作者CarlosBoozer (給我大懶熊)
看板UTAH-JAZZ
標題Re: Hollinger's Team Forecast: Utah Jazz
時間Thu Oct 2 21:55:31 2008
※ 引述《CarlosBoozer (給我大懶熊)》之銘言：
長話短說版
: http://tinyurl.com/47rfhj 原文及其他各隊分析
: 2007-08 Recap
: Call it a case of foul play.
: Utah had the best point differential in the Western Conference last
: season and was lights-out in the second half of the season. Heading
: into the second round of the playoffs, they seemed to have a great
: shot at upsetting the top-seeded Lakers and making a run to the
: Finals.
爵士去年有最佳的勝分差，加上下半季吃錯藥的爆衝
看起來很有機會作翻湖人
: They might have pulled it off, too, if not for a pesky rule that
: permits a player to shoot free throws if the other team fouls him. In
: six games, L.A.'s Kobe Bryant took an unfathomable 96 free-throw
: attempts; he made 80 of them. That, in a nutshell, was the series.
: Utah scored more than enough points to win and did reasonably well in
: other respects on defense, but the Lakers' parade to the free-throw
: line killed any hope of an upset.
夢醒來只看到 某個人 這一系列罰了96球：他罰進80個。
即使說爵士拿了夠多分、防守也還可以。
: The free-throw frenzy wasn't isolated to those six games. Bryant
: didn't get 96 free throws because of some conspiracy to favor the
: Lakers or a nefarious plot by David Stern to keep small-market teams
: out of the Finals; it happened because Utah really, truly fouled him
: on nearly every play, just like they did to most of their opponents
: all season.
代誌不是這六場才發生的啦！因為爵士幾乎每波都真的犯規。
而且不管對手是誰，一整季都是這樣。
: ┌────────────────┬─┐
: │ HOLLINGER'S '07-08 STATS │Ｘ│ (註：Pythagorean畢氏定理
: ├────────────────┴─┤ 流行於棒球界的一種藉由得失分來
: │W-L: 54-28 (Pythagorean W-L: 62-20) │ 推測勝率的公式，因為式子很像畢
: │Offensive Efficiency: 110.8 (2nd) │ 氏定理故命名之。這裡用的是對NBA
: │Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (12th) │ 用的修正版)
: │Pace Factor: 95.6 (11th) │
: │Highest PER: Carlos Boozer (21.96) │ 2007-08 推測勝率:
: └──────────────────┘ http://tinyurl.com/3kjekk
: That tendency has become a hugely important story, because in 2007-08
: the Jazz were a championship-caliber team in virtually every other
: respect. The rampant fouling was really the only thing standing
: between them and a conference title at the very least.
從其他方面的表現來看，爵士是個奪冠勁旅，但罄竹難書的犯規成了鐵板。
: ┌───────────────────┐
: │Opponent FTA Per FGA: 2007-08's Worst │
: ├───────────────────┤
: │TEAM OPP. FTA/FGA │
: │Utah .393 ←┐ │
: │Indiana .358 ←┘哇! │
: │New Jersey .353 │
: │Minnesota .350 │
: │Boston .341 │
: │League average .306 │
: └───────────────────┘
上圖為對手的 罰球數/出手數 比例
: And I do mean RAMPANT fouling. Jerry Sloan's teams have posted
: ridiculously high foul numbers for most of the past two decades, and
: last season the Jazz redoubled their efforts. Utah led the NBA in
: both personal fouls and opponent free throw attempts, and did so by a
: staggering margin. Jazz opponents took .393 free-throw attempts per
: field-goal attempt last season (see chart); not only was that
: terrible, but they're actually getting worse: Relative to the league
: it was a .05 increase from their league-worst mark of a year earlier.
下屬倫囉！爵士對手的罰球/出手比例高達.393！而且還在升高…
比去年他們的聯盟最差紀錄又多了.05！
: And it was hugely costly. Utah gave up 410 more points on free throws
: than it would have by fouling at the league average rate, or exactly
: five points a game -- an amount large enough to swing about 13 games
: in a typical NBA season. Granted, opponents would have taken shots
: from the field on most of those possessions and probably hit a solid
: percentage (fouls tend to come when the defense is at a
: disadvantage); but even if they'd made 55 percent of them Utah would
: have saved itself two points a game.
換算起來，他們比聯盟平均多損失了410分。
雖然說犯規多半發生在防守不利時，但即使這些犯規換成55%的出手命中
他們每場平均還是損失了兩分！
: Those two points a game are worth between five and six wins for a
: typical NBA team, which for the Jazz last season was the difference
: between being the top seed in the West and having to play on the road
: every round.
