[討論] JTWC:91w

[qq00212369 (九天中)]

我只懂一句: 風切很大

剩下交給版上前輩們 !



JTWC：LOW
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.3N 135.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 70 NM SOUTH OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE WITH WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 221452Z SHOWS A WEAK, (05-10 KNOTS) BROAD
CIRCULATION IN THE AREA AND A WESTERLY WIND BURST ALONG THE EQUATOR
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 230107Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO IMPROVE BUT
OVERALL REMAINS POOR. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LLCC IS
EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS PROVIDING MODERATE OUTFLOW
AND MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.


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推 wesley23    :看下星期到底那家準啦....
推 maverick01  :一副營養不良樣 我想應該快掛了吧 XDDDD
推 HellFly     :當他營養充足的樣子就是變TD了...這是擾動會有的樣子
推 aitt        :看了氣象局月長期預報.9月初似乎會有強降雨可能
→ aitt        :怕的是那種共伴降雨.因為九月東北季風出現..
→ aitt        :就算沒直接南下到台灣.但只要台灣附近有颱風..
→ aitt        :還是有辦法引發共伴強降雨..
推 vaughn      :九月初的預報，參考度很低
推 jhvyht      :氣象局月長期天氣展望說第二週北方天氣系統逐漸建立,
→ jhvyht      :氣溫有下降趨勢.第二週就是九月初了.