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WTPN21 PGTW 302200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 130.7E TO 14.7N 126.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 302130Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 130.1E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2N
131.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 130.1E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING AND INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 301916Z SSMI
IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A DEVELOPING
ANTICYCLONE WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL AS LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT AND
UNANIMOUS IN DEVELOPING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS WITH A TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUAL RE-CURVE SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON
THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
312200Z.//
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