推 semicoma:這篇文章並沒提到爵士 所以爵士仍然是在平行宇宙打球 09/29 11:16
推 kerry0496x:沒了教皇的後果啊 09/29 12:05
推 ChrisPaul03:對爵士有利 09/29 12:37
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推 sam369:X 09/29 21:34
遙想上次封館那一年，
爵士一路領先到季末才被逆轉。
今年都新人，
一週五場沒問題，
人人有球打。
※ [本文轉錄自 NBA 看板 #1EWpG6Wa ]
作者: sampsonlu919 (父親，願你安息) 看板: NBA
標題: [專欄] Rosen：賽季縮水害馬刺湖人 雷霆望掀風暴
時間: Wed Sep 28 22:49:39 2011
http://www.espnstar.com.tw/news/basketball/2011/0925/215824.htm
專家：賽季縮水害馬刺湖人 雷霆望掀風暴
伴隨著最近一次勞資談判再次未能達成協議，43場季前賽被取消，新賽季的延後已經
成為了不可避免的。那麼NBA是否就此失去了2011-12賽季呢？來自HoopsHype的專家
Charlie Rosen撰文表達了他的觀點。在他看來，新賽季肯定不會被取消，但是縮短的
例行賽季是必然的，而對於30支球隊來說，真是幾家歡樂幾家愁。以下是原文編譯：
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thunder time in shortened season?
原文: http://bit.ly/nTcQrQ
翻譯: http://bit.ly/n3GK7k by鋤頭
http://bit.ly/nN0gdQ by鋤頭
Fear not, NBA fans. Even though both sides are still posturing, and numerous
preseason games have been cancelled, there’s virtually no chance that the
entire 2011-12 goes down the drain. That’s because David Stern will never
permit such a doomsday scenario to occur during his watch.
我想對NBA的球迷們說，不用害怕，新賽季一定會到來。雖然現在勞資雙方都在裝腔
作勢，誰也不肯做出大幅度的讓步，但是別忘記了NBA的掌控者David Stern，他絕對
不會允許這項運動整整一年不出現在電視轉播的畫面上，因此整個2011-12賽季付諸
東流是絕對不可能的。
Indeed, the very worst possibility is a return to the 1998-99 schedule that
comprised 50-games in twelve weeks
在我看來，新賽季必然會被縮短，畢竟很多場季前賽已經被取消了。最壞的結果是像
1998-99賽季那樣，例行賽中每支球隊需要在12個星期內打完50場比賽。
Over the course of a normal season, each team plays three games per week, but
the 1998-99 model, more than four games (4.17 to be exact) per week will be
necessary. Given this compacted schedule, which ball clubs will suffer and
which will prosper?
在正常的賽季裡，每支球隊每周需要進行大約3場比賽，不過參照1998-99賽季的賽程表
會發現，球隊每周參賽超過4場，平均每隊每周比賽4.17場。在這樣的高強度高密度賽程
下，哪些球隊能夠因此而獲益，而哪些球隊將會就此沉淪？
For sure, free agents signed and free agents lost might be significant, yet
the following predictions are based on the expected return of each team’s
core players.
在這裡我將對這樣的疑問進行推測，當然，一旦賽季恢復，球隊的陣容將會因為自由
球員市場和球員交易而發生變化，我的預測只是根據球隊現有的主力陣容和核心狀態，
以此來計算出球隊預期的合理回報。
面臨艱難時刻的球隊
HARD TIMES AHEAD
The San Antonio Spurs will be devastated by a short season.
Tim Duncan is 35 and was playing in slow motion during the latter part of
last season. His brilliant career is over the hill and deep in the valley
beyond, so playing every other day will only hasten his deterioration. Plus,
each game will assume such increased importance that TD’s minutes cannot be
curtailed.
聖安東尼奧馬刺是這類球隊的代表。上賽季最後階段，特別是在與灰熊的季後賽中，
Tim Duncan 的老化被無情的放大出來。這位也許是歷史上最佳大前鋒已經35歲了，
他的動作已經變得緩慢，力量和體力也退化了。顯然，他不太可能應付每周四場比賽
的頻率，而馬刺現在又無法找到可以減少 Duncan 出場時間的方案。
Both Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili have become increasingly prone to
injuries. Too bad a twelve-week season doesn’t allow sufficient time for any
but the most minor of injuries to fully heal.
Tony Parker 和 Manu Ginobili 隨著年齡的增長變得越來越容易受傷，而一個只有
12個星期的賽季使得任何傷病都是致命的，因為球隊沒有時間等待傷兵治療恢復然後
追上全隊的腳步。
The Big Three of the Boston Celtics are also candidates to suffer physical
breakdowns during the accelerated pace of an abbreviated schedule. Kevin
Garnett is a brittle 35, Paul Pierce has a lot of miles on his 35-year-old
wheels, and Ray Allen at 36 is always in remarkable condition, but has become
ominously inconsistent.