一般來說，每場多兩分相當於多了五至六場勝利，
對爵士來說已經是第一種子和每輪宅不過別人的差別。
: More generally, the major hole they dig themselves into with the
: fouls makes it virtually impossible for the Jazz to have a
: championship-caliber defense; the only reason they were even in the
: hunt last season was because they led the league in offensive
: efficiency over the second half of the season. That's been the case
: for Utah ever since Sloan adopted the foul-on-every-play strategy
: near the end of the Stockton-Malone era (their Finals teams fouled at
: much less prodigious rates) -- the defense has been average at best
: every season, because you can't be at the top of the league giving
: away this many free points.
他們去年的競爭力來自於下半季聯盟最高的進攻效率。
後馬龍時代，史龍的「來一波犯一波」策略，
讓他們的防守頂多是一般水準（爭冠那兩年犯規比例低很多），
沒道理送了那麼多分還能拿第一的啦。
(1997-98 .357 ， 1996-97 .387 ，棍！哈林爵你騙我！）
: It's amazing that the personnel cost wasn't greater, too. Utah had a
: unique approach to avoid foul trouble to its best players -- the
: starters would play normal defense, and the bench guys would come in
: and just hammer people. While each of the starting five had
: reasonable foul rates, four Jazz reserves (Paul Millsap, Ronnie
: Price, C.J. Miles and Jason Hart) had among the highest foul rates at
: their positions, while Matt Harpring and Kyle Korver weren't far
: behind.
但是這竟不影響他們人員輪替，因為他們最好的球員都避免犯規。
他們先發看似一般，但替補上來就換了個球類運動。
米爺、真王牌、西街、東京熱都是犯規好手，小哈和帥哥也差不到哪兒去。
(換算成36分鐘的平均犯規：米爺5.7、真王牌5.1、西街5.1、東京熱4.5
小哈4.2、帥哥4.2、科科5.4、費神科也有9.8！
很好混的先發五人大約在1.9到3.7之間，而且正好是最少犯的前五名！)
: Korver, actually, is a great example of how this is clearly a
: tactical decision for the Jazz. He averaged 3.0 and 3.1 fouls per 36
: minutes the two previous seasons as a member of the Sixers; in Utah
: that ballooned to 4.2.
看帥哥換算成36分鐘的平均犯規：從板主脫團隊的3出頭，到現在爵士隊的4.2
: The fouling at least had one positive: often the Jazz wrested the
: ball away and the zebras let the contact go. Utah had the league's
: third-best opponent turnover rate, forcing miscues on 16.7 percent of
: opponent possessions. Combined with a strong performance on the
: defensive boards, the Jazz were the toughest team in the league to
: get a shot off against (see chart). Utah opponents fired only 94.1
: shots per 100 possessions, which was the main reason the Jazz were
: able to finish 12th in defensive efficiency instead of, say, 30th.
不過他們至少從中得到某個好處：製造對手失誤效率第3。
對手每100次進攻有16.7次失誤。
同時對手每100次進攻只有94.1次Shots也是聯盟最低。
Shots = FGA + (FTA * 0.44) 見下圖
再加上他們兇猛的防守籃板，
使得他們防守效率還能排在12名，而不是，呃，最後。
: ┌─────────────────────┐
: │Fewest Opp. Shots Per Possessions, 2007-08│
: ├─────────────────────┤
: │TEAM OPP. SHOTS* PER POSS. │
: │Utah 94.1 │
: │Boston 94.7 │
: │Philadelphia 95.2 │
: │Indiana 95.5 │
: │Chicago 95.7 │
: │League average 96.7 │
: ├─────────────────────┤
: │ * Shots = FGA + (FTA * 0.44) │
: └─────────────────────┘
: Speaking of Korver, it was Utah's midseason acquisition of him that
: helped turned their season around after a slow start. The Jazz
: started the year just 18-17, with Mehmet Okur in particular playing
: horribly, before snapping out of their early funk and rolling to the
: division title. That was around the same time Korver arrived -- after
: trading Gordan Giricek and a first-round pick to Philadelphia to get
: him, they went 38-16.
帥哥下凡和奧酷再臨，讓他們在18-17後，獲得38-16的佳績。
: His impact was more the threat of his shot than the reality of it --
: he only made 38.8 percent of his 3s for the Jazz. But on a team
: devoid of his shooting, his presence loosened up packed-in defenses
: -- especially when Okur was off the floor -- and allowed the other
: guys to do their thing.
他的威脅不只是38.8%的三分命中率，
而是弄鬆了對手臣又的內縮防守──在奧酷下場時尤為嚴重。
讓其他人得以發揮。
: As I mentioned, Utah ranked first in offensive efficiency for the
: second half of the season, and second for the year as a whole. They
: were second in the NBA in field-goal percentage, 2-point shooting
: percentage, true shooting percentage, and free-throw attempts per
: field-goal attempt (Jerry's teams get it as good as they give it when
: it comes to fouling). And although they still rarely took 3-pointers
: -- they had the fourth-lowest rate of 3-point shots -- Korver led
: them to a solid 37.2 percent.
