The founder of Intel Company and the author of the well-known Moore旧 Law,
Gordon Moore, announced that the doubling of the number of transistors which
he had predicted to happen every 1.5-2 years in the processor industry may get
slowed down. He claims that the die size is reduced slower than before that
is why the number transistors will double only every 4-5 years in the future.
If they use EUV, Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography (with 240nm wave), they will
be able to maintain the current tempo for another while, however, the slowing
down is inevitable. The current CMOS technology will anyway get limited by the
0.03micron manufacturing technology.
When the press people asked Gordon Moore about the next revolution in the IT
field, he responded that the revolution is to come in the speech recognition
field, when people get the opportunity to communicate with a PC as if it were
a normal person. However, it is still quite far away from now: 10-50 years
ahead.
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