[情報] 96W TCFA

[tytony (混沌的大氣)]

WTPN21 PGTW 012030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 8.6N 111.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 012000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 111.4E. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.8N
111.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 111.4E, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP COVECTION FLARING OVER THE 
CENTER AND ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLANK. A 011417Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS
A SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND 20-25
KNOT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY. A  011308Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES AN ORGANIZED LLCC
WITH LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT INTO THE
EAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL, THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT (SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS)
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE WEAK DEVELOPMENT, ENHANCED BY THE NORTHEAST SURGE, AND THE
CIRCULATION HAS STRENGTHENED DESPITE THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING, THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
022030Z.//
NNNN


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◆ From: 140.113.3.42
推 amou1030    :有人可以翻譯一下嗎  冏
推 DoraBoy     :已升格為01W... 不過沒啥前途
→ tytony      :海溫偏低
推 arcticircle :沉睡的Dora大覺醒了嗎.哈哈哈
推 SWW         :dora大好久不見XD
推 cgunavy     :版上有不少人都是風季才會浮出水面^^
推 aa1477888   :樓上指的是我嗎XD?
推 JJLi        :XDDDD