老調重彈
爵士進攻效率下半季第一、全年第二。
出手命中率、兩分命中率、true shooting命中率、犯規/出手 比例都是第二名。
(跟他們的犯規一樣優秀)
聯盟第四低的三分出手比例
: Like I said, it was a championship-caliber offense. And hopefully
: they'll stop hacking long enough to prove it.
他們有冠軍水準的進攻，也希望他們能停止犯規來證明這一切。
: Biggest Strength: Interior scoring
最大優勢：內線得分
: This team is a layup machine, plain and simple. Williams is among the
: best point guards in basketball and always delivers it to the right
: spot, and starters Boozer, Kirilenko and Brewer are all outstanding
: finishers around the basket.
小胖到位的傳球，娘布、嫩姬、釀酒人都是籃框附近的得分好手。
: Additionally, Utah's offensive system is an unorthodox one by NBA
: standards, relying heavily on off-ball screening and cutting to get
: players open near the rim for short-range shots. It produces lots of
: layups and free throws, especially for players like Brewer and
: Harpring who excel at moving without the ball -- Williams will always
: find them, and Kirilenko is a good passer too.
爵士異於常人的進攻系統，強調無球掩護、穿梭，
來取得靠近籃框的得分機會。
釀酒人和小哈擅於無球跑動，
小胖傳好球、嫩姬險中球。
: Off the bench, the Jazz don't lose a lot in this regard. I mentioned
: Harpring above, but Millsap is also very effective around the basket,
: and Price, the backup at point guard, is a good finisher when he gets
: to the rim. With layups coming in waves, the Jazz don't need a whole
: lot of shooting to be among the league's elite offenses.
板凳還有一些同樣的好手如謎爺和真王牌。
葉啟田贊曰「上籃親像是海上的波浪」，一波未平一波又起。
高潮時連投籃都免了。
: Biggest Weakness: Interior defense
內線防守是最大的隱憂
: A big reason the Jazz sent opponents to the line so often was because
: the backline bailed them out so rarely. The combo of Okur and Boozer
: up front is brilliant offensively, but at the defensive end their
: weaknesses are more easily exposed. Okur is indifferent at best as a
: help defender and can't get off the floor to block shots at the rim,
: while Boozer's explosive leaping at the offensive end doesn't seem to
: translate into quality defense.
爵士對手能一再上罰球線，在於他們後方的防波堤形同虛設。
娘布和奧酷的防守弱點一展無遺。
奧酷補防蓋鍋時腳離不開地板。
娘布也只會在進攻時使勁跳。
: Off the bench it doesn't get too much better. Millsap is incredibly
: active but incredibly foul-prone, while Jarron Collins is a spent
: force whose offensive limitations prevent him from playing much.
: Harpring, when used at power forward, is of limited utility as a help
: defender and worthless as a shot-blocker.
板凳也不怎麼樣。
米爺防守主動犯規連連、
科科礙於進攻上不了場、
小哈能力有限鍋子不足。
: For those reasons, some wonder if the Jazz would be better served by
: trading one of their bigs for a wing player and moving Kirilenko to
: power forward. He was one of the league's leading shot-blockers from
: that position until two years ago, and might be a highly effective
: help-side flyswatter if returned to that role. With both frontcourt
: starters potentially entering free agency after the season, it's food
: for thought.
爵士可能更好：把他們一個大隻佬拿去換一個側翼球員，
然後把嫩姬放在大前鋒──他可能變成以前那個大掃把嫩姬
因為內線那兩隻，本季可能成為自由球員。
: Outlook
展望
: OK, they foul on every play. The good news is that if they just cut
: the foul rate a little bit, they can be good enough defensively to
: allow the offense to win games for them. And we have reason to
: suspect they can pull that feat off. Between Brewer's emergence as a
: stopper on the wings, a likely reduction in playing time for
: high-foul players like Harpring and Collins, and, more hopefully,
: some recognition by Sloan that this state of affairs must change, it
: seems plausible for the Jazz to improve here.
好消息是：他們只要少犯點規就能多贏些球，
釀酒人若成為側翼的大鎖，可能就減少像小哈和科科這些犯規大王的上場時間
當然，希望教皇史隆能意識到這點。
: If so, it's hard to argue with them in the West, because they've got
: everything else. The Jazz have go-to stars in both the backcourt and
: the frontcourt, have multiple scoring weapons surrounding them, and
: have arguably the deepest team in the conference. That last point is
: important, because this team is tailor-made for the regular-season
: grind --it can easily survive minor injuries and slumps and has no
: player who is too indispensable.
