[情報] 95W TCFA

作者keroromoa (傻傻)

看板TY_Research

標題[情報] 95W TCFA

時間Sun Sep 30 21:13:56 2012

WTPN22 PGTW 301200 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300152Z SEP 12// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 300200)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 185 NM RADIUS OF 15.1N 113.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY- CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 301132Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 113.1E. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 113.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 113.1E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONSOLIDATING OVER A QUICKLY IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT 07 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS IMPROVING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WITH A POLEWARD CHANNEL STARTING TO DEVELOP. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS WERE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IN A FAVORABLE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 011200Z. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 150.7E.// NNNN http://ppt.cc/pVi~　（代理網站亦可） 94W呢？？ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 1.162.207.231

推 skn60694 :20w 09/30 21:17

推 ICEFTP :94W目前是預測北偏去了 09/30 21:20

→ keroromoa :原來這麼快就升囉，難怪剛才老J只有放95W 09/30 21:21

推 skn60694 :太平洋暫時沒事有興趣可以看看14L Nadine再創人生新 09/30 21:21

→ skn60694 :高峰目前來到#71(17.5天) 說不定會成為最長壽颶風 09/30 21:22

→ keroromoa :那雅普島那顆可能不會被20W吞掉了 09/30 21:24

推 webline :有個約翰是不是活的比她長.....唉....... 09/30 21:27

→ webline :娜汀不是9月8號開始形成？9月11號成形嗎？17.5天是怎 09/30 21:28

→ webline :麼算的0.0？？發問中 09/30 21:28

→ keroromoa :71/4=17.75 09/30 21:33

推 skn60694 :我是算71報中夾了70個間隔啦... 就像電線桿一樣 09/30 21:38

推 webline :謝謝，因為我查過維基，上面的寫法是9月11日活耀中 09/30 21:40

→ webline :所以有點一頭霧水.這上面的寫法是從9月11號開始= =？ 09/30 21:41

推 easydo :當初約翰活了一個月這個那丁想破紀錄還有的撐了 09/30 21:44

推 webline :約翰是從大西洋跑到太平洋的妖怪，還升到貓5過，娜丁 09/30 22:01

→ webline :最多也不過到貓2，況且只在大西洋轉圈圈沒晃到太平洋 09/30 22:02

→ webline :.......等一下來去找只在大西洋逛街的最長壽颶風吧.. 09/30 22:03

推 webline :剛看了一下，娜丁最多只到貓1？貓1還撐到現在，這小 09/30 22:07

→ webline :妞也可算傳奇了吧XDD~~可惜這小妞還是會走(？)的 09/30 22:08

推 biostar :在看EC的十日預測的歐洲，看到大西洋上一直有個低壓 09/30 22:16

→ biostar :停留在北緯三十度左右，就是 14L Nadine ？ 09/30 22:17

→ keroromoa :娜定這種路徑在大西洋常見嗎?還是和韋恩一樣難得一遇 09/30 22:40

推 webline :嗯...應該是吧= =？ 09/30 22:42

推 webline :.....不知道，之前我本來以為她跟其他的颶風一樣，拐 09/30 22:44

→ webline :個彎甩到加拿大，後來看到她往非洲跑去，又轉個彎像 09/30 22:45

→ webline :想回美國，又開始轉圈圈....我還在盯下去，這小妞好 09/30 22:46

→ webline :玩的咧.........(偷藏活力餅乾在身後~~開玩笑的XDD) 09/30 22:47

推 webline :這麼古錐的小妞太早掛就不好玩了(亂講話被毆飛中XD) 09/30 22:49

推 evanzxcv :Nadine真的超會玩XD 已經轉了一圈現在正在轉第二圈 10/01 19:50

→ evanzxcv :很有機會再訪亞速群島重點是還有模式預報這次北上後 10/01 19:51

→ evanzxcv :槽線仍勾不到而往西偏如果真的勾不到就要轉第三圈了 10/01 19:52