看板 TY_Research 關於我們 聯絡資訊
http://ppt.cc/iMmK WTPN21 PGTW 281100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8N 140.6E TO 16.5N 132.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 280600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 139.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6N, 140.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 139.7E APPROXIMATELY 305NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS STARTED TO CONSOLIDATE ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO REMAIN FRAGMENTED. A 280831Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVED DIFFLUENT WESTERLY AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (GREATER THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 TO HOURS AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY WEST AND CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 291100Z.// NNNN -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 59.115.130.253
WuCH1022 :終於...阿鶴 10/28 23:22
kit279 :阿~~~~~~~~斯~~~~~~ 10/29 08:25
keroromoa :老J第一報類似百合路徑,登菲前顛峰65kts,南海70kts 10/29 10:37
evilcherry :29W 10/29 12:52
happyreach :今天的發展似乎很有困境 10/29 22:23