作者markshian (markshian)
看板TY_Research
標題[情報] 11W形成
時間Mon Jul 25 22:12:37 2011
WTPN32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 5.6N 147.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 5.6N 147.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 6.3N 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 7.2N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 8.3N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 9.7N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 11.4N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 14.0N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.3N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 5.8N 147.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 242251Z JUL 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 242300). NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z,
260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
路徑圖:
http://tinyurl.com/3wgo3kn
到底會是10W還是11W搶下納坦XD
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推 ilutc :台灣好像又開了防護罩了XD 07/25 22:22
推 aa1477888 :10W&11W:誰要出坦? 07/25 22:49
→ aa1477888 :為什麼會有這張 這張就是台灣開防護罩後的走法XD 07/25 22:51
→ aa1477888 :如果我想得沒錯 10W和11W都會像這樣閃過台灣之類的XD 07/25 22:51
→ aa1477888 :另外就是 這張圖完全沒有科學根據 除了第一個中心 07/25 22:52
→ aa1477888 :老J這報峰值給到90阿... 相當看好的樣子 07/25 22:53
→ aa1477888 :JMA的最新天氣並沒有標示TD 07/25 22:55
推 v63718x4 :11W增強的滿快的... 07/25 23:25
推 howard2639 :目前11W增強速度增快,未來會北上!但一切取決於高壓再 07/26 00:43
→ howard2639 :度增強是否會將11W梅花颱風向台灣壓過來,須持續觀察! 07/26 00:44
推 fantasymew :樓上，11W還不一定會是梅花颱風 07/26 03:49
推 killseven :我到絕得這種遠洋颱風來的機率都不怎麼高... 07/26 06:03
→ killseven :今年高壓其實也不怎麼配合 還是認為即使未來偏西 07/26 06:04
→ killseven :偏向大陸機率可能還比台灣高些 07/26 06:04
推 killseven :而如果未來這颱風強度偏強 越偏北機率就越高 高壓哀 07/26 06:07