如果能的話，他們在西區的地位無須懷疑，因為他們萬事具備。
他們前場後場都有執球耳的明星、也不乏火力。
重要的是他們人員深度夠，可以說是為常規賽打造──什麼都有什麼都賣
不用擔心傷兵、也不用擔心有誰忽然人間蒸發
因為 沒有人真的不能少
: Additionally, they're still on the upswing. Williams is 24, Boozer is
: 26, and every key player except Harpring is in his 20s. Okur and
: Korver are both likely to have better years than a season ago, but
: nobody except perhaps Harpring projects to sharply regress.
年輕的肉體還有開發的空間。
除了小哈外，重要球員都還在2X
奧酷和帥哥將來都很有可能比去年更進步，
但是最後一句我看不懂。
: Add it all up and the Jazz, perhaps a bit surprisingly, came out with
: the top record in the West when I projected each team's outcome --
: beating out the Lakers by a single game. L.A. has the higher ceiling,
: and arguably so does Houston, but the Jazz have a far better
: likelihood of getting close to their roof.
這一切看起來是這麼的美好，驚人的是，
在我推算之下爵士以一場差擊敗湖人拿下西區龍頭，
也許湖人和火箭的天花板比較高，但是爵士更有可能到達他們頂樓。
: Taking things a step further, picking the Jazz to have home-court
: advantage by virtue of the best record in the West means one almost
: has to pick them to win the conference, too -- between the altitude
: and the crowd's impact on the zebras, this team is nigh unbeatable at
: home. It's a crowded race and they're one of three teams I see as
: having roughly equal odds of making it out, but if I have to pick a
: horse out West, this is the one.
再說一個好消息：以阿爵的宅力，若能拿下主場優勢，
幾乎等同於拿下分區。
再加上高海拔的地利、觀眾對裁判的影響，宅力近乎無敵。
在我看來，這三隊難分難解，要我來選就這隻了。
: Prediction: 58-24, 1st in Northwest Division, 1st in Western
: Conference
預測58-24，西區第一
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◆ From: 61.62.78.100
推 monmo:Truth命中率是指什麼? 費神科的犯規效率真是太銷魂了..... 10/02 22:20
推 hardaway:True shooting % = PTS / (2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)) 10/02 22:26
→ hardaway:意指一個球員進攻一次(包括出手和得到罰球機會)的得分率 10/02 22:28
推 hardaway:其實想請 Actus 大翻譯詳細版，記得去年他翻得超好的 XD 10/02 22:41
→ hardaway:哈哈，發現去年那篇摸摸就有在問 true shooting 是啥了 10/02 22:42
→ hardaway:結果隔了一年，又問一次 XD 10/02 22:43
→ CarlosBoozer:爵士無三阿，布瑟當前鋒 10/02 22:49
推 hardaway:你翻的也很有趣啦。 下屬倫囉！ 那句笑屬我了 XD 10/02 22:53
推 Kreen:～ 10/02 23:26
推 BlGP:結論我們防守太軟所以只能靠犯規 所以才會輸 10/02 23:35
→ CarlosBoozer:至於那個畢氏定理在棒球界蠻準的，所以還蠻有名 10/02 23:52
→ CarlosBoozer:不過用在NBA似乎沒那麼準啊 10/02 23:53
→ CarlosBoozer:請教授指導 ＠＠？ 10/02 23:53
推 DK47: 看到外電翻譯 就有淡淡的哀傷......我要大尾~~>"< 10/03 00:12
推 MOTONARI:有翻有推 好文我頂 10/03 00:25
推 fragkai:預測58-24，西區第一 (是爵士迷就該這樣翻!!) 10/03 00:37
推 Poleaxe:葉啟田贊曰「上籃親像是海上的波浪」 XDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD 10/03 00:48
推 Stockton:推小布點，您又回來啦^o^ 本尊為什麼不出現呢？ 10/03 01:20
推 Actus:一人翻一年，今年輪到摸摸 10/03 01:23
推 monmo:那誰跟我輪開季展望還有籃球邦爵士稿...=.= 10/03 01:44
推 Actus:還有小王子文，通通樓上硬食 10/03 01:46
推 gratitude:moamo可以和摸摸輪流 10/03 06:57
→ xjazz: 10/03 08:07
推 alyro:這篇堪稱是爵士隊批踢踢綽號辭典...翻譯辛苦了！ 10/03 08:46
推 Kreen:最近看鹿鼎記，發現江南有十八個摸摸，一呀摸、二呀摸～ 10/03 10:26
推 semicoma:哈哈哈那句: 除了哈普林可能大幅退化外 其他人都ok啦 10/04 10:01