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作者tytony (混沌的大氣)
看板TY_Research
標題[情報] 15W形成
時間Sun Sep 1 22:46:33 2013
圖:http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1513.gif
文:http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1513web.txt WTPN31 PGTW 011500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010921ZSEP13// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 25.9N 124.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 25.9N 124.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 26.7N 125.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 27.5N 126.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 28.2N 126.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 28.5N 127.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 29.5N 127.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 31.7N 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 35.9N 130.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 124.5E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 197 NM WEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 010921Z SEP 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW010930).// NNNN -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 123.240.89.120
推 zonslan :路徑圖第一個點 從桃園登陸 穿過台北盆地 頭城出海XD 09/01 22:54
→ James0322 :不要阿我禮拜二要去日本耶 09/01 22:57
推 Trust18 :!! 09/01 22:59
推 keroromoa :前面是蘇力的反方向路徑XD 09/01 23:02
→ bismarck3025:連結好像都開不了... 09/01 23:05
→ evilcherry :到日本也變溫帶氣旋了 就當作電車停駛數小時吧 09/01 23:11
→ evilcherry :另感覺這真的是在斜風區的南端生成 不熱不溫 09/01 23:21
推 ghghfftjack :網址連不上去 是我的問題嗎? 09/01 23:38
→ keroromoa :Hinet會擋JTWC，請用代理http://anonymouse.org/ 09/01 23:39
→ keroromoa :或是用FNMOC也可看JTWC的預測路徑圖（不會被擋） 09/01 23:40
推 physbook :應該是jtwc擋hinet... 09/01 23:42
推 ghghfftjack :謝謝樓上 09/01 23:42
→ physbook :直接連 http://goo.gl/vdVw4 09/01 23:43
→ hinajian :Hinet使用者多來源雜，加上很多人資安沒做好變殭屍.. 09/01 23:55
推 bismarck3025:感謝~~~ 09/01 23:58
→ approved :如果15W發展起來 不會吸到北方乾冷空氣嗎 09/02 00:11
→ evilcherry :就是會 所以會在數天內成為溫帶系統GG 09/02 00:19
推 prettyman :那是否意味它對日本的威脅會遠大於台灣 09/02 00:21
推 s93015a :冷(雖然乾)空氣和暖空氣的可用位能也是這個系統目前 09/02 00:33
→ s93015a :的能量來源，所以北方乾冷空氣不算阻力 09/02 00:34
推 logdog :這傢伙的能量來源是否就是冷暖空氣的對峙? 09/02 02:10
推 lina7inverse:連 JTWC 老J請愛用: http://tinyurl.com/ProxyToJTWC 09/02 05:03
→ tytony :冷暖空氣對峙反而容易變成斜壓系統 可能有其他因素 09/02 07:02