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The Blazers Report
By Jeff Robertson
for HOOPSWORLD.com
May 19, 2003, 18:15  Email this article
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Welcome to the May 19, 2003 edition of The Blazers Report. Today’s report
looks back at the season that was and what the offseason goals and projects
will be for the various members of the Portland Blazers.

I will say this right up front. This season was an absolute, unadulterated,
and complete failure. A member of the senior Blazers management stated in no
uncertain terms that the goal for this season was a 4th seed or higher for
home court advantage and advancing into the second round. The Blazers wound
up as the 6th seed in the playoffs and lost in the first round to the Dallas
Mavericks. Failure. Don’t get me wrong, I enjoyed the Blazers run in the first
round back from 0-3 and I really loved the optimism, but this season was a
failure, failure, failure. As a fan, as a Portland native and as a Portland
resident, this is embarrassing and needs to be fixed. Luckily, that’s exactly
the Blazers’ plan. Today’s article will review the latest in the general
manager/president search and will look at each player and coach’s season,
the dream offseason, the likely offseason and the worst-case offseason.
Today’s article will feature the frontcourt. The backcourt and coaches will
be next week.

The General Manager/President Search Continues

The Blazers continue their search for a general manger and are refining their
search for President.

President

Sources tell me that they will be literally shocked if Erin Hubert is not
named President. With the decision to go to two jobs leaving the basketball
control entirely in the hand of the general manager and the business side of
the team in the hands of a president, the job is said to be Erin Hubert’s in
all but officially named. Hubert is a very talented executive who has done a
nice, but in my opinion not stellar job running the business of the team. I
would certainly like to see Ms. Hubert have been more involved in the public
relations of the team, but it may have been something that was not part of
her job. There is no question that Erin Hubert has the skills and the ability
to run the Blazers and the progressive nature of appointing, what I would
think is, the first female executive of a NBA team would be an excellent move
for a city renowned for it’s progressive and liberal nature. She will have a
very difficult job in marketing this team and in its public relations. I was
in a bar the other night with someone exclaiming that the most effective
Blazers ad on television includes nobody from the team. That’s a tough sell.

General Manager

Sources tell the Blazers Report that the General Manager search will heat up
with the Sacramento Kings out of playoff contention and will likely end
sometime next week. The top candidates are said to be Geoff Petrie and Kiki
Vandeweghe, with both carefully considering their options and neither one
particularly the top candidate. Kiki is weighing his options as it’s a
critical point with the Nuggets and in his rebuilding plan. Kiki has the
Nuggets prepared to make some free agent signings, of which his prior
relationship with some of the players, bordering on tampering, is vital to
the Nuggets signing these players. While Gil Arenas will likely sign with
Denver no matter who the general manager is, what to do with the other $10
million is very uncertain. The Nuggets could make a run at a high profile
player such as Jermaine O’Neal or Elton Brand or be content to sign a Michael
Olowakandi type. However, the Nuggets have to be very careful being held up
for ransom by agents using the Nuggets as leverage for higher deals elsewhere.
Kiki’s decision to stay or leave will also vary greatly on the lottery this
weekend. If the Nuggets end up with the top pick and LeBron James, Kiki’s
position in Denver becomes even more difficult to walk out on. On the positive
side for Portland, Kiki does enjoy Portland, is a west coast guy, knows many
members of the team and the community and would be a well liked person as well
as would have complete basketball control, something he does not have in
Denver.

Geoff Petrie is weighing the decision of whether Portland is a better job than
his current position. In fact, sources tell me that Petrie was not necessarily
interested in the position until the Kings’ loss has forced a realization that
this Kings group may not be ready to compete for the NBA finals after all. It
is an all too familiar tale that a team gets to the brink of championship
contention only to lack the required mental makeup to be a champion. Some teams
push and probe and then finally break through and some just fall away, and
the Kings certainly look like their window is rapidly closing. This changes
things for Petrie as Petrie would have liked to stay with the Maloof’s, who
are great owners, and with his team he built in Sacramento. However, with a
potential coaching change looming and some critical personnel decisions,
Petrie may figure that it is time for Wayne Cooper to lead the charge and
Petrie will move to Portland to resurrect that team and move it to a
championship.

The Blazers are said to prefer Petrie to Kiki, but Paul Allen has a much
closer relationship with Kiki, which in some cases evens the two candidates.
Petrie is the better basketball experienced general manager, whereas Kiki has
real potential with understanding the cap and is said to be better at
relating to the team, something the Blazers drastically need as Whitsitt had
essentially alienated them all.

