[爆料] 2016-17球季展望

[crownwell (維)]

For those Jazz fans that have been living in a cave or under a rock for the past
couple years, here’s a quick update to get you caught up:
對爵士迷來說，這幾年活著就像山頂洞人，或被巨石壓著般的難堪。接下來我們來快速更新
一下近況︰

Through Monday's contest against Miami, the Jazz have played 27 games and have
the second-worst winning percentage in the NBA with a record of 6-21.
周一跟熱火打完，我們已賽27場，並擁有倒數第二的聯盟勝率。

The statistics don’t look any better. The Jazz have been outplayed by their
opponents in virtually every meaningful statistic: points, field goal percentage
, three-point percentage, rebounding, turnovers, assists, steals and blocks.
數據面來看找不到褒揚之處，得分、命中率、三分命中率……幾乎每一項都輸人。

Now, before you go stark raving mad, here’s the good news: Nobody cares, and
neither should you. This is the season of discovery. It’s the year of the youth
movement. It’s a beginning point for the future.
在你生氣前，告訴你個好消息︰沒有人在乎，且你也應該一樣。這季看球就像在看探索頻道
，是生機蓬勃的一季，也是未來的起點。

In other words, this season for the Jazz is not about winning games. Virtually
no one predicted the Jazz would make the playoffs or contend for a championship
this year and, well, sometimes the experts are right.
換言之，本季目標不是贏球，幾乎沒人預測我們能進季後賽跟拿總冠軍，嗯，有時訓練有素
的狗是對的。

If there was a Jazz player, coach, fan or front office member that was
optimistic enough before the season to believe the Jazz would compete for the
playoffs, surely they have adjusted their thinking after just six wins in 27
tries.
如果有球員、教練、球迷或制服組樂觀表示我們能打進季後賽，在27場只贏6場後，他們肯
定會修正這想法了。

So, under the assumption that the Jazz have no chance of making the playoffs
this season, what then is the purpose of the team’s final 55 games?
既然在此假設下爵士已沒法進季後賽，那剩下55場有何意義？

The purpose is for the Jazz to do everything they possibly can to set themselves
up for future playoff runs and serious contention.
主要用意為︰試著讓他們在未來能準備好季後賽跟激烈的競爭。

The target is the 2016-17 season.
目標就放在2016-17年。

Coach Tyrone Corbin has 240 minutes to give out per game. These minutes should
be divided up with an eye toward the 2016-17 season. Every strategy the Jazz
implement, every play call they make, should be done with an eye toward the
future. Everything the Jazz do should be with an eye toward that season.
烤餅一場比賽有240分鐘可用(場上五人*48分)，那分配時要著眼於2016-17年。任一項戰術
執行，每喊一個play，都要著眼於未來。爵士做的每一件事都要跟那一季有關。

The 2016-17 season is three years from now and is the earliest anyone can
realistically expect the next title-contending era of Utah Jazz basketball to
begin. If the Jazz play their cards right and avoid major injuries, that season
could be the beginning of a very nice window for the Jazz to compete for an NBA
championship for a number of years.
從今起到2016-17年恰好三年，這也是務實思考後爵士能開始有實力爭奪冠軍的一年，如果
這牌局我們好好打，且成長過程無重大傷病傳出，2016-17年就能開始進入強隊之林並一直
爭奪冠軍好些年。

Here is a glimpse of what the 2016-17 team might look like:
我們2016-17的隊伍可能長得像這樣。

Starters 先發五虎

Center Enes Kanter: Kanter, the former third-overall pick, will be 24 years old
and going into his sixth NBA season. Look for Kanter to be making $8-$12 million
that season based on his current growth curve.
中鋒阿坎︰前探花，屆時將24歲並邁入第6個球季，根據他的成長曲線他大概會領的8~12M。

Power forward Derrick Favors: Favors, another third-overall pick, will be 25
years old and going into his seventh NBA season. Favors is already under
contract for that season and will make about $11 million.
大前鋒肥佛︰也是前探花，屆時25歲並邁入第7季，我們已跟他簽好約，他到時會拿11M左右

Small forward Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker: Assuming the Jazz are able to get
one of the top three picks in next year’s draft, they should be able to land
one of these two guys. Wiggins or Parker will be going into their third NBA
season in 2016-17 and will still be on a rookie contract, making between $4-$5
million. To contend the Jazz will need their first pick in the 2014 NBA draft to
be a top-10 NBA player by his third season.
小前鋒呷百二 or 威金斯︰假設我們能拿到前三順位籤，那應該拿胡到其中一位，屆時他
們將是第三季並手拿菜鳥合約，領4~5M左右。我們也要堅決主張他們第三季就是聯盟中前十
強的巨星了。

