[外電] 猶他下一季有本事拿50勝嗎?

[amox (Forever Not Yours)]

在看到這篇文章前, 我從未想過50勝的可能。這文中所提到的爵士
球迷觀點, 也比我在jazzfanz討論區所看到的樂觀。許多東西可能
會令板友不太舒服, 先姑且不論其觀點論述有無可議之處, 我翻譯
此文的原因是: 它讓我聯想到Frank Hughes。

==================

Utah Capable of Winning 50 Next Season?
By Travis Heath
for HOOPSWORLD.com
Jul 29, 2006, 10:30

While in Vegas, a fan approached me with his prediction for the Utah Jazz
next season. He said the team would win 50 games without a problem and in
doing so would win the Northwest Division. My first thought was I needed to
get some of the stuff this guy was smoking because it must be top shelf.
在Vegas的時候, 一個球迷和我聊到他對猶他爵士下個球季的預測。
他說這個球隊將會贏得50勝, 並拿到西北組的冠軍。我心中第一個
念頭是想確認這位老兄沒抽大麻, 因為這是很個困難的目標。

Amazingly, since that time I have had a number of other Jazz fans e-mail me
indicating they think the Jazz are legitimate contenders in the Northwest
Division. This caused me to pause and think long and hard about Utah's chances.
令人意外地, 我收到好幾封爵士球迷的e-mail, 認為爵士的確有
機會挑戰西北組王座。這讓我開始深入思考猶他所擁有的機會。

Were these nothing more than over excited Jazz fans suffering from a terminal
diagnosis of homerism or did their arguments actually have some merit?

In reality, probably a little bit of both.
這些過於興奮的爵士球迷們是否因為地緣因素而做出如此結論呢?
而他們的論點是不是太樂觀了呢?

老實說, 也許兩者皆是。

That said, the Jazz will not win 50 games next season as currently constituted.
In fact, a lot of things will have to go right for the Jazz to win 45 ballgames
in 2006-07.
也就是說, 爵士現有的陣容在下一季是拿不到50勝的。
事實上, 爵士在2006-07球季得確保許多事情順利才能拿到45勝。

Now, let's breakdown the reasons why some folks in Utah believe that the Jazz
will win 50 games next year and the reasons why your friendly neighborhood
columnist believes them to be off base.
現在讓我們來分析一些猶他鄉親認為爵士明年能拿50勝的理由,
並讓你們的好鄰居來告訴你們為何這是不切實際的。

Reason #1: Ronnie Brewer 
理由之一 : 釀酒人
Look, Brewer has a chance to be a really nice player in the future for the
Jazz. He can score the basketball and play three positions. He also showed
very well at the Rocky Mountain Revue. However, as my friend and colleague
Jason Fleming pointed out in a piece a couple of weeks back, summer league
play can be deceiving. Remember, the immortal Nikoloz Tskitishvilli used to
routinely drop 20-point games on cats in summer league play. Summer league
play is what it is, and it sure as heck isn't the regular season. That's not
to say that Brewer won't have some nice games, but you have to remember that
he's still a rookie.
注意, Brewer有機會在爵士的未來成為一個很好的球員。他能得分,能
勝任三個位置。他在RMR的表現也很突出。但是, 就如我的好友兼工作
伙伴Jason Fleming在前幾個星期前指出的, 夏季聯盟的比賽會騙人。
記住, 著名的Nikoloz Tskitishvilli曾在夏季聯盟的比賽中動不動就
拿下20分。(譯按: 不懂句中on cats的意思, 而Skita在他四年的夏季
聯盟比賽中, 也只有過一場超過20分的比賽, 那場比賽讓他得到一份來
自灰狼的合約) 夏季聯盟的比賽就是如此, 這肯定不能拿來和例行賽比
較。這並不是說Brewer不能打出一些出色的比賽, 但你得記住他不過是
個菜鳥。

The bottom-line is if fans in Utah are expecting Brewer to be the single most
important factor in getting the Jazz to the 50 win plateau next season, they
are sorely mistaken. The kid will be a good player in the league, but he's
not good for a nine-win improvement by himself this upcoming season.
如果猶他球迷寄望Brewer成為爵士下季達到50勝水準的最重要因子, 那
他們錯得離譜。這孩子會成為聯盟中的好球員, 但他還沒好到能以一己
之力讓球隊多贏九場球。

