Should have we know the Jazz would be better?

[MiltPalacio (Milt)]

Locked on Jazz - 
Should have we know the Jazz would be better?

December 2nd, 2010

   One statistic I like to look at, but I am never sure how much to value is an
individual players plus minus in contrast to what a team does when the player
is off the floor.  I have found over the year's what it really tells you is
where a team is lacking depth and who it can't afford to have off the floor.

   Today the Utah Jazz sit at 15-5 and I am wondering if I should have taken
plus minus a lot more seriously.   In the roster overhaul that started at the
trade deadline last year and continued into the off-season the Utah Jazz
removed two players that came out the worst numerical in regards to team
performance.

The last few years as a Utah Jazz fan we were confronted with a strange
development.   Their old school best statistical player was also one of their
new school statistically worst players.  Carlos Boozer put up 20 points and 10
rebounds while looking questionable in advanced stats.

Over the past 4 years, the Utah Jazz have been a better team when Carlos Boozer
was off the floor than on the floor.   I was amongst those who believed this
was largely based on who he was playing against and a compliment to Paul
Millsap who was the best back-up power forward in the NBA, therefore the Jazz
had an advantage when he was on the floor.

   Yet, 20 games into the new season without Carlos Boozer I am beginning to
wonder if +/- told us this was going to happen.

   Over the past 4 seasons the Jazz were better with Boozer off the floor the
last two years and very similar with him on the floor or off the floor.


┌─────┬───────┬───────┐
│   YEAR   │ON FLOOR +/-  │OFF FLOOR +/- │
├─────┼───────┼───────┤
│2006-2007 │ +3.1         │ +2.5         │
├─────┼───────┼───────┤
│2007-2008 │ +7.2         │ +6.1         │
├─────┼───────┼───────┤
│2008-2009 │ -1.5         │ +4.4         │
├─────┼───────┼───────┤
│2009-2010 │ +4.6         │ +6.8         │
└─────┴───────┴───────┘


   What was undeniable was how much better the Jazz were defensively with
Boozer on the bench rather than on the floor.   Today the Jazz are the #1 FG%
defensive team and one of the best against the 3 point shot.   Jerry Sloan
commented today “in the past we couldn't guard inside so we had a hard time
getting to shooters.”   Throughout the broadcasts this season Ron Boone has
complimented Al Jefferson for his ability to stay between his man and
the basket.

   Again statistically this played out in the Numbers.   Over the past 4 seasons
the Jazz were a dramatically better defensive team with Boozer off the floor
than on the floor.


┌─────┬───────┬────────┐
│   YEAR   │PTS Allowed On│PTS Allowed off │
│          │Floor Per 48  │Floor Per 48    │
├─────┼───────┼────────┤
│2006-2007 │  109.2       │  106.5         │
├─────┼───────┼────────┤
│2007-2008 │  109.4       │  103.2         │
├─────┼───────┼────────┤
│2008-2009 │  111.9       │  106.9         │
├─────┼───────┼────────┤
│2009-2010 │  108.5       │  102.8         │
└─────┴───────┴────────┘


   The Jazz have the #1 EFG (effective field goal % - weighs 3 point shooting)
in the NBA at 46.3%.   A year ago the Jazz were 13th in the NBA at 49.2%.
Is all it Boozer's departure, probably not, but the numbers may have told us
this was going to happen.

   At the trade deadline the Jazz moved Ronnie Brewer.  Brewer had a reputation
for being a good defensive player.   However, the numbers told the exact
opposite.  The Jazz were a better defensive team with Brewer off the floor than
on the floor.


┌─────┬───────┬────────┐
│   YEAR   │PTS Allowed On│PTS Allowed off │
│          │Floor Per 48  │Floor Per 48    │
├─────┼───────┼────────┤
│2007-2008 │  108.9       │  106.3         │
├─────┼───────┼────────┤
│2008-2009 │  110.4       │  104.6         │
├─────┼───────┼────────┤
│2009-2010 │  107.5       │  106.1         │
└─────┴───────┴────────┘


   Brewer and Boozer were often on the floor together so it was always an easy
explanation for why Brewer's advanced stats looked so poor.  However, in
retrospect maybe the numbers were telling us something.

   The advanced stat world is hard to comprehend and value because of the
amount of statistical noise that exists evaluating one player dependent on 9
other players on the floor.  However, in the case of the Utah Jazz defensive
revival maybe we should have seen this coming.





                         http://www.nba.com/jazz/features/locked_on_jazz.html 

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推 CW4:老實說 我也在懷疑KOC是最佳總管之一了...
推 DK47:蠢品康那只是大智若愚？
噓 a350305:不趕快回應別人還以為我看不懂英文
推 enemy:KOC: 覆蓋一張牌  結束這回合
推 MOTONARI:爵士總冠軍!
推 tonometer:這篇看數據表就好,前兩個是Boozer,後面一個是Brewer
推 CW4:不過這個人自己也搞錯了 後面兩個表格都是per 100 Poss.不是
→ CW4:per 48 mins. 是看每一百個球權不是時間,不然快節奏的比較多防
→ CW4:守回數.
→ monmo:個人是覺得這種比法很鳥蛋.......
→ CW4:嗯 我現在對防守數據都持保留態度 DRtg這種進階的也一樣
→ semicoma:剩下就是全員健康打季後賽了
噓 pc009732:蠢品康感覺是傻人有傻服~"~
噓 steo:如果不是有個更_的Kahn大放送,純品有這種好運嗎
推 dreamknitter:這種比法好單純 @@ 覺得哪裡不妥 可是也說不上來 XD
推 species:我想這是有一定的意義,而且也跟大家的印象差不多,簡言之,
→ species:Boozer在有得分優勢可以抵消失分,但是很少blow out 對手
→ species:Brewer則是相反,所以他應該是不錯的替補,可惜有點貴
→ species:Brewer在場上通常是隊上對方的超級搖擺人,他又不夠髒,有這
→ species:的數據不意外
→ nuturewind:他的比法感覺把很多事情都簡單化了,有點不太公平~
→ sneak: Brewer在場上通常 https://daxiv.com