[情報] 98W TCFA

[hcyevi07 (hcyED SURFACE WINDS ARE)]

WTPN21 PGTW 222000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 139.8E TO 15.2N 135.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 221730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 138.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
141.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 138.9E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPROVED CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. A 221642Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGERY
DEPICTS CURVED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT
YAP HAS DROPPED APPROXIMATELY 2 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED
LLCC AND DEEP CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
232000Z.//
NNNN

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9811.gif

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