Shooting guard Gordon Hayward: Hayward will be 26 years old and going into his
seventh NBA season. Look for Hayward to be making $12-$15 million by then.
得分後衛黑蛙︰到時候他是26歲並邁入第7季，搞不好他會拿12~15M。

Point guard Trey Burke: Burke will be 24 years old and going into his fourth NBA
season. He will be on the final year of his rookie contract that will pay him
about $3.4 million.
控球後衛TB︰到時將24歲並邁入第4季。那是他菜鳥約最後一年並拿3.4M。

Bench 替補

Guard Alec Burks: Burks will be 25 years old and going into his sixth NBA season
. Look for Burks to make $7-$10 million that season.
後衛小AB︰屆時25歲並邁入第6季，他大概會拿7-10M左右。

Center Rudy Gobert: Gobert will be 24 years old and going into his fourth NBA
season. Like Burke, he will be in the final year of his rookie contract that
will pay him about $2.1 million.
中鋒狗博︰到時將24歲並邁入第4季。那是他菜鳥約最後一年並拿2.1M。

Top-13 pick in 2015 NBA draft: Plan on the 2014-15 season being an extension of
the youth movement. Look for the Jazz to make big improvements during the 2014-
15 season but not enough to make the playoffs. If they end up with a top-5 pick
in that draft, consider this a sign that the current core is not good enough to
compete for a title. The player the Jazz take with this pick will be in his
second NBA season and should make about $2 million in 2016-17.

2015年選秀前13順位︰計畫中2014-15年還是生機蓬勃的階段，展望該年應有所進步但仍不
足以進季後賽。且如果還拿到前五順位，更表示核心陣容沒有奪冠實力。選來的球員在2016
-17年會是他的第2季並領2M。

Warriors’ pick in 2014 NBA draft: The Jazz acquired the Warriors’ first-round
pick in a trade this past offseason. The Warriors started hot this season but
have cooled considerably, which is good for the Jazz. Right now the Warriors
have the 12th-best record in the league which would put the Jazz’s pick around
No. 18. The player the Jazz select here will be going into his third NBA season
and will be making about $1.5 million in 2016-17.
勇士2014年的選秀籤︰我們休季期間透過交易拿到勇士第一輪選秀籤，他們開季火燙但現在
冷卻不少了，現在勇士戰績是第12名，若維持這樣將是第18順位，選來的球員在2016-17年
會是他的第3季並領1.5M。

Forward Jeremy Evans: Evans will be 29 years old and going into his seventh NBA
season. Evans has been playing more minutes this season and is showing he can be
an effective role player in the league.
前鋒灌籃王︰到時候他是29歲並邁入第7季，本季他獲得更多上場時間並證明自己能扮演很
有效率的角色。

Salary Cap  薪資上限

The luxury tax threshold this current NBA season is nearly $72 million. It
should go up over the next few seasons. Even if you take the high-end on all
salary predictions for the players projected to be on the Jazz’s roster in
2016-17, it would only put the team at right around a $62 million payroll. This
should leave the Jazz plenty of room to fill out the roster, re-sign Burke after
the season and maintain sufficient payroll flexibility moving forward.
目前豪華稅門檻是72M，未來幾季應會再上升，如果我們都把2016-17年爵士球員的上限估最
高，大概也是62M左右，這也有足夠空間去補球員，續簽TB並保持薪資彈性。

Obstacles  阻礙

By no means is the Jazz’s rebuilding plan a safe bet to lead them to title
contention. There are many potential obstacles in the way, some of which the
Jazz control and some of which they don't.
爵士的重建計畫絕對不是一個很安全的賭注，途中還有很多的阻礙，有些我們能控制但有些
不行。

The Jazz do not control, or at least do not fully control, player health,
player development, and players like Hayward, Burks and Kanter choosing to
re-sign with the team after their rookie contracts expire.
我們無法控制，或無法完全控制︰球員的健康、動向，黑蛙、TB、阿坎等新人約後的續簽。

As real as those threats may be, the single biggest threat to the Jazz’s
rebuilding plan is team management. The Jazz must make certain they do not get
in their own way. The front office and coaches must be on the same page.
所以重建最大的威脅就是球隊管理，我們要確信我們在正確的道路上，制服組跟教練見解要
一致。

