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WTPN21 PGTW 031900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9N 120.2E TO 18.7N 114.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA AT 031830Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 119.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 122.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 119.4E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM TAGAYTAY CITY SHOW THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED AND REFORMED OFFSHORE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. ADDITIONALLY, THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AS EVIDENCED BY THE COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON THE ANIMATED IR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 05 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 041900Z. // NNNN -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 122.123.164.212