作者markshian (markshian)
看板TY_Research
標題[情報] 98W TCFA
時間Mon Sep 10 22:07:54 2012
WTPN21 PGTW 101400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.5N 135.7E TO 14.2N 133.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 101200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.2N 135.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7N
136.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 135.0E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTH-
NORTH EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE NEAR THE CENTER. A 101101Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP
BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC WITH OUTER BANDS IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE BEGINNING TO FORM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
THAT 98W IS UNDER A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE WITH OUTFLOW IN ALL
DIRECTIONS AND WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
ORGANIZATION AND EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111400Z.//
NNNN
http://tinyurl.com/cc7kfym
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◆ From: 122.117.32.41
→ aa1477888 :好 上工!! 09/10 22:08
推 youngscott :目前預報還是改來改去 但這個似乎是北上離開 09/10 22:12
推 KobeFuck :喔喔 原來如此 09/10 22:15
→ markshian :變數太多了,想想07年柯羅莎 08年辛樂克,當初預報也是 09/10 22:27
→ markshian :改來改去,最後也都來台灣,秋天的颱風動態很複雜,幾乎 09/10 22:28
→ markshian :是牽一髮而動全身,再觀望看看吧@"@ 09/10 22:28
推 youngscott :對阿 所以說目前還在變動階段 目前預報是北上 09/10 22:30
→ youngscott :但據說GFS這報有往西調了一些 我還沒FOLLOW到.. 09/10 22:31
→ markshian :其實GFS前幾報還有跑出過125E,並在北部海面轉西南西 09/10 22:34
→ markshian :也曾跑出過130E後轉東北XDD,變數仍大 09/10 22:35
推 p86506 :周四要去澎湖= =私心希望＿＿海上 09/10 22:57
→ Lxr :過幾天再看看~ 09/10 23:03
推 keroromoa :真的變數很多，像辛樂克二世原本各家都估他會北上離 09/10 23:39
→ keroromoa :開，誰知道太平洋高壓突然就伸了過來，而且伸的有夠 09/10 23:40
→ keroromoa :慢，結果造成辛樂克慢吞吞讓大家措手不及 09/10 23:41
推 keroromoa :看好明晚到後天升格成17W 09/10 23:46
推 lboevceky :蠻有型的，未來應該很可觀 09/11 01:06
→ warrenchen :請教, tinyurl.com/cc7kfym 找不到檔案耶/w\ 09/12 00:18
推 warrenchen :Soga~ 感恩，本想參考看看，以後要找TD alert 到哪找 09/12 00:25
→ warrenchen :usno.navy.mil? (抖 .mil 是.. ... (艸) 09/12 00:26
→ markshian :這是FNMOC,通常資料更新會比較快 09/12 07:40