WTPN21 PGTW 251700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5N 134.8E TO 15.9N 129.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
251630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N
134.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8N
135.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 134.2E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTH
OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LLCC AND A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
SEMI-CIRCLE. A 251335Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE DEVELOPING LLCC. A 251207Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. A SHIP
REPORT AT 25/12Z (200 NM NW OF CENTER) SUPPORTS THE 20 KNOT
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT WITH WINDS 080/19 KNOTS AND SLP NEAR 1006 MB.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL NEAR 23N 137E. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND
SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 12-36
HOURS AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN LUZON. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
261700Z.//
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