WTPN21 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
070 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.7N 146.0E TO 26.6N 143.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
280530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N
145.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 146.6E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 145.6E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
IWO-TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST.
THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 280301Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE LLCC
HAD BEGUN TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER KYUSHU, JAPAN, HAS ASSUMED STEERING OF THE SYSTEM. THIS NEW
DEVELOPMENT, ALONG WITH A WESTWARD IN-PHASE STORM MOTION, WILL CAUSE
A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290600Z. //
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http://tinyurl.com/cvsfxl6
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