作者logdog (風暴之軌跡)
看板TY_Research
標題[情報] 92w TCFA GW
時間Fri Jul 20 22:07:53 2012
WTPN21 PGTW 200800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.9N 124.6E TO 19.7N 119.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AT 200600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N
124.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.8N
125.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 124.3E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EAST OF NORTHERN LUZON. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT
FLOW IS FUELING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW SUPERIMPOSED OVER THE LLCC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND THE LLCC IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SLOW CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF MORE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. BASED
ON THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEVELOPED LLCC AND ANTICIPATED IMPROVEMENT
IN THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210800Z.//
NNNN
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GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 17.3N 123.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 18.5N 121.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 43N 145E 47N 153E
53N 160E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 32N 167E 39N 164E 40N 149E 43N
145E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 38N 151E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 27N 140E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 52N 152E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 49N 173E EAST 10 KT.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.
風切變一微弱
馬上就響警報了嗎
去哪裡都無所謂了啦
捲些雲過來降降溫就好
這幾天真是太變態了
天天發高燒
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◆ From: 123.192.212.133
推 aa1477888 :還是覺得JMA會等進南海再升格... 07/20 22:18
推 DoraBoy :從風場來看 我覺得主中心在19N 122E附近 07/21 01:21
→ DoraBoy :但是菲西和台灣西側都有產生正渦度 勢必影響主中心 07/21 01:22
→ DoraBoy :的走向 07/21 01:22
推 DoraBoy :台中梧棲應該是目前全台灣海平面氣壓最低的地方 07/21 02:14
→ DoraBoy :(測站海拔7m) 目前氣壓999.5hPa 換算成海平面氣壓 07/21 02:15
→ DoraBoy :約1000.4hPa 07/21 02:16
推 DoraBoy :老J升格09W JMA沒命名 兩家定位也差蠻多的 07/21 03:21
→ DoraBoy :等早上可見光出來就知道了 07/21 03:22
推 DoraBoy :從最新低層掃描來看 感覺中心在19.5N 121.7E 07/21 05:21
→ DoraBoy :JMA 02時的定位應該比較接近真正的位置 07/21 05:22
推 DoraBoy :SSD 05時定位在20.5N 121.1E 這個很特別XD 07/21 05:25
→ DoraBoy :但SSD的定位 看雷達的話 又不太可能 07/21 05:27
推 DoraBoy :照JMA凌晨的數值 09W大約會從台灣陸地300KM外經過 07/21 06:21
推 DoraBoy :7:30的台灣可見光雲圖 很清楚可以看到 中心在19.7N 07/21 07:33
→ DoraBoy :120.9E 07/21 07:33
推 mapleegg :難道dp大的預測模型要成真了嗎 07/21 07:37
→ DoraBoy :實際中心比機構定位的還要北 CWB發海警的機會增加不 07/21 07:37
→ DoraBoy :少 目前09W距離台灣本島陸地只有250KM 07/21 07:37
→ DoraBoy :如果走西北西 距離應會在200KM以內 相當於風圈100KM 07/21 07:38
→ DoraBoy :情況下 發海警的門檻 07/21 07:39
→ DoraBoy :如果走西北 那更不用說 搞不好還會發路警 07/21 07:39