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作者tytony (混沌的大氣)
看板TY_Research
標題[情報] 93W TCFA
時間Sun Jul 11 15:30:37 2010
WTPN21 PGTW 110600 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 134.2E TO 14.8N 127.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 110532Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 133.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 133.6E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 110156Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS FLOWING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 110054Z ASCAT PASS ALSO REVEALS 20-KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORMING LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONTINUES TO HAVE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A WESTWARD-PUSHING TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 120600Z.// NNNN -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.67.236
推 Bionut :!!! 07/11 16:51
推 packie :很近! 07/11 16:55
推 DoraBoy :看色調強化圖 93W中心開始爆出白色的對流了 07/11 17:38
→ DoraBoy :搞不好最快今晚 或者明天凌晨就可以升TD了 07/11 17:39
推 DoraBoy :SSD最新的分析 T值已經給到2.0了 這已經是TD的評價了 07/11 17:48
推 v63718x4 :難產期過了嗎!!! 07/11 18:07
推 hcyevi07 :03W出現了 07/11 21:15
推 typhoonnat :升格囉 03W 07/11 21:38
推 typhoonnat :JTWC第一報 http://ppt.cc/P5xa 預估登陸呂宋 40kts 07/11 21:48
推 JJLi :回馬槍！來台灣！回馬槍！來台灣！ 07/11 21:50
→ JJLi :不然快熱死了orz 07/11 21:50
推 DoraBoy :J大好熱血喔XD 不過感覺JTWC的預報是跟著EC的 07/11 21:59
→ DoraBoy :JTWC預測的速度大約是30KM/HR 07/11 22:05
→ DoraBoy :速度那麼快 所以才會撞菲律賓 07/11 22:06
→ DoraBoy :未來觀察的重點應該是在03W的速度吧 07/11 22:06
→ DoraBoy :未來兩天走得愈快 路徑就會愈西 07/11 22:07
→ DoraBoy :反之 如果走到菲東後明顯慢下來的話 那麼台灣就要小 07/11 22:08
→ DoraBoy :心囉 07/11 22:08
→ tytony :JTWC一向都是照模式來報 所以去年盧碧誤差非常大 07/11 22:17
→ tytony :因為模式一直報往西走 07/11 22:18
推 JJLi :可以借來製作好讀板嗎？XDDD 感謝 07/11 22:22
推 JJLi :^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^→→翻譯：可以借轉嗎？XDDD 07/11 22:35
→ tytony :請便 XDD 07/11 22:36
推 databbs :太平洋開始熱鬧起來了!!! 07/11 22:40
推 Harrychou :話說JTWC是不是擋hinet啊?每次都要掛美國proxy才能看 07/11 23:05
推 kavasaki :我也是啊,都去不了JTWC,誰能幫忙一下 07/11 23:28
推 JJLi :轉錄失敗，直接PO新文了… 07/11 23:41
→ tytony :JTWC會擋Hinet是老問題了~ 07/11 23:45
推 a1038874 :被檔這個問題，我知道如何解決，站內信 07/12 00:34
推 typhoonnat :話說GFS +168居然是另一系統登陸北台耶... 07/12 01:26
→ typhoonnat :我知道時間還久啦... 07/12 01:26
推 AbigMouth :差點看成ECFA 07/12 01:55
推 DoraBoy :PGTW 2點的T值分析是 2.5了 可以升TS了吧XD 07/12 02:35
推 DoraBoy :JTWC 最新一報已經給35KTS 的強度了 07/12 03:11
→ DoraBoy :感覺過去24小時內增強的好快喔 07/12 03:11
推 DoraBoy :未來兩天的環境都還算不錯 搞不好有機會看到大怒神XD 07/12 03:13
推 typhoonnat :EC最新一報終於有反應 預估先過呂宋 再登陸廣東西部 07/12 03:26
→ typhoonnat :JMA還是沒有發佈GW 07/12 03:26
推 dallasma :呂宋島西方那塊有機會嗎? 07/12 03:28
推 DoraBoy :03W的渦度還太淺了 GW還要再等等 07/12 03:29
推 DoraBoy :JMA 天氣圖已經給個W了 代表說在為GW作準備了 07/12 04:47
→ DoraBoy :可能今天下午或晚上就會發GW 07/12 04:47
推 navarra :NRL又定位出另一個擾動94W，在8.1N，139.6E， 07/12 05:55
→ navarra :也就是03W東南方的那團環流。今年風季開始有點味道了 07/12 05:56
推 Morbert :NOAA TC形成機率圖 http://tinyurl.com/ldlqmo 07/12 06:35
→ tytony :雅虎首頁的新聞標題居然說"首颱恐形成" (倒) 07/12 08:02
推 ZEALOTGO :沒做功課的記者~剛剛看到也傻眼 07/12 08:14
推 v63718x4 :只會搞笑的記者，他看到第二號颱風應該會裝死(大絕) 07/12 08:29
推 tcytc :中天那個花瓶更可笑，前面說"菲律賓東方已經有颱風" 07/12 08:34
推 v63718x4 :超想對記者放嘴砲大絕的... 07/12 08:43
推 ZEALOTGO :中天花瓶是早上報氣象那個嗎? 07/12 09:01
推 tcytc :樓上如果覺得他像就是囉，我可沒說誰XDD 07/12 09:03
推 v63718x4 :花瓶比氣象局還厲害耶...氣象局該打包了嗎= = 07/12 10:30
※ 編輯: tytony 來自: 140.112.245.236 (07/28 19:16)