[新聞] 阿聯的Etihad Airways 考慮併購 Air Berlin

[nyrnu (ccc)]

Etihad Airlines Considers Takeover of Air Berlin

Dec 21, 2008
By Jens Flottau

Etihad Airways could acquire Europe's third largest low-fare airline, Air
Berlin, a move that would lead to an entirely new business model of airline
combinations.

Industry sources note that Etihad has been exploring the merits of the idea
for weeks, looking at how such a takeover could be implemented and how
networks would have to be realigned for the deal to make commercial sense.
Those sources indicate that Etihad isn't at a decision-making stage and that
the in-depth studies haven't been presented to its board of directors. CEO
James Hogan declined to comment, though the company posted a boilerplate
response: "As a matter of principle we don't comment on rumors and
speculation." An Air Berlin representative said he was unaware of any such
plans.

There are several key reasons for the rationale behind the potential deal.
Tieing up with Air Berlin would give Etihad access to a network of feeder
services in Europe, particularly Germany, that might help channel more
traffic to its long-haul services. Etihad, like Emirates, has been lobbying
hard for more traffic rights to Germany, which it considers to be one of its
key growth markets. Those efforts have not succeeded, partly because
Lufthansa's influence on the political establishment in Berlin is still
strong. Also, Air Berlin is by far the cheapest takeover target in Europe of
any significant size. The company is valued at €281 million ($404.6 million)
following the decline of its share price from the 2007 high of €21 to €4.21
today.

Etihad has been linked with takeover plans in the past. Sources close to
Hogan note that he has said as recently as October that "we are definitely
going to participate in industry consolidation," without specifying a target.
Etihad officials in November denied talks about a possible merger with its
neighbor, Emirates. With Dubai's real estate and financial sector in deep
trouble, the emirate of Abu Dhabi is said to have offered financial support
to Dubai in return for equity stakes in strategic industries. Abu Dhabi still
has huge oil reserves that it can rely on, while Dubai's economic growth over
the past decades has been based on real estate, financial services, trade and
tourism rather than its limited oil reserves.

Industry insiders question how Etihad could make an Air Berlin transaction
work commercially. The German carrier has a well-established, dense and
non-centered European and domestic network currently served by a fleet of 112
aircraft. Its biggest bases are Dusseldorf and Berlin - two airports not
served by Etihad. To a limited degree, Air Berlin could feed Etihad's Munich
services and to an even lesser degree its Frankfurt departures. Slot
constraints make reshaping of the network difficult. But even if the link-up
works, "the long-haul product would still be inferior on many routes," one
source points out. To Asian destinations, Air Berlin/Etihad would have to
offer two-stop connections via Munich (or another European airport) and Abu
Dhabi, which will soon become a facility for hub traffic. Its European and
Asian competitors could, by contrast, sell one-stop connections or even
nonstop services, at least to the big population centers on both ends of the
route.

If the deal proceeds, Etihad would be the first to accomplish a takeover
across continents, after talks between British Airways and Qantas failed last
week. In addition to its commercial limitations, the airlines would face
regulatory hurdles such as bilateral air service agreements and subsequent
traffic rights issues. It is therefore unclear if outright majority ownership
of Air Berlin is feasible particularly since the airline already has a strong
31.2% foreign ownership component. Air Berlin's biggest shareholders include
U.S./Russian investor Len Blavatnik (18.94%), Hans-Joachim Knieps (9.59%) and
JPMorgan Chase (4.97%). The free float is at 65.71%.

Both airlines have strong growth ambitions that have not yet paid off.
Etihad, launched in late 2003 as the new national airline of Abu Dhabi,
currently operates 39 widebodies. It has also placed orders for 35 Boeing
787s, 10 777s, and 55 Airbus jets, a combination of A320s, A350XWBs and
A380s. In the past, Hogan said that the airline is expected to see its first
profit in 2010, but that goal is getting more elusive as a result of the
global recession. While Etihad does not publish detailed financials, company
sources say it has posted a loss in excess of $1 billion in 2007. But, as an
Abu Dhabi government-owned entity, the airline has been able to access
funding for its expansion, most recently new loans for two more A340-600s.
Its business model - much like Emirates' - is geared toward connecting
long-haul markets in Europe, the U.S., Asia and Africa through the Abu Dhabi
hub. But unlike Emirates, Etihad is developing a more regional network with
its new A320 fleet, too.

Air Berlin still expects a small profit in 2008 in spite of the high fuel
prices in the first three quarters and the sour economy. But excess capacity,
the complicated acquisitions of former rivals LTU and DBA, and a costly
expansion on business traveler-oriented long-haul routes that was terminated
earlier this year due to mounting losses, are huge impediments. Air Berlin's
financial situation has been the subject of much speculation, and if the
market continues to decline as expected, its situation seems bleak. On the
other hand, its network and slot holdings, as well as a long-established
relationship with German tour operators, are seen as valuable

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推 Chiardy:為什麼不考慮一下種花航空呢？這裡有一批飛行員和飛機好便
→ Chiardy:宜的，有需要的話就打這支電話吧......（遞紙條～～）
→ eslite12:非歐盟業者不能取得歐盟航空公司超過50%股份吧
→ nyrnu:真要掌控的話應該不用到50%吧,只要成為大大股東就可.
推 sb9595:(紙糰揉一揉丟掉)  哼! 才不要
→ sb9595:不過八卦還真多,之前聽說連EK都想要合併
推 eslite12:沒過50%就不算併購 不過迴避的方法很多啦其實
→ eslite12:之前失敗的英航併澳航時英航向澳洲政府提出的dual list
→ eslite12:是其中最簡單的一種