The other candidates such as Chris Wallace, Ernie Grunfield, Jim Paxson and
others are said to be on an expanded list that may be interviewed or discuss
the job within the next week. Clyde Drexler is expected to have some role
with the team, but not likely as general manager or president, particularly
after he wisely took himself all but out of the running for both positions
last week leaving himself open to a role with the team, particularly in
public relations. Maybe Clyde will implement my idea of having the Blazers
referee some games during the summer so everyone can see the Blazers holding
whistles and wearing refs uniforms and maybe getting verbally assaulted by
some heavy set 50 year old at the Tualatin Valley Rec Center saying no way
did he reach in on the shot. Nothing like anger management class in a ref's
uniform.

Blazers Review

Let’s look at each player for the Blazers and consider their season and
outlook? Ok let’s.

The Blazers sources that I have tell me that the new general manager will be
given the instruction to make the Blazers a championship contender, but has
a 3-4 year plan in which to do so. The Blazers will be competitive enough to
keep their playoff streak alive, they will be competitive enough to see it
click and win a championship, but most likely they will be looking 3 years
from now and focusing on the Spurs and Duncan as the potential dynasty arch
nemesis replacing the Lakers as Shaq nears retirement at that time.

Dale Davis

There may be no more e-mailed question by the faithful 12 to the Blazers
Report than what is Dale Davis’s contract status. I have had Blazers’
organization members and Davis’ people tell me that he’s signed for 2 more
years, no question. Other people state that Dale had a deal that was nullified,
but there is an understanding that they will sign the deal now. Others say
he's a free agent. With players making far less than Dale would be with a 2
year $20 million contract, the Blazers would like it if they could sign him
to around $7 million per season. Expect Dale to end up at 2 years/$20 million
even if it is a new contract.

Davis had a solid, but unspectacular year, failing to live up to his increased
promise from the 2001-02 season. Dale averaged 7.4 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.2
assist, 1 block, 54% field goal shooting and 63% free throw shooting. These
numbers are right in line with his career numbers and are the numbers the
Blazers can likely expect over the next two years.

Dream Outlook: Dale is an unrestricted free agent and signs a 2 year deal for
$14 million. Reduced economy Dale, no more Vegas trips when you are unhappy.
Dale averages 2001-02 numbers instead of 2002-03 and does not party on New
Year’s Eve to the point of sickness in Chicago again.

Realistic Outlook: Dale will be suiting up for the Blazers with a 2 year $20
million deal and Dale continues to put up 7.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game.
He plays strong defense but starts to wear down a little easier as he is not
quite as big as the guys he plays defense against most nights.

Worst Case Outlook: Dale makes $20 million but his reduced numbers were a sign
of age and not career numbers. Dale continues to fade as his enormous athletic
ability lessens and he is unable to keep up defensively with the bigger Duncans
and Shaq’s of the world.

Arvydas Sabonis

Who’s Vydas is he anyway? Well he’s ourvydas of course. Sabonis came off the
bench to average almost 6 points, 4 rebounds and a stunning 1.8 assist in 15
minutes per game. Yes, almost the same as Rasheed in 22 minutes more per game.
Sabonis played solid second team ball and showed that he’s really unnecessary
until the playoffs, but it would help to have at least one other big guy on the
roster so he can rest a bit.

Dream outlook: Let’s be honest, last year was a dream, I’ll take that again.

Realistic outlook: Each year, a little less-vydas, a little more injury and
creaky bones.

Worst case outlook: The big guy just does not make it back over the pond again.

Rasheed Wallace

All of a sudden everyone is putting away the number 30 jerseys, stores are
marking them down and Rasheed is the new public enemy number one. What Rasheed
does not realize is that he should just watch Chris Webber once in awhile.
Webber is a lesser talented player who realizes that he should stay in the
paint on defense and rebound the ball, attempt to block shots and smile his big
toothy smile and people love him. Mind you that Webber is currently actually
indicted on criminal charges, is a frequent visitor to the NCAA office and
generally shat on the city of Sacramento when traded there. He’s a fan
favorite. Wallace, who seems to irrationally hate officials, but otherwise is
a model citizen sans the occasional J with some buddies, and the fans vilify
him. Rasheed needs the media and if he would just realize it and give them
some conversation, he would be much better off.

