[情報] 04W形成

[tytony (混沌的大氣)]

JTWC路徑圖 http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/images/wp042010.gif

180900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 120.9E.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH OF 

MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS

A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED

CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 180513Z AMSR-E 89H IMAGE INDICATED A WELL-

DEFINED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE

SOUTHWEST QUADRANT INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR

IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL LOCATED

JUST EAST OF OKINAWA. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT

POSITION AND 6-HOUR MOTION BASED ON THE AMSR-E AND 172238Z TRMM

IMAGES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 180148Z ASCAT IMAGE

INDICATING NUMEROUS 25-30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS AS WELL AS DVORAK

ESTIMATES OF 25-30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TD 04W IS TRACKING

ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-

NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12. MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS ARE LIMITED TO

WBAR AND GFS, HOWEVER, UKMO, NOGAPS AND JGSM MODEL FIELDS SUPPORT

THE CURRENT TRACK. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH

TAU 24 DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. AFTER TAU 24, ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REACH A

PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF

A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 180321Z JUL 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

(WTPN21 PGTW 180330). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS

10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//


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