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Rookie Watch: Who could beat out Durant for ROY?
By David Thorpe
ESPN.com
Updated: October 16, 2007
Even casual NBA fans know that this year's NBA Rookie of the Year race appears
to be over before it starts, thanks to Greg Oden's injury coupled with Kevin
Durant's golden opportunity to play a lot in Seattle.
True, even as special as Durant is, he probably wouldn't see as many minutes
on an established team like Chicago or Detroit. But with the Sonics, Durant
will get all the playing time and shots he can handle.
Consequently, we have a nine-horse race to "place," plus a few genuine dark
horses for Durant's crown.
1. Kevin Durant, F, Seattle SuperSonics
When I first saw Durant play in November 2006, I immediately thought he looked
like a hybrid of Kevin Garnett and George Gervin. Now he has a college season
under his belt, and I still feel the same way.
He's a KG in that he plays with raw emotion and passion, a true throwback
guy who just lives to compete and crush people, which explains his excellent
rebounding and shot-blocking numbers. But he's capable of scoring in such
creative ways and able to string together long and mega-productive streaks in
one game (think LeBron and D-Wade in recent NBA playoff games) and in a series
of games (like the Iceman).
We still don't know what position he'll inhabit for the better part of a game;
the Sonics are trying him at the 2 guard, but he's a more natural forward.
We do know he'll be on the court a lot. He is a likely 20 points-per-game
scorer and a runaway fave to win the ROY race.
2. Luis Scola, F, Houston Rockets
Scola might be the most fortunate rookie in terms of how his talents fit with
his team's style of play. Argentinean players typically are masters at moving
without the ball, using excellent timing, space and pace to create easy
baskets with minimal dribbling. Coach Rick Adelman's offense encourages
players to do exactly that, and Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady are good passers.
Scola might have been Europe's best player last season, he's 27 years old, and
he is highly motivated to play well after being frustrated by San Antonio's
reluctance to bring him over.
As a probable starting power forward for a team poised for a title run, he
has the best chance of beating Durant at the wire, assuming the voters will
treat him as a rookie.
3. Juan Carlos Navarro, G, Memphis Grizzlies
NBA coaches are typically loathe to give rookies big minutes, but new coach
Marc Iavaroni is likely to buck that tendency with Navarro, a 27-year-old
sharpshooter who was the MVP of the second-best professional league in the
world. Navarro plays a lot like J.J. Redick did in college -- he feels he can
make any jumper.
Like most of the rookies on this list below him, he does have some good
competition for playing time, namely another sharpshooter in Mike Miller
(who's a lot taller) and the surprising Tarence Kinsey. But Navarro, with
loads of Euroleague and international competition under his belt, projects
to be the first wing off the bench on a team that plays with some serious
pace, so his numbers should be solid.
4. Al Horford, F, Atlanta Hawks
On a different team, Horford easily cracks my top three, due to his NBA-ready
work ethic and talent. But the Hawks already have some high draft picks that
could see some time at the power forward spot (Marvin Williams, Shelden
Williams and perhaps Josh Smith) and a solid center in Zaza Pachulia.
Still, Horford comes in as a big man who can help the Hawks right now on both
sides of the ball. He developed a solid face-up game in college, along with
an excellent jump hook. And he's a surprisingly good passer from the box and
the high post. And he'll be a strong defender and rebounder right away.
5. Joakim Noah, F-C, Chicago Bulls
No college player last season was more hated by his opponent's fans, and
more beloved by his own teammates. Why? In part because he played so hard,
exhausting himself and totally investing his talents in the success of his
teammates and his team.
Noah was the lifeblood of one of the top teams in college hoops history, and
he has the exact mentality that coach Scott Skiles wants in his players.
Given that and his ability to run, pass and block shots, I would not be
surprised if Noah ultimately earned Chicago's starting power forward spot.
6. Al Thornton, F, Los Angeles Clippers
Thornton arrived at Florida State with the best "wheels" in college basketball,
but an iffy motor that seemed to cough and gasp often, and a rather immature
skill game. But he developed a relentless attacking style and a great midrange
game, and he enters the Clippers organization as an older rookie (turns 24 in
December) with tremendous confidence in his shot and the athleticism to make
plays on both ends of the floor.
He may struggle to get time early but should play much more as the season
unfolds (and unravels) for a likely lottery-bound team.
7. Rodney Stuckey, G, Detroit Pistons
Though he played at a little-known college (Eastern Washington) for only two
years, Stuckey's skill set is quite mature. He looked great in the Vegas Summer
League and appears capable of helping the Pistons as a true combo guard.
I'd have him higher on this list based on his talent, but the Pistons have
other, more experienced players ahead of him as they try to make a run back
to the Eastern Conference finals or beyond. Stuckey may get November minutes,
so he must play well to stick in the rotation.
8. Corey Brewer, F, Minnesota Timberwolves
Brewer is a lot like Thornton in that he plays incredibly hard and is an
elite athlete, but he has not yet developed a strong shooter's stroke or a
scorer's feel.
He makes this list as a projected starter (in the near future) who will fill
up a stat sheet. In addition, he makes a lot happen on defense and does the
little things that go beyond the box score.
With an improved jumper, Brewer could finish in the top three by year's end.
9. Mike Conley Jr. , G, Memphis Grizzlies
Despite his immense talents, Conley has a few things working against him in
this race.
One, he is playing the toughest position to play as a rookie: the point.
Two, second-year point guard Kyle Lowry is going to be a very good pro and
needs time to develop (either towards a better Grizzlies' future or as trade
bait). Additionally, Damon Stoudamire and Navarro, as noted above, will get
minutes for the Grizzlies.
Still, Conley's ultra-quickness, superior handle and his strong hoops IQ will
help him navigate the challenges of playing the lead guard in a fast-paced
system, and I see a solid first year for him.
10. Yi Jianlian, F, Milwaukee Bucks
Any number of other players could have made this list, but the final spot
goes to a player who will have a great opportunity (can you say "promise"?)
to play significant minutes all season.
Yi has great size and is a capable shooter, so if he gets 20-plus minutes a
night, he'll put up some decent numbers and perhaps rise up this list as the
season progresses.
But the pressure to perform well will be high, as the Bucks expect to be a
playoff team.
Rookies who could crack the top 10:
Marco Belinelli, G, Golden State Warriors: His experience and skill set
suggest he belongs on this list, but the plethora of options for Don Nelson
on the perimeter make it hard to project success in Year 1.
Javaris Crittenton, G, Los Angeles Lakers: Phil Jackson is trying to win now,
so letting the young, inconsistent Crittenton develop through his mistakes is
not likely, though the kid looks like a talent who will find a rotation spot
in time.
Morris Almond, F, Utah Jazz: He's a smart, tough, dead-eye shooter, but he's
playing behind Most Improved candidate Ronnie Brewer.
Kyrylo Fesenko, C, Utah Jazz: Seeing "Fes" is believing; he is huge and agile
with a disposition bordering on too nasty -- just the type of player Jerry
Sloan loves.
Jeff Green, F, Seattle SuperSonics: Green has a solid all-around game and
should see time at a few positions.
Glen Davis, F, Boston Celtics: He has the size and skill to be in the
rotation, but he must bring effort every day or coach Doc Rivers (and KG)
will sit him until he learns.
Others to watch: Philadelphia 76ers forwards Thaddeus Young and Jason Smith
and Atlanta Hawks guard Acie Law IV.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/columns/
story?columnist=thorpe_david&page=RookieWatch-071016
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