Rasheed this season managed a regression all the way back to 99-00 without the
3-point shot. Rasheed’s averages went down to 18.1 points, 7.4 rebounds and
47% field goal shooting. When you look at 99-00 when he was not shooting 3s,
you will notice that Rasheed’s problem is not 3-point shooting. At that
point he went 16.4 points, 7 rebounds and 52% shooting. Rasheed’s real
problem is not being aggressive and having small hands on the rebound.
Rasheed has to grab rebounds with 2 hands which leaves him at a disadvantage.
He will always be a 7-8 per game rebounder. He seems to fancy himself as a
3-point shooter. Granted he’s down 5% per game in field goal percentage but
averaging more points through his 3s. The real difference is that Rasheed
took 4.1 3s per game this year making 1.5. The prior year Rasheed managed 2.1
per game hitting 0.7. The prior year he had almost the same field goal
percentage and more points per game by almost 2 per game. It’s fine for
Rasheed to take the 3, it’s just gotten out of hand. 2.1 per game keeps the
defense honest and keeps him in the paint. 4.1 keeps him as an Antoine Walker
and as it’s not giving the team anything, cut 2 out.

The Blazers are once again facing a power forward crisis. Teams like Orlando
and Seattle are just asking for one power forward, in 10-12 years, but the
Blazers, to Whitsitt’s credit, continue to mine top young power forwards,
but causing playing time controversy. This time between Zach and Rasheed.
Trade Rasheed? Then who guards Dirk, Duncan and KG? Keep Rasheed, then who
keeps the team from imploding?

Dream Outlook: Rasheed is traded in a package for Kevin Garnett. This is the
embarrassing night time, probably messy, dream for most of my 40 year old,
impotent and unemployed reading audience. What am I saying? They are probably
running around in “The Matrix” right now and not reading anyway, but I’ll
give them the chance to tear away from the chat rooms to read my article.
Rasheed for KG will be the constant possible trade, but come on, if you are
moving KG, do you really want to see him 2 times per year? I doubt it. Look
for KG to the Bulls and not the Blazers headaches. Now, if you brought in
Rasheed and Zach together? Maybe, but doubtful. Jermaine O’Neal may be in
the dream category for some, but this is very unlikely. Okay, almost out of
the realm unlikely.

Realistic Outlook: Yes, the most realistic outlook is the Blazers keeping
Rasheed in 03-04. The Blazers will look to move Rasheed, but it will be
difficult and may decide he’s better trade bait after the season in a sign
and trade or just coming off the cap, as compared to getting some more
difficult contracts for his services as well as keep the KG dream alive, which
probably comes to a crux next offseason. Darkhorse realistic outlook? Try the
Bulls with Jalen Rose and Tyson Chandler for Rasheed.

Worst Case Outlook: The Blazers feel the pressure to move Rasheed and wind up
trading him for players such as Antoine Walker or Jonathan Bender. Please. Oh
please no.

Zach Randolph

Zach really came alive in the playoffs and suddenly the ex- and maybe current
thug from Northern Indiana is a sign of who the Blazers should keep and they
should get rid of all those bad character guys like Damon and Rasheed. Come on
people. Zach was the guy punished in high school for carrying a gun. Zach is
the guy who ruined Ruben’s pretty mug for a few days. Zach is not the guy you
want dating your daughter, trust me on this one. I love Zach as a player, he’s
just a man out there, but the guy still struggles on the pick and roll, still
gets going on officials and still favors his left hand and when you are number
one in the scouting reports instead of number 10, defenders remember that.
Zach still has work to do to become a star power forward in the NBA, but he’s
coming along. The Blazers are committed to his talent, but is he still a
back-up or ready for prime time?

Dream outlook: Zach blossoms. He goes to the NBA summer league and works on 2
things: 1) playing defense and 2) going to his right. Zach needs to hit the
yoga class or pilates or something as well. Try Yoga in the Pearl. Oh and
dream outlook, Zach stays in Portland and out of trouble rather than Chicago
or Gary.

Realistic outlook: Zach gets busted for underage drinking during the offseason,
fans still love him and call for Rasheed’s head. Zach skips the NBA summer
league, which he did not want to attend last year as beneath his skills, and
comes back ready to get 20 and 10, but give up 20 and 10.

Worst case outlook: Zach feels like he’s made it and does nothing over the o
ffseason. He starts to become Oliver Miller and we know where that is going.

Qyntel Woods

Qyntel came to the Blazers as a kid who does not know basketball and one of
my favorite things this offseason will be to watch his progress in the summer
league. The Blazers are at a really critical juncture with Qyntel as the team
needs a lanky small forward who can shoot. Qyntel has NBA skills, he could
play like Darius Miles is right now or some of the other players in the NBA,
but bigger, smarter and tougher guys like Richard Jefferson would just punk
Qyntel. Qyntel’s biggest weakness is he still plays like he’s at the
playground. He does not know the defensive schemes, he gets open, but still
does not space well and his athletic ability is what wows you, but the coaches
cringe as he misses the defensive call, mostly because he does not know it.
The Blazers really need to look for a small forward who can shoot and defend
as a one year stop-gap. That player may end up being Scottie Pippen, so he
can’t shoot. At least he’s a stop-gap.

