WTPN21 PGTW 031900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9N 120.2E TO 18.7N 114.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND RADAR
DATA AT 031830Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
15.6N 119.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 122.2E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 119.4E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) AND
RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM TAGAYTAY CITY SHOW THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS MOVED AND REFORMED OFFSHORE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
ADDITIONALLY, THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AS
EVIDENCED BY THE COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON THE ANIMATED IR. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 05 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF THE RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM AT 28-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO
THE FAVORABLE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041900Z. //
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