作者abc12812 ()
看板Cubs
標題What the Fukudome Happened to Kosuke?
時間Wed Dec 10 20:34:17 2008
http://tinyurl.com/5wkqxs
When Kosuke Fukudomo came stateside last offseason, expectations were fairly
high. After all, the longtime Chunichi Dragons stud compiled a .305/.397/.543
career line in Japan, winning the league's Central League MVP as well as taking
home gold in the inaugural World Baseball Classic in 2006. Intrigued by his
broad base of skills, the Chicago Cubs inked Fukudome to a four-year, $48
million deal.
While Fukudome’s power numbers figured to take a hit upon transitioning to
Major League Baseball, his translated numbers still figured to be pretty
lofty. Baseball Prospectus 2008 called the 31 year-old “someone who can get
on base at a .390 or .400 clip while contributing in all facets of the game.”
PECOTA called for a .289/.401/.504 line, and Fukudome’s most comparable
players were promising: J.D. Drew, Jim Edmonds and Fred Lynn ranked
prominently on the list.
Fukudomania swept the Windy City last spring, as the lefty batter got off to
a searing start. He batted .327/.436/.480 in March and April, drawing a
Bondsian 19 walks in 117 PA. May was also productive, if less powerful, as he
hit .293/.388/.404 with 16 free passes in the same number of plate
appearances. As the Cubs entered summer, Fukudome continued to contribute by
posting a .264/.387/.402 line in June.
It was at the point, however, that the wheels fell off. July was a tough month
(.236/.306/.382), but we hadn’t seen anything yet: August brought forth a
sickly .193/.293/.253 showing that would make Tony Pena Jr. blush, and
Fukudome’s descent continued into September and early October
(.178/.288/.289).
So, what the heck caused Fukudome to transform him from an on-base fiend to an
offensive drag who ended up plastered to the Cubs bench down the stretch? To
try and answer that question, I examined Fukudome’s pitch data over the
course of the season. I figured that as opposing pitchers became more
familiar with Fukudome, they might have discovered a weakness in his game
that would present itself in an increase (or decrease) in certain pitches
thrown.
As it turns out, essentially nothing changed in terms of pitch selection as
the 6-0, 187 pounder shifted from Fukudomania to Fukufourthoutfielder. And as
I dug deeper into his tale of two seasons, it became apparent that lady luck
had an effect on the proceedings. Here’s a look at some of Fukudome’s key
indicators over his red-hot start and ice-cold finish:
March through June
340 PA 15.5 BB%, 19.5 K%, 20.1 LD%, 50.9 GB%, .133 ISO, .349 BABIP
July through October
250 PA, 11.8 BB%, 22.5 K%, 17.8 LD%, 50.1 GB%, .105 ISO, .251 BABIP
Sure, there are some differences between the two stretches, but nothing that
comes close to explaining the gargantuan shift in performance. Rather, it
seems that Fukudome had some pretty awful luck on balls in play from July
onward. With each passing month, fewer and fewer ducksnorts fell in for hits:
Fukudome’s BABIP by month:
April/March: .392
May: .325
June: .317
July: .306
August: .217
September/Oct.: .194
While Lou Pinella seemed to lose confidence in his new right fielder as the
season progressed, it doesn’t appear as though Fukudome’s true talent level
changed all that much. In all probability, Fukudome is neither the star of
April nor the scrub of September.
On the whole, Fukudome batted .257/.359/.379 with a refined approach at the
plate (13.9 BB%, 20 O-Swing%). His strikeout rate was a little high (20.8%)
and his .122 ISO was very tame for a corner outfielder. Luckily for Fukudome
and the Cubs, his stellar defensive work (13.4 UZR per 150 games in RF) might
mean that he could shift to center, putting less of an onus on his modest pop.
Of course, that won’t change Fukudome’s value in the vast majority of
leagues, but he is still someone to consider taking a flyer on. Most people
will focus on his finish, where he endured a see-a-black-cat,
walk-under-a-dozen-ladders unlucky BABIP stretch, but Fukudome could be a
good source of OBP in the later rounds.
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◆ From: 140.112.5.3
→ Dorasaga:其實明眼人都看得出來是他自己的approach出現問題, 12/10 20:43
→ Dorasaga:並非"the league figured him out"...這些本文更詳解... 12/10 20:44
→ Dorasaga:但是沒有, 實在不是好文章... 12/10 20:46
→ abc12812:是嗎? 可是他之前打那麼好幹嘛改變approach? 12/10 20:52
→ Dorasaga:例: 我昨天用MOD HD看了Fuk在明星賽的揮擊... 12/10 21:09
→ Dorasaga:算了, 這得另開文...簡單講: 他忘了自己在Nagoya為何成功 12/10 21:10
→ Dorasaga:他從春訓開始就放棄了power...然後, 他從6月開始棄保送, 12/10 21:10
→ Dorasaga:求Ichiro-hits... 12/10 21:10
→ Dorasaga:結果變成四不像... 12/10 21:11
→ Dorasaga:April, he wanted on-base ONLY. fine. 12/10 21:11
→ Dorasaga:June, he wanted MORE clutch, not keeping his on-base, 12/10 21:11
→ Dorasaga:NOT FINE. 12/10 21:12