Dream outlook: Qyntel really shines in the second year at the Summer League.
He learns the defense and plays smart team basketball. He emerges as a starter
for the Blazers at small forward.

Realistic outlook: Qyntel wows them at the summer league with his athletic
ability and statistics, but is still one more year away from making significant
contributions. He smokes marijuana a few times because after all he’s
addicted, the NBA prevents the Blazers from doing anything about it, but the
media and fans hate the Blazers for it.

Worst-Case outlook: Qyntel spends more time with 50 Cent hanging around
on-stage than he does at the summer league. The party keeps going until 6 in
the morning, he still thinks a trading card is a valid drivers license and he
continues to be a guy with all kinds of potential.

Ruben Patterson

Was there any scary comment that told you about this year’s Blazers squad
than Ruben Patterson calmly explaining why he did not retaliate against Zach?
Not because they are a team, not because fighting is wrong, but because it was
against his probation. Big ups for understanding the meaning of probation, but
big concern for the Blazers if Zach travels to Cleveland this offseason. I
mean Ruben breaks jaws over a scratch on the car, what about a broken eye
socket? There is literally no chance that Zach and Ruben can coexist without
a serious peace treaty and probably some cash going from Zach to Ruben as an
apology/trust fund. The Blazers will reluctantly look to ship out Ruben
Patterson the ballplayer as he is energetic, versatile and plays with nothing
but energy, but the team cannot live with both and Ruben is the guy with the
criminal record (most recent) and the lesser talent.

Dream outlook: The Blazers are able to move Ruben and get some valuable bench
help in return, preferably a shooter. The Blazers will look at moving Ruben as
part of a package to Milwaukee, where George Karl would love to have Ruben
return. Look for a Michael Redd or Tim Thomas for Ruben Patterson trade to be
discussed, with particulars to make it even out.

Realistic Outlook: The Blazers find that Austin Croshere or Christian
Laettner are the only players that Ruben fetches in a trade due to his past
indiscretion. On the positive side, Sabonis finally has someone to hang out
with.

Worst Case Outlook: Ruben ends up finding Zach before the Blazers can trade
him and with the Sprewell punishment, Ruben is for the year.

BonzI Wells

The pride of Muncie, Indiana continues to put up tantalizing numbers and do
some just absolutely absurd things. Spitting on Danny Ferry? I’m certain that
Bonzi is not the first guy who wanted to hack one out on Ferry (See the entire
Clippers organization), but come on Bonzi, do you really have nothing better
to do? The Blazers learned this year that the great experiment of Derek
Anderson at shooting guard and Bonzi Wells at small forward works on occasion,
but that Bonzi is just so much more effective when playing at the 2 with a
longer shooter at the 3 that one of them needs to move on. Bonzi’s ability
in the playoffs with his 40 point outburst was not something that most NBA
players can do. He was absolutely scoring at will. Just at will I really
cannot say I have enjoyed a Blazers performance so well since the Clyde 51
(something like that game). Quite amazing. I thought Bonzi would really come
out after that game, but right back into his little unfocused world and
really a lot of nothing the rest of the series.

Bonzi, like the rest of Portland, has a regression statistically this year.
The Muncie man managed 15.2 points, down from almost 17 in 2001-02, but did
increase his assists to 3.3 per game and his steals to 1.64. His shooting
percentage fell to 44% as he had more jumps shots, not entirely his fault as
teams packed him into zones frequently. Bonzi managed 5.3 rebounds, also down
from the almost 6 per game the year before. What becomes clear? Bonzi is more
statistically effective as a 2 guard.

Dream outlook: Trade Bonzi Wells for a small forward who can shoot and move
the ball. I think Jalen Rose would be a really nice target. Bonzi and Ruben
for Jalen? Could be something that would make the Blazers really strong.

Realistic Outlook: Bonzi also remains a member of the Blazers. The market is
difficult for strong shooting guards. Teams are not looking to give up bigs for
players like Bonzi and the small forwards available are guys like Darius Miles
with loads of athletic talent, but not a great outside shot.

Worst Case Outlook: Bonzi continues to regress and fall back in his game.
Lapses of concentration continue, he remains troubled by memories of the
spittle on Danny Ferry and the trauma it causes. Kind of a “Nooooooooooo”
flashback like in Starship Troopers.

Next week we will focus on the backcourt and coaches and consider what is the
outlook for each. Without a GM and pre-lottery we can only speculate on moves
as most activity right now by agent is focused on the draft. Things become much
clearer and much more alive after the lottery so tune in next week when we will
know who gets LeBron, Darko and Carmelo and then we can project the rest of
the draft as well as start to hear real chatter about possible moves that will
happen on draft night.