http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9412.gif
WTPN21 PGTW 202000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1N 147.1E TO 15.8N 142.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 146.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4N
149.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 146.5E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE IR AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATE AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. A
201113Z ASCAT PASS DOES NOT DEPICT A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, IT
DOES INDICATE AN AREA OF SHARP TURING EXTENDING FROM A BROADER
SURFACE TROUGH. HIGHER WINDS (20 TO 30 KNOTS) ARE ALSO EVIDENT ON
THE OUTER NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE WEST. NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE LLCC WILL CLOSE OFF AND ORGANIZE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT AND THE IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
212000Z.//
NNNN
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