Re: [颱風] JTWC 00Z預測哈格比顛峰將追平Haiyan！

作者DanasYuri (星夕)

標題Re: [颱風] JTWC 00Z預測哈格比顛峰將追平Haiyan！

時間Sat Dec 6 00:57:29 2014

※ 引述《keroromoa (皮丘使用飛天！)》之銘言： : 今天是南瑪都登陸枋寮十週年， : 十年前的南瑪都顛峰也達到STY， : 十年後的12月，哈格比不僅成為STY， : JTWC再度給出理智斷線的預測啦！ : WTPN31 PGTW 040300 : MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// : SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// : RMKS/ : 1. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 013 : 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC : MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE : WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY : --- : WARNING POSITION: : 040000Z --- NEAR 9.8N 133.9E : MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS : POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM : POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE : PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: : 　 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT : WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY : RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT : 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT : 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT : 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT : RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT : 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT : 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT : 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT : RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT : 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT : 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT : 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT : REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 133.9E : --- : FORECASTS: : 12 HRS, VALID AT: : 041200Z --- 11.0N 131.6E : MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT : WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY : RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT : 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT : 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT : 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT : RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT : 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT : 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT : 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT : RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT : 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT : 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT : 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT : VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS : --- : 24 HRS, VALID AT: : 050000Z --- 11.5N 130.0E : MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 170 KT, GUSTS 205 KT : WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY : RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT : 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT : 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT : 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT : RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT : 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT : 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT : 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT : RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT : 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT : 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT : 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT : VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS : --- : 36 HRS, VALID AT: : 051200Z --- 11.7N 128.6E : MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 170 KT, GUSTS 205 KT : WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY : RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT : 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT : 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT : 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT : RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT : 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT : 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT : 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT : RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT : 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT : 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT : 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT : VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS : --- : EXTENDED OUTLOOK: : 48 HRS, VALID AT: : 060000Z --- 11.8N 127.6E : MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 170 KT, GUSTS 205 KT : WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY : RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT : 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT : 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT : 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT : RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT : 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT : 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT : 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT : RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT : 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT : 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT : 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT : VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS : --- : 72 HRS, VALID AT: : 070000Z --- 12.7N 126.1E : MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 165 KT, GUSTS 200 KT : WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY : RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT : 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT : 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT : 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT : RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT : 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT : 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT : 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT : RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT : 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT : 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT : 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT : VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS : --- : LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: : --- : 96 HRS, VALID AT: : 080000Z --- 14.1N 124.6E : MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT : WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY : VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS : --- : 120 HRS, VALID AT: : 090000Z --- 14.7N 122.8E : MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT : WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY : --- : REMARKS: : 040300Z POSITION NEAR 10.1N 133.3E. : SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM NORTH : OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE : PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 50 : FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.// : NNNN : 哈格比目前正快速清空中，對流-84.1度已經是海燕等級！ : 老J這次的預測可能不會放羊。 : 如果清空至和黃蜂一樣的眼溫， : 就不是成為今年風王這麼簡單了， : 難道會這麼快就出現跟燕王平起平坐的颱風嗎？ : 而且老J竟然預測顛峰會持續36小時... : http://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/?name=HAGUPIT : 另外哈格比目前路徑仍有變數 : 老J認為會直撲馬尼拉 : NMC認為會重覆去年海燕路徑 : 其他三家則是比NMC偏南，不過這種路徑恐怕是同時影響海燕跟寶發的災區， : 不論如何，菲菲這次都要提高警覺啊... 昨天我在颱風吧文章,曾拿出海燕和哈格比在東經133度的情況東經133度的時候海燕 CMG環-80.1 WMG暖心+13.3 ADT8.1.4 - CI 7.6 T 7.6 7.6 7.6 http://i.imgur.com/PMri9yl.gif 哈格比 CDG環-81.2 WMG暖心+17.6 ADT8.1.4 - CI 7.7 T 7.7 7.7 7.7 http://i.imgur.com/M8e0Iip.gif 可見哈格比的霸道. ("黑"格比) 海燕很早就開眼了.經過不少置換.直到當時這段時間是過了帛琉後. cdo開始修好的.風眼轉大對流正好要加強而哈格比風眼很晚開啟.但是和鸚鵡相似,開啟小風眼後猛爆增強的類型. 這和海燕黃蜂有點不同的地方. 當時有很完善的cdo 同心圓出現..小風眼..完全複製金娜薇的同心圓. 可惜哈格比水汽正好藍眼時.cdo已開始變形.. 而海燕則是越來越強雖然哈格比置換速度一絕.今日重新加強..但是底層右側薄弱..至今風眼賭塞..可能再上望c5 就難了這點可看出,環境也有差異. 一個12月一個11月但哈格比已經不容易了至少RSMC承認他是1971年以來12月風王. 另外海燕當時的緯度也比哈格比低. 不過我覺得.要說今年風王 .. 三者都有特色但是黃蜂外型是最適合當風王的. 比起1997年..更適合選出 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 220.129.101.159 ※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1417798652.A.E1D.html

推 logdog : 回到K大講的那一點如果沒有特別突出的指標我票還 12/06 10:21

→ logdog : 是會投給黃蜂那+26度的眼溫和風場實在是太變態了 12/06 10:22

→ logdog : 但是黃蜂之後的兩個白環+藍眼還是無法不正視... 12/06 10:22

推 WuCH1022 : 推:aa1477888:海燕厲害的地方就是幾乎補足了這些缺 12/06 10:31

→ WuCH1022 : 點 12/06 10:32

推 logdog : 海燕是神明啊颱風中的神明 (已跪 12/06 11:49

推 liukovsky : 海燕登陸的那個城市有無實測風速紀錄?或是從影片中 12/06 12:02

→ liukovsky : 的風雨,各位大大可估出其平風速嗎? 12/06 12:02

→ DanasYuri : 有個影片距離登陸點有40公里遠. 但威力印象很深 12/06 12:17

→ DanasYuri : 估計風速約高鐵 12/06 12:17

→ DanasYuri : 哈格比風眼晚開但開眼後猛爆. 但太快受影響減弱 12/06 12:19

→ DanasYuri : 環境和海燕無法比..哈格比的OHC也是最差的. 12/06 12:21

→ DanasYuri : 梅姬黃蜂海燕鸚鵡那時的OHC條件都很好 12/06 12:21

→ DanasYuri : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxw9_UmmVxM 海燕 12/06 12:24

推 liukovsky : 感謝D大提供的影片原來平均風力十六級吹起來是這種 12/06 23:19

→ liukovsky : 種模樣啊既恐佈又精采 12/06 23:20