推 HornyJazz:PREDICTION: This guy gets new glasses tomorrow. 05/21 00:40
Experience should carry Spurs to finals
Charley Rosen / Special to FOXSports.com
Posted: 1 hour ago
One of the more tasty ingredients in the Western Conference finals is the
abundance of cross-matches.
What does that mean? It's a situation where two opposing players at the same
position will not be guarding each other at both ends of the court. Each
team's exploitation of these mix-and-match confrontations could very well
determine which of them survives into the championship series.
For starters, the center slot is always of supreme importance.
Ideally, the Spurs want Fabricio Oberto to defend Carlos Boozer in the low
post as much as possible, hopefully to bang around sufficiently to sap
Boozer's strength (highly unlikely) and/or to induce an offensive foul or two
(conceivable). But this matchup would necessarily mean that Tim Duncan would
have to guard Mehmet Okur. Since Okur is essentially an outside shooter,
Duncan would then be too far removed from the paint to be able to anchor San
Antonio's superb interior defense. But having TD defend Boozer runs the risk
of the Big Fundamental getting into big foul trouble.
This is a risk that the Spurs will have to take.
With Duncan responsible for Boozer (and overplaying his right shoulder to
take away his left hand), Obert might begin each game on the bench. That
would leave Francisco Elson free to use his superior speed and length to
haunt Okur's perimeter propensities. If Okur goes inside and tries to
overpower Elson, his penchant for turnovers will benefit the Spurs ─
especially if he's double-teamed. Look for Robert Horry to have a go in
guarding both Boozer and Okur.
To give Duncan a break, count on both Elson and Horry to front Boozer, a
tactic that severely reduced Boozer's effectiveness in large portions of the
Utah-Golden State series. The bad news here is that fronting Boozer turns him
loose to ravage the offensive boards.
On the flip side of the center-matchups, Okur is Utah's best post-up
defender. But he lacks the lateral foot-speed to successfully contain
Duncan's multiple moves from either box. Boozer will eventually be forced to
guard Duncan, and certainly has the strength to move TD off his favorite
spots. Still, Boozer is relatively short-armed and shuffle-footed and will
be unable to cope with Duncan in face-up situations.
Paul Milsap will be given a chance to bang with Duncan, but the rookie won't
be able to avoid foul trouble.
Sooner or later, the Jazz will have to double Duncan. But if TD can avoid
crippling foul trouble, he won't require much help in turning Boozer into a
fadeaway jump shooter.
The point guard position presents another intriguing cross-match. While Deron
Williams has the strength and the quickness to battle Tony Parker, he's also
foul-prone. That's why Derek Fisher will devote most of his attention to
trying to keep Parker out of the lane. Since Fisher is a be-ringed veteran,
the refs will give him more leeway than they will grant to Williams.
In any case, the only Jazz defender who could possibly contain Parker's
spinning penetrations is Andrei Kirilenko. This pairing, however, will only
succeed for short periods. Look for Utah to play some 1-2-2 matchup zone,
i.e., a hybrid defense that starts out in a zone-look but in certain
instances eventuates in man-to-man coverage.
At the other end, there's little doubt that Bruce Bowen will be sicced on
Williams. After six games of playing tag with Steve Nash, defending Williams
will be like a walk in the park for Bowen.
This Bowen-Williams cross-match might very well be the most significant
confrontation of the entire series. If Bowen's pestiferous defense can
frustrate Williams and force him into making ill-advised decisions with
the ball (likely), then the Jazz will be headless. Bowen, of course, will
be even more disrupting when guarding Fisher.
If Parker can easily out-quick Williams, the latter can just as easily
overpower the former. Coming off the bench, Jacque Vaughn can pressure
Williams' handle in the vicinity of the 3-point line but will be unable to
prevent him from venturing into the lane.
Playing Parker on Fisher will keep TP out of foul trouble as well as enable
the Spurs to limit Fisher's 3-point looks.
Elsewhere, the Manu Ginobili-Kirilenko face-off will be intriguing. Since the
Spurs don't depend on high screen-rolls as much as other teams do, Kirilenko
will frequently be left to deal with Ginobili on his own. And if Kirilenko's
rubber-armed defense can wrap up Ginobili's left-handed slants to the rim,
the Jazz will be singing happy tunes for the next two weeks.
The Spurs will encourage Kirilenko to unloose his erratic jumper, and will
focus instead on jamming up his weak-side cuts along the baseline.
Matt Harpring has little chance to stay in touch with Ginobili on defense,
but will try to post him up. When he does, the scrappy Harpring is advised to
takes pains to securely seal Ginobili and also to meet the incoming passes.
Otherwise, the nimble Ginobili is liable to deflect and steal enough entry
passes as to render Harpring's pivot-play useless.
The only player whom Gordan Giricek can stay close to on defense will be
Michael Finley. When working against either Giricek or Harpring, Finley's
step-back jumpers (going left) will still be available. Neither of the Spurs'
backup wingmen's inconsistent shooting will be more than an occasional
annoyance to the Spurs.
In the overall scheme of things, both of these teams are incredibly
disciplined, and both will force the other to play defense for close to
20 seconds on each possession. Look for over-the-top physical play and a
low-scoring series.
One of the difficulties of cross-matches is the confusion that results in
transition situations. The defenders have to seek out their rightful
assignments on the run, and might indeed be too far away to make contact.
So, whichever team can generate the most running opportunities will have a
huge advantage. And with easy buckets being hard to come by, the series will
come down to defense, turnovers, and rebounding.
SPEED: +++ edge for the Spurs.
POWER: ++ edge for the Jazz.
REBOUNDING: + edge for Utah.
PASSING: ++++ advantage for San Antonio.
PERIMETER SHOOTING: ++ advantage for SA.
INTERIOR SCORING: + edge for the Spurs.
DEFENSE: +++ in SA's favor, mainly because of their unparalleled ability to
jam up screen/rolls.
VERSATILITY: + in the Spurs' column.
TOUGHNESS: even.
BENCH STRENGTH: ++ edge for the Spurs only because of Ginobili.
COACHING: even.
X-FACTORS: For San Antonio, it's always Ginobili. If he's hitting his outside
shot, then his dribble-penetrations become more available. When he's good,
the Spurs are good. When he's great, the Spurs are unbeatable.
For Utah, it's Williams' ability to stay in the game, make his pull-up
springers, take care of the ball, and generally maintain his poise while
being held, bumped, kneed, stepped on, and ferociously harassed by Bowen.
PREDICTION: Because of the brief interval between the closing of the Suns'
series and the commencement of this one, the Spurs will be physically,
mentally, and emotionally fatigued. That's why the Jazz have a good shot at
winning Game 1.
Even so, at this level of competition any home-court edge is minimized.
Indeed, discounting the Jazz-Warriors series, the other conference semifinals
resulted in a 9-9 split in home-court games.
Expect the Spurs to prevail because of their collective experience, and the
ability of their slightly more cohesive defense to take full advantage of
Utah's shaky pass-work.
San Antonio in six.
http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/6829360
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