[情報] 91w TCFA

[puretd (Touch Down)]

WTPN22 PGTW 250130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 130.5E TO 17.4N 126.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
242330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N
130.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4N
132.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 130.0E, APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, BASED ON AN OLDER 241452Z OSCAT PASS. ALTHOUGH
THE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN WEAKER NEAR THE CENTER, THE IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED VENTILATION OF THE SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN COMBINATION WITH FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, THE POSSIBILITY FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE. CURRENTLY MUCH OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING OVERALL ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260130Z.//

小J也給熱低了
http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/a.html

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 219.70.204.47
→ truffaut    :http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/a.html 明早民達那峨
→ truffaut    :http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/al.html 還以為往西
→ truffaut    :結果往北
推 HANASUCIA   :日本貨
→ puretd      :http://tinyurl.com/lhqfkfm JTWC中心定位在偏東
推 shadow53250 :目前數值比較有可能轉向去日本@@？
推 logdog      :H大可能沒看預測吧 目前數直驅向台灣東南方海面
推 killseven   :卡大好像是說  如果東南面北轉影響較小 去日本可能阿
推 logdog      :那是卡大的預測 不是數值的預測 數值現在沒說去日本
推 zonslan     :不衝突吧  往北會接近台灣東部海面 就看多接近
推 logdog      :我也沒有說有衝突 只是數值目前沒預報到那麼遠
→ logdog      :數值目前只報到"台灣以東"轉向 轉向後市日本韓國不知
→ logdog      :而且這個轉向的極西點 可能可以讓台灣發到颱風警報
推 packie      :話說皮瓦居然還在
→ puretd      :GFS預測在台灣東部海面轉東北往日本前進
推 logdog      :發報時間是什麼時候 可以貼個圖上來嗎
推 youngscott  :gfs從南海到東北轉都預測過了 可信度保留。。
→ puretd      :http://tinyurl.com/mt8aosf 我是看LOOP圖@@
→ puretd      :拜託別來啊 旅行都因為潭美延一周了
推 zonslan     :GFS的可信度一向確實是比較偏低... 這model容易將
推 logdog      :各家都搖搖擺擺 EC好像比較穩一點 不過也是搖搖擺擺
推 zonslan     :西風槽預測的較明顯 副高預測的較弱
推 logdog      :九月初的西峰槽可以把BT的副高逼到什麼程度 好奇
推 jasontom    :高壓現在還是蠻強的...已經伸到廣東一帶...
→ jasontom    :http://ppt.cc/-CO6
推 youngscott  :照gfs和cmc三天後就靠近了
推 logdog      :大槽對副高的打擊程度仍不明朗 也是路線不定的原因
→ youngscott  :CMC延到週四~週五 和EC一樣 CMC一直堅持衝台灣?!
推 logdog      :EC也表示台灣目前很危險
→ youngscott  :其實滿佩服CMC的 是所有數值第一個預測會有熱低生成
→ youngscott  :而且已經堅持四天了....
→ puretd      :過去三小時偏西北西走 -0.4 +0.1
推 web2312     :EC 00Z 地面風場預測~ http://youtu.be/sZ0zU1Zg7GA
→ web2312     :EC 00Z 500hpa高度場~http://youtu.be/n9CN1a_OYi4
→ tytony      :八月底西風槽就這麼深 今年中緯度波動真得很活躍
→ puretd      :http://i.imgur.com/kXzCsN7.gif
→ puretd      :http://i.imgur.com/5ZJKK9r.png EC預測往日本前進
→ puretd      :應該說是日本或韓國
→ puretd      :現在連CMC都東修不少了
推 web2312     :EC系集來看後期離散程度還是挺大的,再觀察看看
推 logdog      :副高依舊堅挺 勢力未有變化 EC也只是在喘測
推 webline     :這個會來歹完？沒注意 = =
推 web2312     :EC 12Z 登台, 宜花交界登陸
推 web2312     :EC 12Z 地面風場預測~ http://youtu.be/L5Nmk-POMCE
推 web2312     :EC 12Z 500hpa高度場~ http://youtu.be/t53_4aN9feQ
推 zonslan     :EC 12z的預報實在是 .....  先侵台 之後併入鋒面
推 zonslan     :鋒面東移再度到台灣 然後在東海二度發展? 囧
推 killseven   :看它上來路徑有點類似 卡梅基跟桃芝的感覺