作者tytony (混沌的大氣)
看板TY_Research
標題[情報] 98W TCFA
時間Thu Oct 21 10:45:43 2010
WTPN22 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.8N 160.4E TO 24.3N 153.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY
AT 210230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.2N 159.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4N
160.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 159.9E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST
OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH A
SMALL, WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 202258Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
(TPW) PRODUCTS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE TRANSITIONING FROM A
COLD-CORE TO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM WITH THE LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN
A POCKET OF INCREASING, MORE FAVORABLE TPW VALUES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT. THE LLCC IS DEVELOPING
UNDER A TUTT CELL, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220300Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 146.7E.//
NNNN
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◆ From: 140.112.67.78
→ lahiboy :啊！！上面貼錯！！上面那個網址是 95W 的！ XDD 10/21 10:47
→ arcticircle :這隻應該是北轉颱吧 10/21 10:47
推 navarra :98W應該在遠海就會北上；95W倒是值得注意 10/21 10:48
→ navarra :如果之後副高西伸維持一段時間，95W是有可能接近臺灣 10/21 10:49
推 WuCH1022 :98W可能是從冷心轉成暖心 則則 10/21 10:51
推 ICEFTP :果然又在趕進度...= = 10/21 10:58
推 navarra :不過即使這兩個都能成颱，西太平洋也只有15個 10/21 11:00
→ navarra :還要再3個才能「打開跌停」 10/21 11:01
推 ICEFTP :其實有夠梅姬真的很開眼界了.... 10/21 11:04
→ ikaridon :颱風：兵貴精不貴多 10/21 12:04
→ BiboMonkey :因為有活動要安排，想要先參考一下 謝謝 T_T 10/21 12:11
推 yoyodiy : 颱風又要來了喔 10/21 12:36
→ FTKBOYS :還很遠~請繼續關注 鯰魚颱風吧 10/21 12:43
推 snocia :突然發現這個也GW了...(JMA) 這樣三颱鼎立機率大增XD 10/21 12:48