Wainwright is one of the best right-handed pitching prospects in
baseball. Tall and lanky at 6-6, 190, he was a first-round pick
in 2000, out of high school in Georgia. He posted an outstanding
184/48 K/BB ratio in 164 innings last year for Class A Macon. His
numbers this season for Class A Myrtle Beach are also impressive:
2.65 ERA, 145/57 K/BB ratio in 143 innings, just 118 hits allowed.
Only six homers surrendered.
Wainwright currently works at 90-93 mph. He throws strikes with his
curveball and changeup, and demonstrates an advanced feel for the
finer points of the game. He's very polished for a 21-year-old,
yet he still has a chance to increase his velocity as he fills
out his body. Statistically, his strong K/BB marks auger well for his future.
He'll be in Double-A next year, and could conceivably see Atlanta
late in '03. A more conservative approach would have him at Double-A
in '03 and Triple-A in '04, setting him up for a rotation spot in '05.
But the Braves have been known to fall in love with certain pitchers
and push them quickly. The only negative I see for Wainwright is his
workload, which has been pretty heavy for such a youngster. He could
be an ace if his velocity picks up a bit more; we'll be able to get
a better read on that at this time next year.
談Terry Hodges
I wrote about Hodges in the July 27th mailbag. You can find the com
plete comment by clicking here. I wrote that, although he was having
a fine season for Triple-A Richmond, that his low strikeout rate and
lack of a dominant fastball implied that he would not "take the major
leagues by storm."
I don't see any reason to change that assessment.
Hodges is 24 years old, and has five major-league innings to his credit.
At age 24, Glavine had 646 major-league innings under his belt. Maddux
had 911. The Aussie Rookie, Damian Moss, was in Triple-A last year at
age 24, recovering from arm trouble. Basically, I don't see how comparing
Hodges to any of those three pitchers tells us anything. None of the
three are comparable to Hodges. Maddux and Glavine were already
veterans at the same point, while Moss has an injury history that
Hodges does not have.
I would also be remiss if I did not point out that Maddux knew how
to pitch long before he became a member of the Braves.
Hodges finished 15-9 with a 3.19 ERA in 28 starts for Richmond. He
posted a 116/56 K/BB ratio in 172 innings. The walk rate is nice and
low, but his strikeout rate is too weak for me to get excited about
him. He is a Grade C pitching prospect, someone with some skills
(control, command, durability), but also with some weaknesses
(not a hot fastball, low strikeout rate). I don't see any other
way to read the statistical data and scouting reports. Hodges could
be a useful pitcher, a Cory Lidle or Rick Reed type, but he could
also get stuck in Triple-A for the next 10 years.
這一篇是談Jeff Francouer
The Braves love tools players, and they love players from the Deep
South, Georgia especially. They scored on all counts with Francouer,
drafting him in the first round this year out of high school in Lilburn,
Georgia. He's a terrific athlete. They had to buy him away from a
Clemson scholarship, but they managed to do so, and his initial
performance in the Appy League was very good, as you point out.
Francouer was alleged to be somewhat raw by many experts, but he
adjusted to pro ball very quickly, and the Braves think he'll move
up fast. They compare him to a young Dale Murphy, due to his
power/speed combination.
The biggest hole in Francouer's stat line at Danville were his walk
and strikeout rates. He drew 15 free passes in 162 plate appearances,
while fanning 34 times. Those are not awful numbers by any means, but
they aren't great, either, and a sign that he may need some adjustment
time at higher levels. Normally I wouldn't worry about it too much, but
Atlanta does not have a good track record over the last few years in
helping similar prospects develop their hitting skills. I think Francouer
is an excellent prospect, but I want to see what he does in full-season
ball before projecting quick advancement. He is worth an investment in
a deep fantasy league with a big farm system structure, but don't expect
a quick payoff.
--
Chipper Jones
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
99 157 561 116 181 41 1 45 110 126 94 25 3 .427 .633 .319
Most valuable Player
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◆ From: 140.116.109.1
※ 編輯: grant44 來自: 140.116.109.1 (01/11 20:54)