[情報] JTWC 18Z預測黃蜂顛峰將追平Tip！

作者keroromoa (皮丘使用飛天！)

看板TY_Research

標題[情報] JTWC 18Z預測黃蜂顛峰將追平Tip！

時間Wed Oct 8 04:27:53 2014

老J的報文很長，所以我把它獨立成一篇，不好意思~ 覺得麻煩可以只看上色的部分和後面的註解就好XD WTPN31 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 17.6N 133.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 133.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 18.1N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 18.8N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 165 KT, GUSTS 200 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 19.6N 130.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 20.8N 130.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 23.4N 130.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 26.4N 130.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 29.4N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 132.9E. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 612 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.// NNNN 老J罕見地沒有從135kts調升到140kts，而是直接跳升到155kts！並預測顛峰強度會到165kts，追平Tip！老J理智斷線啦！　　　　　　　老J理智斷線啦！　　　　　　　　　　　　　　老J理智斷線啦！ --

推 DanasYuri :海燕CDO不小.對流極強.水氣紅一圈.梅姬無法比...11/08 00:04

→ DanasYuri :保守一點持平. 但整個型態包含CDO.海燕是頂級的那種11/08 00:05

推 Lamuneforty :燕窩11/08 00:40

推 killseven : 非常好11/08 00:41

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→ rainstill : 目前黃蜂的對流似乎有略微減弱的樣子? 10/08 05:41

推 jelly777 : 又要見證歷史了……水 10/08 06:49

推 ben108472 : 早上了雲頂溫度不可能不升高下午是最高的時段 10/08 06:50

→ rainstill : 先別提海燕幹掉MEGI之後再來說吧XD 10/08 06:51

→ tytony : 除非有飛機穿越實測不然要破海燕機率很低 10/08 07:39

推 forestcatcat: 應該很多人醒來後會覺得自己看錯雲圖= = 10/08 07:58

推 jasonccr : 要看黃蜂的毅力了~~~不過進入白天了.... 10/08 08:07

推 WYS127 : \西太逆轉勝/ 10/08 08:25

推 killseven : 西太要贏很容易阿常常風王都是在西太所以不意外 10/08 08:27

推 acidrain : 燕王：嗯？有挑戰者？ 10/08 09:29

推 greenYoshi : 最近的颱風素質都很恐怖，去年有媲美上古神獸的海燕 10/08 19:14