Reason #2: Health 
理由之二 : 健康
Over half of the teams in the NBA each season can claim that injuries were
the reason why the team was not as successful as they could have been. That's
not to say that injuries don't actually affect the number of wins a team does
or does not accumulate, it's just that every single team in the Association
would be a better team if they lost none of their players to injury.
聯盟中有超過半數的球隊可以對外聲稱他們是因為傷病而未能達到自己
該有的水準。這不是要說傷病因素不影響到球隊能獲得的勝場數, 只不
過每一支球隊能保持全員健康的話, 都會變得得更強。

So for every Jazz fan who says that as long as Andrei Kirilenko, Carlos Boozer,
and company stay healthy the club can win 50 games, there's a Nuggets fan
somewhere saying the same about Nene, Marcus Camby, and Kenyon Martin, and
a Suns fan saying the same about Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, and the list
goes on and on.
所以當爵士球迷說Andrei Kirilenko、Carlos Boozer和其他球員能
保持健康的話, 他們能贏得50勝; 那任一個金塊球迷可以說如果Nene、
Marcus Camby、和Keyon Martin保持健康的話, 而太陽球迷也可以把
這句話套用在Amare Stoudemire、Shawn Marion等人身上, 然後其他
隊伍也是。

The point is that an argument based on a team being nine wins better simply
because of not suffering the same injuries they suffered last season is an
inherently flawed argument in most cases.
重點是, 如果一個球隊能進步九勝取決於他們不會受前一個球季同樣
的傷病問題困擾, 在多數情況下, 這個論點本身就是有瑕疵的。

Remember, the Miami Heat were without some guy named Shaquille O'Neal for 23
games last year and they still did alright. The same is true with most every
team that finished better than the Jazz last season. It's just that you don't
hear the teams who made it deep into the NBA playoffs last season crying
about injuries.
記著, 邁阿密熱火去年有個叫做Shaquille O'Neal的家伙缺賽了23場,
卻仍然打得不錯。幾乎每個戰績比爵士好的球隊都能套用這個規則。
只是你不會聽到這些打進季後賽的球隊抱怨隊中受傷的問題。

Good teams, the one's truly capable of winning 50 games, are built to
withstand injury. Period.
好的球隊, 那些真正有本事贏得50勝的隊伍, 是建立在能禁得起傷痛
考驗之上的, 就這樣。

Reason #3: The Mirage That is Rafael Araujo 
理由之三 : Rafael Araujo只是妄想
The guy throws down Marvin Williams while wearing a practice jersey in a summer
league game and everyone in Utah thinks he's the "tough guy" the Jazz need
inside. That might be a nice fantasy to hold onto during the summer months,
but it will be put to rest as soon as the real games get underway in November.
這個在夏季聯盟比賽中將Marvin Williams摔出去的家伙, 讓每個猶他
居民認為他就是爵士內線所需要的"悍將"。 這也許是漫長夏季中的美
好幻想, 但只要等到11月真正的比賽開打, 這個夢就會被丟到一旁。

Instead of trying to wrestle with players half his size, Araujo should
concentrate on developing some semblance of a low-post game. The dude is
nothing short of clueless when he gets the ball, and he's slow defensively.
別再把時間浪費在那些只有他一半體型的球員身上, Araujo應該專心在
加強一些低位的攻擊手段。這位仁兄在拿到球的時候不知所措, 而他的
防守腳步也很慢。

Folks, this is frickin' Rafael Araujo we're talking about. If anyone honestly
believes that he's even a small part of the reason that why this Jazz team
has a chance to win 50 games next season, they've gone completely batty.
嘿, 我們在談論的是那個糟糕的Rafael Araujo耶。如果任何人真的相信
他是爵士要奪得50勝的那一小部份拼圖, 他們一定是徹底地瘋了。