塞爾提克隊的三巨頭也可能會成為縮水賽季的受害者。Kevin Garnett 35歲，Paul
Pierce 生涯裡也已打了足夠多的比賽，36歲的 Ray Allen 雖然身體不錯，但他的
表現肯定會變得不穩定。
The Celtics can survive only if Rajon Rondo can expand his offensive
capabilities, and if Jeff Green quickly evolves into a go-to scorer
如果 Rajon Rondo 能提升自己的進攻能力，那麼塞爾提克隊有可能會倖免，再就是要
取決於 Jeff Green 能否成為一個關鍵先生。
The Los Angeles Lakers are also in for a difficult go-round. There simply won
’t be time enough for LAL’s veterans to learn to trust Mike Brown and become
familiar with his system. Changing the focus of the offense from Kobe Bryant
to Andrew Bynum will create enormous friction, which will be compounded by the
noticeable erosion of Kobe’s talents as well as his increasing susceptibility
to nagging injuries.
湖人隊同樣存有風險，他們最大的問題就是老將們沒有足夠的時間去信任和學習 Mike
Brown 的戰術體系。把進攻重心從 Kobe Bryant 轉移到 Andrew Bynun 身上會引起
不小的爭議，柯比盡管受到傷病困擾，但他依舊是聯盟中最出色的得分手之一。
Also, Brown will be under extreme time-pressure to win over the thumper-who-
used-to-be-known-as Ron Artest, whose lackadaisical play last year destroyed
any vestige of team chemistry.
布朗還需要有額外的時間來馴化 Ron Artest，假如他情緒受到影響，這會影響全隊的
化學變化。
By April Fool’s Day, the elder statesmen of the Phoenix Suns —Steve Nash
(37) and Grant Hill (soon to be 39)—will need walkers to get up and down the
court.
另外一些老齡球隊也前景堪憂，Steve Nash 和 Grant Hill 可能會因為頻繁的比賽而
體能透支，他們要拄著拐棍離場。
迎來美好時代的球隊
GOOD TIMES AHEAD
The team that would benefit the most from a compacted schedule is the
Oklahoma City Thunder. The young legs of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook
James Harden and Serge Ikaba would remain spry even if they had to play five
or six games every week. In fact, if the upcoming regular season only lasts
50 games, the Thunder would be the favorites to succeed the Mavs as NBA
champs.
雷霆將是顯而易見的受益者。Kevin Durant、Russell Westbrook、Serge Ibaka、James
Harden 這些人就算每晚都有比賽也可以在球場上活蹦亂跳。雷霆的陣容相當穩定，不
需要擔心戰術磨合的問題，他們上賽季打進了西區決賽，已經擁有了足夠的經驗。假如
新賽季真的只剩下50場例行賽，雷霆將是不可阻擋的。
The Chicago Bulls’ roster is also loaded with young’uns—Derrick Rose, Luol
Deng, Taj Gibson, and Joakim Noah.
公牛隊的陣容裡同樣有多位年輕核心－Derrick Rose、Loul Deng、Taj Gibson和 Joakim
Noah
A shortened season necessarily means a brief training camp, which means that
offenses all over the league won’t be finely tuned until the season is nearly
half over. One result is that the Bulls’ aggressive defense will be even more
effective than ever before.
縮水賽季意味著沒有足夠的訓練營時間，這也意味著賽季過半時大部分球隊才能找到進攻
感覺，而公牛隊富有攻擊性的防守會比以往更高效。
A short season will allow the Miami Heat to hide their inadequacies in the
middle and at the point, while permitting LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris
Bosh to run wild. The playoffs, though, will still demand the Three
Mouseketeers to transform themselves into lions.
這也許是邁阿密三巨頭奪冠的最好時刻。雖然縮短的賽季使得他們打出真正戰術的可能
性下降，但是 LeBron James、Dwyane Wade和 Chris Bosh 的個人能力保證他們能夠在
縮短的賽季中為所欲為。只不過想要奪冠，他們在季後賽中需要做得更好。
The Dallas Mavericks still have their championship glow, and since their
2010-11 season extended deep into June, they will benefit by the extra
recuperation time.
小牛隊仍有奪冠希望，因為他們的2010-11賽季延續到六月，他們會從更多的休息時間
裡受益。
If Dirk Nowitzki has lost a few steps and is absorbing more body contact than
he used to, and if Jason Kidd at 38 hasn’t gotten any quicker, the Mavs bench
is young, eager, and very deep. Look for Dallas to pace themselves during the
mad dash to the playoffs, and then be ready to re-ignite their championship
fire.
也許 Dirk Nowitzki 有些退步，身體對抗能力不再像以往那樣，38歲的 Jason Kidd
也不再快速，但小牛隊的替補席是年輕的、有活力的，並且有足夠的深度。看看季後賽
中他們能掌控好步調，你就會明白他們已具備了衛冕的能力。
As for the rest, Orlando, Denver, Memphis, and New York will but not be
either good or bad enough to be affected either way.
剩下的球隊中，諸如魔術、金塊、尼克、灰熊之類，新賽季的縮短對其而言無所謂好壞
之分。
Outfits that need time to grow together—especially Indiana and the LA
Clippers—will run out of games just as their players begin to cohere.
而像印第安納溜馬隊和洛杉磯快艇隊這樣需要時間來磨合隊伍的球隊，或許賽季結束時
他們才剛剛找到感覺。
For teams like Cleveland, Minnesota, Toronto, New Jersey, Golden State, and
Detroit, even a brief season will be too long and too painful.
而對於騎士、暴龍、灰狼、籃網、勇士和活塞來說，新賽季盡管縮短了，但仍然是痛苦
而漫長的。
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