[情報] TCFA-90W

[markshian (markshian)]

WTPN21 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.0N 158.4E TO 19.6N 152.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 110000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.1N 157.9E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 102226Z
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN INCREASINGLY MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. CENTRAL CONVECTION IS CYCLIC AND HAS NOT PERSISTED OVER
THE LLCC DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CAUSING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. A 102221Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED LLCC IN THE EAST-WEST DIRECTION WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS (>20 KNOTS) EAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF ENHANCED
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL
TO THE EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO
22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST QUADRANTS, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120600Z.//
NNNN


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推 goldmark    :大隻颱醞釀中
推 david213    :誰來翻譯   我看不懂XD
推 goldmark    :琉球東南方那個也轉起來了
→ markshian   :琉球東南方那個是92W,也許是EC今天清晨預測會跟90W
→ markshian   :互動的那個系統?等等看看三點的最新報...
推 kit279      :轉一轉都往琉球去了嗎
→ markshian   :EC這一報大改囉,跑出90W在琉球東南方後就開始北上了
→ goldmark    :金鐘罩持續發威 XD
推 WuCH1022    :希望畢旅能得救
→ DoraBoy     :還是先把注意力放在92W身上吧 畢竟離台灣較近
→ DoraBoy     :遠洋的大餅不一定吃的到
推 web2312     :EC 96小時以上的中期預測看看就好= =
推 web2312     :EC 48小時預測 地面圖 850hpa風場圖疊合當前雲圖
→ web2312     :http://tinyurl.com/64fe6k8
推 web2312     :升格08W了
→ markshian   :JMA目前是沒什麼動作,連天氣圖依舊維持普通低壓
推 web2312     :今晚風場掃描疊合IR雲圖
→ web2312     :http://tinyurl.com/6aqz89s
推 aa1477888   :JTWC這發文不附圖 此風不可長阿XD
推 aa1477888   :檯面上 94W,91W,92W.Invest(Low)還有08W
→ aa1477888   :94W等待撤編 90W,08W靠很近 會被吃掉吧...
→ aa1477888   :不對 90W和08W是同一隻XD
→ aa1477888   :91W,92W也滿近 應該會整合
→ aa1477888   :燒燙燙的08W第一報來也http://i.imgur.com/5dUfC.gif
→ aa1477888   :短期內一路向西 強度應該會有100Kt以上喔
→ aa1477888   :不過JMA還是不動 這....不看好 不可能吧
推 chris1174   :繼續增強的話JMA還是得升 所以暫時不用理會JMA不升格
→ aa1477888   :08W的LLCC建構得不錯 前面環境還可以 應該會一路增強
→ chris1174   :的動作 到是這之的路徑 往西行這段走得愈快 看起來
→ chris1174   :就會愈接近台灣 以這之道時候的強度的話 對台灣來說
→ chris1174   :應該不是生就是死XD(一路西行可能變成西北颱 但如果
→ chris1174   :提早北轉 那就是開防護罩了XD)
推 aa1477888   :除了08W 91W,92W要注意 說不定會先發展起來靠近台灣
→ aa1477888   :也是有數值跑出08W和91Wor92W互擾的結果
→ aa1477888   :看來這禮拜開始的西太 將會相當精彩 請不要轉台XD
推 aa1477888   :原來是GFS的數值跑出藤原效應...
→ aa1477888   :另外 EC颱風越強會越準...? 初始場的關係?
→ aa1477888   :接下來觀察重點:強度,藤原效應,91W還是92W會發展?
→ aa1477888   :NOGAPS的數值出現滯留是怎麼回事...
推 henryliujjvv:http://ppt.cc/6Qci
推 web2312     :JTWC今晚20時預測說明提到120小時後在菲東的熱帶擾動
→ web2312     :會與08W互動,因此在預測路徑上做出向西南偏的預測
推 logdog      :回aa大 ec今年是通通不准 連桑達也不準
→ logdog      :我們現在關注的重點 應該是他如何主宰西北太平洋
→ logdog      :侵台與否 週末再來討論吧(煙
推 aa1477888   :EC能不能雪恥就看08W了 XD
→ aa1477888   :我是覺得91W或92W有可能在這禮拜發展起來就是...
推 aa1477888   :強度或許不會太好 但我想可以影響到08W就是...
→ aa1477888   :也就是說 JTWC(GFS)的預測 我覺得可能性很高
推 aa1477888   :JMA最新天氣圖已經把08W標上熱低了 以20km/h向西前進