Reason #4: Andrei Kirilenko Finally Coming Around Offensively
理由之四 : AK終於變得有進攻威脅性了
It's been said in this space before, and here it comes again: Kirilenko will
never be a dominant offensive player. That doesn't take away from his amazing
defensive abilities, the same abilities which make him one of the most unique
players in the NBA today.
以前我就在這說過了, 現在再重复一次: Kirilenko永遠不可能成為一個
主宰進攻的球員。我並沒有忽視他驚人的防守能力, 這項能力使他成為現
今NBA中最獨一無二的球員。

The problem is that many Jazz fans seem to hold out hope each offseason that
Kirilenko will come back the following October with a magically reinvented
offensive game. This line of thinking is all well and good, that is if you
enjoy ignoring the facts.
問題在於許多爵士球迷似乎抱持著希望, Kirilenko會在10月歸隊時帶著
神奇的進攻技巧回來。這個思路不錯, 如果你喜歡忽略事實的話。

Look, the guy's scoring average has actually dropped each of the last two
campaigns, and it's not like he's some 20-year-old kid whose offensive game
hasn't yet had a chance to completely evolve. Kirilenko's a veteran
25-year-old player who has played big minutes in the NBA for five seasons now.
History tells us that if he hasn't had a breakout offensive season yet, it
probably isn't all of a sudden going to happen in year six, seven, or eight
for Kirilenko.
注意, 這個人的平均得分已經連續兩年都向下掉, 而他也不是那些能在
進攻方面有許多空間成長的20歲年輕人。Kirilenko已經是25歲的老鳥,
連續五年都擁有不少的上場時間。歷史告訴我們, 如果他在進攻上還沒
有一個爆發性的突破, 那在Kirilenko的第六..第七或第八年也大概不
會發生了。
(譯按: 作者不知道爵士在兩年前簽來兩個進攻球員嗎..)

Reason #5: Utah Will Win 50 Games Because They Play in a Bad Division 
理由之五 : 因為猶他在一個較差的分組, 所以他們能拿50勝
The Northwest division was not great last season, that much is true. However,
the division has improved already this summer and could get better before the
season tips off. Jazz fans have to remember that the team's moves this summer
didn't take place in vacuum. The rest of the division has been getting better
this summer, too.
西北組在上個球季並不是很好, 這是事實。無論如何, 這個分組在夏天
已經有所進步, 而且在開季前都還有可能變得更好。爵士球迷們得記住,
並不是只有爵士自己在做交易。這個分組的其他球隊也都在夏天有所斬獲。

Other teams in the division also have more dominant players like Kevin Garnett
in Minnesota and the ever-improving Carmelo Anthony in Denver who an NBA coach
told me last week has been a "top-five player" during Team USA practices this
month in Vegas. Division's change from year-to-year and you can bet that the
Northwest will be much better in 2006-07. Even a team like Portland with all
of the young talent they added this offseason will be formidable.
分組中其他球隊擁有更多具主宰力的球員, 像是明尼蘇達的Kevin Garnett,
或是丹佛的Carmelo Anthony也還一直在進步, 上周有位NBA教練告訴我, 在
Vegas的美國隊訓練中, 他是前五名的球員。分組的實力每年都在改變, 而
你可以確信西北組在2006-07球季將會更好。甚至像波特蘭今年添加了一堆
潛力新秀, 他們也將難以對付。

The moral of the story is that teams who win 50 games do so because they are
good enough to win 50 and not because of the quality of the competition
around them. The Jazz just aren't there yet, and fans in Utah must on some
level know this since pointing to the competition in the Northwest Division
is one of the primary reasons that folks believe Utah can win 50 next year.
這故事給我們的啟示就是, 球隊能贏50勝是因為他們有那樣的實力, 而不是
因為他們所在的競爭環境。爵士尚未好到那個地步, 而猶他當地的球迷一定
多少知道這點, 所以才會拿西北組的強弱來做為爵士明年能否拿50勝的主要
理由。


Conclusion 
結論
The Jazz are not a bad basketball team. Deron Williams and Brewer will both
continue to get better this year and in the future. Mehmet Okur, Kirilenko,
and Boozer are all nice players who can give opposing teams headaches. Derek
Fisher will be a nice veteran addition on the court and in the locker room.
爵士不是一支很差的隊伍。Deron Williams和Brewer在未來將會繼續成長。
Mehmet Okur、Kirilenko和Boozer都是能讓對手頭痛的優秀球員。老將
Derek Fisher的加入會在場上及休息室中都帶來幫助。

