[情報] TS 04B(Giri) 形成

[Morbert (融)]

位於孟加拉灣的熱帶低壓98B已經在下午升格為TC 04B(Giri)

有機會上看STC，然後就進入緬甸了..

雖然跟我們沒啥關係，不過也提供源源不絕的西南氣流給梅姬呢~

以下轉貼印度新德里(北印度洋RSMC)的預報分析


DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI         21-10-2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600
 UTC OF 21 OCTOBER, 2010  BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 21 OCTOBER, 2010 (.)

THE DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY
STATIONARY, INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT
0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 21ST OCTOBER 2010 OVER THE SAME AREA NEAR
LATITUDE 17.50N AND 91.50E, ABOUT 350 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SITTWE
(48062) MYANMAR, 450 KM SOUTH OF COX BAZAR (41992) BANGLADESH AND 650
KM SOUTHEAST OF DIGHA (42901) WEST BENGAL, INDIA.

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 30
 KNOTS. GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY ROUGH
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
ABOUT 1000 HPA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BANDING PATTERN WITH FURTHER
ORGANISATION. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.0. ASSOCIATED
BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER
EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 14.0O N AND
20.0ON AND LONGITUDE EAST OF 87.0O E.THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -800C IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD
INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A CYCLONIC STORM. IT WOULD MOVE
NORTHWARDS INITIALLY AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND
CROSS NORTH MYANMAR AND ADJOINING BANGLADESH COASTS BETWEEN
TEKNAF, BANGLADESH(41998 ) AND KYAUKPYU, MYANMAR (48071)
NEAR SITTWE BY TOMORROW, THE 22ND OCTOBER 2010 EVENING.

BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL
TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE
GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:
DATE/TIME(UTC) POSITION (LAT. 0N/ LONG0E)SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE
WIND SPEED (KMPH)
21-10-2010/0300  17.5/91.5        55-65 GUSTING TO 75
21-10-2010/0600  17.5/91.5       65-75 GUSTING TO 85
21-10-2010/1200  18.0/91.5       75-85 GUSTING TO 95
21-10-2010/1800  18.5/92.0       85-95 GUSTING TO 105
22-10-2010/0000  19.0/92.5       95-105 GUSTING TO 115
22-10-2010/1200  20.0/93.0      115-125 GUSTING TO 135
23-10-2010/0000  21.0/93.5       85-95 GUSTING TO 105
23-10-2010/1200  22.0/94.0       40-50 GUSTING TO 60

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS
LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
24 HOUR TENDENCY OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(280-320 C), AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OVER CENTRAL BAY OF
BENGAL ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT IS LESS THAN 100 KJ/CM2. THE RELATIVE
VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.
THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE,
WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 200N AT 200 HPA LEVEL.
THERE IS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL
INDIA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE AT MID-TROPOSPHERIC
 LEVEL AND IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DIRECTION.=


以下轉貼JTWC的預報分析

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
WTIO31 PGTW 210900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 17.5N 91.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 91.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.0N 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.8N 93.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.8N 94.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.9N 95.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 91.9E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z.
//
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 91.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH OF
CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE SPIKED FROM PGTW AND KNES
IN RESPONSE TO RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THIS
CYCLONE. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT A 45 TO 55 KNOT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 210405Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS AT LEAST 40 KNOTS
AT THE SYSTEM CENTER. THERE IS FAIR TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION AND 12-HOUR MOTION BASED ON A 210039Z TMI AND A
210403Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE. MODERATE WESTERLIES ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL FACILITATE A GENERAL
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TILL LANDFALL WITH BURMA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24.
THE CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND TWO WEAK TO MODERATE
OUTFLOW MECHANISMS. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN WALKED SOUTH, CLOSER TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS, TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND
220900Z.//

0410101918 160N 930E  15
0410102000 162N 925E  15
0410102006 164N 921E  20
0410102012 166N 917E  25
0410102018 170N 914E  30
0410102100 173N 915E  35
0410102106 175N 918E  45










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◆ From: 59.104.188.38
推 navarra     :這個系統的發展倒是比西太平洋那兩個都快
→ navarra     :可見西南季風的支持還是很重要的因素
推 loveppears4u:所以這是梅姬女王的丫鬟！？XDDD（幫女王補水）
推 apolarbear  :這颱風要怎麼翻成中文？嘰哩嗎？
→ knmtou      :吉利好像比較好聽XD
→ Morbert     :說是吉利 但是對緬甸來講是噩夢吧
推 azero       :媽媽~吉利~小叮噹~~
推 b1987517    :果然是丫鬟...吉利，我渴了，給我拿水來
推 w61036      :哈 講得出媽媽~吉利~小叮噹~的板大！ （握！）
→ BUDIRM      :就是機勒
→ Phalange    :聽的懂媽媽吉利小叮噹的，都已經....
推 LCW2001     :媽媽吉利小叮噹耶，久遠的回憶
推 wedgewu     :媽媽~吉利~小叮噹~那時候 差點就養一隻狗