Dennis Lindsey, the team’s general manager, has to ensure that the coaches
realize and appreciate that every minute given to players that are not likely to
be major contributors for the Jazz three seasons from now is essentially a
minute gone to waste.
總管琳賽要確信教練了解，從現在開始到三個球季後，球員拼戰的每一分鐘都無法對爵士有
太重大的貢獻，因為這是註定要浪費的。

The same goes for next season.
下一季也一樣。

There is no long-term upside to the Jazz giving guys like Richard Jefferson,
Marvin Williams or Andres Biedrins significant minutes. The concept of any of
those guys playing more minutes than any player that is more likely to be
contributing in 2016-17 is nothing short of bad team management.
給RJ、媽寶、拉脫維亞長人太多的上場時間，長期來說對爵士不利。本質上這些球員打得比
2016-17班底還長就是很爛的管理。

There should not be a single Jazz fan that wants to see, in any game, Jefferson
play more than Burks, Williams play more than Kanter or Biedrins play more than
Gobert.
應該沒球迷樂見︰RJ打得比小AB久；媽寶壓過阿坎；用拉脫維亞人甚於狗博。

The fact that the Jazz sent Gobert to the D-League is proof that fans could have
legitimate reasons to worry about the Jazz getting in their own way.
像把狗博下放發展聯盟，就會讓球迷擔憂爵士重建路是否走偏了。

Think about it. If the Jazz’s purpose this season has nothing to do with making
the playoffs then it has everything to do with player development. Players
develop by getting on the court in meaningful situations and learning the
difference between doing things right and doing things wrong. For a vast
majority of players this means learning some hard lessons and making a lot of
mistakes.
想想看，如果爵士重視球員的潛值發展，遠勝於想進季後賽，那讓球員在場上體會不同的狀
況，學習分辨做對跟做錯，絕大多數的人就能被震撼教育並嘗試很多錯誤。

Players cannot make meaningful mistakes that help them grow from the bench.
球員可不能在場邊觀戰時，從錯誤中啟發成長。

The Jazz make a mistake and get in their own way every time their coach worries
about matchups with the other team this season or pulls a young player for
making mistakes. The only long-term thing that makes sense for the Jazz is to
give Favors, Burke, Hayward, Kanter and Burks 36 minutes per game. Gobert and
Evans should get between 15-20 minutes per game. The other 20-30 minutes per
game? Who cares?
爵士目前的錯誤在於烤餅擔憂每一場的對戰，還因年輕球員犯錯就把他揪下來。合理的長期
策略應讓肥佛、TB、黑蛙、阿坎、小AB每場打36分鐘，狗博跟灌籃王15~20分鐘，剩下20~30
分鐘誰上，誰鳥他？

If the Jazz follow that blueprint they will give the players of the future
maximum opportunity to develop. They will also, as a convenient bonus, set
themselves up for a top-3 draft pick next summer.
如果爵士照這藍圖走就給了這些球員最大的成長機會，這也能有便利的紅利，明年夏天穩拿
前三順位籤。

Every big move or small decision the Jazz make this season, and for the
foreseeable future, must be preceded by this overriding question: How does this
move make us better in 2016-17?
本季與可預見得未來做得任一個大大小小的決定，都將取決於此問題︰這能讓我們2016-17
年更強嗎？

新聞來源:http://ppt.cc/7Bjo
Commentary: For the Jazz, it's all about 2016-17

把顏色換一下，看讀起來會不會比較舒服
本來想要翻黑蛙的投籃選擇 http://ppt.cc/RP3X
但這篇有趣得多，把Gobert, Clark下放我也覺得沒必要
但薪資的估算我就沒概念了
作者這樣預估算合理嗎？

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GO!JAZZ!GO!

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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 140.112.25.97
※ 編輯: crownwell       來自: 140.112.25.97        (12/20 13:05)
推 BIGP:我覺得我們能拿到第四順位的籤就該偷笑了
噓 SpencerHawes:未來巨星降臨鹽湖城 NBA利益就虧大了 應該會是NO.4後
推 aodn:Gobert在發展聯盟根本是打歡樂盃,30出頭時間就雙十外帶鍋,罰
→ aodn:球也比一般長人好,在講求速度的現代籃球,阿坎那樣的地板流除
→ aodn:非能學得Boo的打法,不然Gobert將來才是更適合我們的
噓 monmo:這篇太理想化了... 鹽湖城球迷偶爾還是要取悅一下的
推 amonway:Jabari Parker今天打得太沉穩了...22pts..10rebs
推 JeremyEvans:黑娃long2 39%, 3分 26%, 算一下得分效率  咦?
噓 zevrev:乾脆把目標放在2020好了