[情報] 98W 99W TCFA

[keroromoa (傻傻)]

98W
WTPN22 PGTW 030530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.8N 133.7E TO 9.0N 128.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 030430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.1N 133.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N
134.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 133.1E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A SLIGHTLY DEEPENED AND MORE ORGANIZED FORMATIVE
BAND ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR
(VWS) AND GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN
THE AREA ARE PERENNIALLY WARM (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
040530Z.
//
NNNN



99W
WTPN23 PGTW 030530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.1N 159.0E TO 7.3N 152.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 030430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.1N 158.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0N
159.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 158.6E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING FORMATIVE BANDS. A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS
INDICATED 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC AND
WEAKER WINDS NEAR THE CORE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG
EQUATORWARD CHANNEL. SSTS IN THE AREA ARE PERENNIALLY WARM (28 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
040430Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 133.1E
//
NNNN


有沒有NRL一修好後老J就變得比小J還積極的八卦？

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 1.171.207.77
推 skn60694    :開心 <3
推 evilcherry  :崩潰了 一下子全升TD
推 kit279      :兩個是日本貨還是海南貨呢
推 evilcherry  :前面的應該會和Krosa差不多 後面的太遠了...
老J第1報：
30W平西王一隻，穿過菲律賓中南部群島後於越南胡志明市附近登陸，顛峰70kts
31W平西王一隻，路徑和強度都有寶發再現的感覺...（120小時後120kts，顛峰可能更強）

推 kit279      :寶發的話，菲菲要哭哭惹
推 logdog      :老J第一報就120 代表這隻有挑戰利奇馬的味道
推 DanasYuri   :路徑像寶發 榴槤. 甚至是更強的安琪拉..
推 Eeli2008    :科羅莎要原地解散了嗎...
推 logdog      :似乎是
對岸論壇在比較三巴和利奇馬，對數狗大和丹娜絲大覺得哪隻比較強？
另外利奇馬這強度你們覺得在21世紀C5能排到前幾？小J給到新世紀前3會高估嗎？

→ evilcherry  :卡了這麼久鞍，甚麼暖水濕空氣都沒了...
裸奔中，不過底層看起來還是不錯，可能有機會撐到登陸

推 logdog      :三巴個人還是覺得完美 利奇馬還是輸 至於丹納斯 呵呵
丹娜絲是指上面的DanasYuri大大XD
→ logdog      :我覺得仍有問題 利奇馬前面還有更猛的]
→ logdog      :梅姬 妮坦 西馬龍 三巴 都該在她前面
看來對數狗大很看重眼溫XD
※ 編輯: keroromoa       來自: 203.79.155.243       (11/04 14:24)