作者logdog (風暴之軌跡)
看板TY_Research
標題[情報] 93W TCFA
時間Fri Jul 27 21:56:16 2012
WTPN21 PGTW 271400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 128.4E TO 16.4N 124.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
271300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N
127.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 129.2E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 127.6E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A VERY BROAD SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED FEEDER BANDS THAT HAS
FURTHER CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A
271144Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT CLEARLY OUTLINES THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS WEAKENED AS THE STORM MOTION
BECAME IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THE CYCLONE IS BEING
STEERED WESTWARD BY A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. IN ADDITION TO THE IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE PERENNIALLY FAVORABLE FOR
CYCLOGENESIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
DUE TO THE IMPROVED BANDING AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
281400Z. //
NNNN
--------------------------------------------------------
TPPN11 PGTW 271308 COR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (E OF PHILIPPINES)
B. 27/1132Z
C. 12.7N
D. 127.6E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/12HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .30 ON LOG 10
SPIRAL YIELDS A 1.5 DT. MET/PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
27/0906Z 12.4N 128.0E SSMS
27/0909Z 12.4N 128.3E SSMS
BELMONDO
CI 1.5了
結果 "蘇拉"颱風會是93W 嘛 XD?
--
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◆ From: 123.192.212.133
推 aa1477888 :說不定小J會打老J臉XD 07/27 22:05
→ logdog :小J今年都依職在打老J的臉啊 XD 07/27 22:05
推 arcticircle :衛星雲圖上看起來結構還是很鬆散耶.對流不強烈 07/27 22:17
→ arcticircle :沒想到已經TCFA了 07/27 22:17
推 web2312 :從低層掃描可以看到banding改善很多,而且行進的前方 07/27 22:19
→ web2312 :風切將會好轉,所以就發布TCFA了 07/27 22:20
→ chiy16 :觀察95W竟然向東移，似乎跟他右邊大冷低展開互動了 07/27 23:11
推 HellFly :是高層雲系東移，底層環流還是緩慢向西走 07/28 00:53
推 arcticircle :準備裸奔?? 07/28 01:31
推 arcticircle :看來93W還是要搶先一步囉 07/28 01:43
推 packie :花蓮外海強回波！ 07/28 02:46
推 loveppears4u:早上一看衛星雲圖真的好驚點 好大好壯觀啊！＠＠ 07/28 07:17
推 arcticircle :今天應該會命名吧.. 07/28 07:32
→ logdog :93W 殺到1000HPA 極限了 再強就TS囉 07/28 07:50
推 DoraBoy :93W這種範圍較大的TC 搞不好998hPa 還是TD 07/28 07:59
→ logdog :EC說他會把90趴的對流脫光光 剩下一個子彈颱XD 07/28 08:00
→ logdog :現在看起來 93W似乎也沒有能力把外圍雲系捲入的樣子 07/28 08:01
→ DoraBoy :附一下某張500hPa測試天氣圖 (7/27 18UTC) 07/28 08:02
→ DoraBoy :白線是5880線 紫線是5820線 另外還有標高壓/低壓中心 07/28 08:04
→ DoraBoy :這是我最近在寫的新程式 藉由讀取wgmsdlm4.GIF和 07/28 08:05
→ DoraBoy :wgmsvor.GIF這兩張圖 1分鐘內就可推估出500hPa層面 07/28 08:06
→ DoraBoy :的天氣圖 當然準確度還不高 可能會有不小誤差 07/28 08:06
→ DoraBoy :但是優點是隨時都可以丟最新的圖進去分析 例如8點半 07/28 08:07
→ DoraBoy :的圖一出 馬上就可以算出結果 而不須等到12點KMA的 07/28 08:08
→ DoraBoy :天氣圖出來 07/28 08:08
→ DoraBoy :算是個有趣的小小程式 (當然還在改良和測試中...) 07/28 08:08
→ DoraBoy :以後等這個程式改到足夠好時 就可以應用在小程式和 07/28 08:09
→ DoraBoy :TCFS上 預期將會明顯提升這兩個程式的路徑預測準確度 07/28 08:10
→ DoraBoy :上面那張圖 我對照了一下 除了台灣西南邊的H (>5880) 07/28 08:11
→ DoraBoy :可能是誤差較大的區域外 其餘大致上跟27 12UTC的KMA 07/28 08:12
→ DoraBoy :天氣圖沒有差太多 (當然還是有誤差存在) 07/28 08:12