This Jazz team as currently constituted has a chance to win more games than
they lose next year, but 50 wins is a very optimistic prediction -- and it
ain't going to happen. Despite all of the talent on the team, the Jazz lack a
legitimate superstar caliber scorer and NBA teams in that kind of predicament
almost always get exposed.
這支爵士隊目前的陣容的確有機會在明年讓他們的勝場數超過敗場數,
但50勝是一個非常樂觀的預測 - 而它也不會成真。即使隊上聚集許多
天份, 但爵士缺乏一個巨星等級的得分手, 像他們這樣的NBA球隊幾乎
總是被擊敗。

Who in Utah has proven they want the ball and can deliver in crunch time?
The answer is no one, and as much affinity as your friendly neighborhood
columnist has for Derek Fisher, when he's the guy on your team who has the
best track record in the clutch . . . well, that's bad news boys and girls.
有哪一個猶他球員證明自己在關鍵時刻能主動挺身而出? 答案是沒有。
以你們友善的鄰居專欄作家對Derek Fisher的認識, 當他成為你們隊上
擁有最多關鍵記錄的球員, 哇, 先生小姐們, 那可是個壞消息。

Instead of hoping for 50 wins next year in Utah, just hope that your team
qualifies for the postseason because it is far from a guarantee.
別期待猶他明年能拿到50勝了, 去希望你們的球隊能取得季後賽資格吧,
因為那離你們還有一段距離。


Prediction: 
預測: 
43-39 with a chance of grabbing the eight seed depending on how the records
across the Western Conference shake out.

Book it.

43至39勝之間, 有機會搶到第八種子, 不過得看西區其他隊伍的表現而定。

記下來吧。


http://www.jazzfanz.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=17004
http://www.hoopsworld.com/member/article_10624.shtml

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 59.41.45.25
推 gratitude:看到標題直接按End，因為我認為只有49勝，第三種子。
推 amox:丹佛作家寫爵士分析, that's the point.
推 gratitude:果然是逕渭分明......但是抽大麻的會不會是波特蘭來的?
推 jasonshu:推破特蘭來的 XDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD
→ jasonshu:Frank Hughes who? and time will prove!
推 CarlosBoozer:缺乏巨星等級的得分手? 缺乏巨星等級的得分手!
推 MehmetOkur:樓上的是夢幻隊得分手。
推 jasonshu:=================以上皆非巨星等級的得分手名單========
推 JarronCollin:嘿嘿
→ amox:=========Jarron在玩nbalive時都調成superstar =============
推 Actus:我同意Derek Fisher壞消息那段
推 CarlosBoozer:只要LIVE幫我,我也可以當superstar
推 monmo:阿摸Araujo那段把"摔"字也翻出來意思應該會比較清楚:)
推 newlly:cowbeo
推 ak:他不知道夏天AK除了陪網友聊天就是去練投籃了嗎﹖
推 amonway:有看有推
推 aly:外電翻譯還是要先推的，內容的話樓上的都講完了。
推 sam369:
推 Kirilenko:
推 sam369:
推 species:說實話,我不覺得從馬史以來爵士有巨星等級的得分手,Malone
→ species:是硬漢,但總不覺得他是巨星等級的"得分手"
推 ak:Kirilenko是誰的馬甲﹖
推 sam369:
推 gratitude:馬甲一詞在中國大陸也指網上論壇上某人使用的非主賬號用
→ gratitude:戶，即臺灣網路上的免洗ID......
→ gratitude:起源：一隻老虎追一條蛇，蛇鑽到了洞里，不久出來了一隻
→ gratitude:烏龜，老虎抓住烏龜說：別以為你穿上馬甲我就不認識你了
推 joyboytoy:歪果人叫阿甲
→ sam369:
推 ak:哇﹐這都知道啊﹐Kirilenko是誰的
→ sam369:
→ joyboytoy:原來g老說的是真的 o_O?
推 sam369: