[John Sickels]ATL 2015 Top 20 Prospects

[Roawen (嘴砲型的效率)]

1.全美倒數的農場 不意外  但這也是Wren走人的原因之一嗎XD
2.對Sims評價頗低 竟然只有工作馬的等級 認為他速球外其他球種都還沒長出來..

1) Jose Peraza, INF, Grade B+: Age 20, slick defender took step forward
offensively with .339/.364/.441 campaign in High-A/Double-A, with 60 steals.
There are still questions about his power and his walk rate is quite low, but
the complete package is worth buying into given youth, athleticism, and
consistent improvement.

2) Lucas Sims, RHP, Grade B+: Age 20, struggled in first half in High-A but
finished strong, 4.19 ERA with 107/57 K/BB in 157 innings, 146 hits. Still
projects as rotation workhorse with fastball up to mid-90s, secondaries still
under development but promising.

3) Christian Bethancourt, C, Grade B-: Age 23, his .248/.274/.274 line in the
majors is a fair representation of his ability in the batting average/OBP
departments and he will show more SLG in time. Great throwing arm, still
prone to mistakes, overaggressive approach cuts into his hitting. If he makes
some adjustments, think Miguel Olivo.

4) Ozhaino Albies, SS, Grade B-: Age 17, speedy contact hitter with
impressive defensive projection, athletic, already a polished hitter for his
age, hit .356/.429/.452 in the Appy League. Needs to get stronger and prove
himself in full-season ball but stock on the rise, could be at the top of
this list next year.

5) Braxton Davidson, OF-1B, Grade B-: 2014 first-round pick, age 18, hit zero
homers in first 50 pro games although scouts see lots of power in the bat.
Already draws walks, Nick Swisher-like potential.

6) Kyle Kubitza, 3B, Grade B-: Age 24, hit .295/.405/.470 in Double-A, nice
swing from the left side, draws walks, strikes out a lot, high OBP type, not
as much home run power as you’d expect given size/strength but not
punchless. Has made progress on defense, not a gold glove but will field well
enough to play regularly if the bat produces as expected.

7) Jason Hursh, RHP, Grade B-: Age 23, 3.58 ERA with 84/43 K/BB in 148
innings in Double-A, 1.65 GO/AO. I may like him more than I should due to
memories of seeing him pitch college ball, but his sinker is impressive and I
think the secondaries have more potential than the current low strikeout rate
implies. Workhorse type or possibly a multi-inning reliever.

8) Alec Grosser, RHP, Grade C+ : SLEEPER ALERT, age 19, 3.68 ERA with 63/22
K/BB in 64 innings in Appy League. Braves fans are well aware of him and he’
s starting to get more press nationally, so not a sleeper for much longer.
Needs to make full-season transition but low-90s fastball, slider, and
changeup project well. Another possible mid-rotation guy.

9) Shae Simmons, RHP, Grade C+: Age 24, impressive in the majors last year
with 2.91 ERA 23/11 K/BB in 22 innings. Not a fluke, but always difficult to
know where to rank relief prospects and there’s injury risk with this one,
shoulder injury that ended season early. If healthy I like his chances. Nice
late-round college find (22nd round, Southeast Missouri State, 2012).

10) Cody Martin, RHP, Grade C+: Age 25, 3.52 ERA with 142/56 K/BB in 156
innings in Triple-A. Not a high upside guy but knows how to pitch, throws
strikes, eats innings, back-end starter or relief option who is ready for a
trial.

11) Mauricio Cabrera, RHP, Grade C+: Age 21, missed most of season with
forearm injury and was ineffective in High-A due to command troubles when he
did pitch. Throws very hard, up to 98 if not higher, but struggles with
mechanics and control of secondary pitches. High-end closer if it all comes
together or a number three starter, but big risk too. Higher ceiling than
Martin.

12) Chasen Shreve, LHP, Grade C+: Age 24, as with Simmons his major league
success seems legitimate to me but ranking middle relief types on these lists
is problematic, especially when they could end up as LOOGYs. Unusually large
increase in his strikeout rate tracked reports of improved velocity and
sharper breaking stuff.

13) Williams Perez, RHP, Grade C+: Age 23, doesn’t get as much attention as
other Braves prospects but out-pitches most of them with sinker/change-up
combination, posted 2.91 ERA with 94/39 K/BB in 133 innings in Double-A. 6-1,
230 body weighs against him with observers but the stuff is decent and he
uses it well.

14) J.R. Graham, RHP, Grade C+: Age 24, would rank as high as six or seven on
this list if healthy. Horrific second half (8.20 ERA) and reports of
declining stuff in wake of 2013 shoulder injury put status in doubt. Did not
pitch better after moving to bullpen.

15) Johan Camargo, SS, Grade C+: Would rank as high as seven if you go by
tools and upside alone, age 20, from Panama, hit .266/.313/.326 in A-ball.
All projection and little production at this point, could develop into a
regular, or a bench guy, or nothing at all.

16) Kyle Wren, OF, Grade C+: Age 23, hit .290/.350/365 with 46 steals between
High-A and Double-A. Very fast, no power, decent on-base skills, can scoot in
center, classic fifth outfielder profile although some of these guys have
been playing more regularly as teams look for any defensive edge. That trend
could benefit someone like Wren.

17) Max Povse, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline C. Age 21, third round pick from
UNC-Greensboro, very tall at 6-8, rough secondaries were troublesome in
college but he made some progress in the Appy League, 3.42 ERA with 37/11
K/BB in 47 innings.

18) Garrett Fulenchek, RHP, Grade C: Borderline C+. HIGH CEILING ALERT. Would
rank higher on pure ability (Baseball Prospectus slots him aggressively at
fifth in the system, which may look like a great call four years from now),
age 18, struggled with consistency in rookie ball but second round pick could
become a three-pitch starting force if it all comes together. A year behind
Grosser but could be on similar trajectory.

19) Victor Reyes, OF, Grade C: Age 20, hit .342 in rookie ball in 2013 but
just .259/.309/.298 in Low-A in ’14, zero homers. Looks good in uniform,
nice swing, overall tools are there but no power yet, defense is ahead of
hitting at this point.

20) Daniel Castro, INF, Grade C: Age 21, hit .286/.312/.398 in
Double-A/Triple-A. From Mexico, held his own at a young age, good defensive
versatility. You could put many of the "other" Grade C guys in this slot but
Castro seems to me like a guy who could sneak up on us.

OTHER GRADE C PROSPECTS: John Cornely, RHP; Todd Cunningham, OF; Chris Diaz,
LHP; Jordan Edgerton, 3B; Sean Godfrey, OF; Phil Gosselin, INF; Ryne Harper,
RHP; Nate Hyatt, RHP; Juan Jaime, RHP; Kyle Kinman, LHP; Connor Lien, OF;
Dilmer Mejia, LHP; Aaron Northcraft, RHP; Wes Parsons, RHP; Elmer Reyes, INF;
Greg Ross, RHP; Carlos Salazar, RHP; Fernelys Sanchez, OF; Chad Sobotka, RHP;
Ian Thomas, LHP.


It is not secret that the Braves farm system has declined, a decline which
recently helped cost GM Frank Wren his job.

The organization has some strengths: there remains a nice group of
interesting arms, beginning with Lucas Sims, and the scouting staff has done
a good job finding useful arms in later round of the draft as well as
plucking pitchers out of independent ball. Simmons and Shreve were terrific
late-round finds and there are plenty of bullpen options to look at including
hard-throwing Juan Jaime and lefty Ian Thomas. They’ve also found some
middle infield talents and have found some bargains in Latin America, with
Peraza and Albies the best two current examples.

The big weakness here is obvious: bats. There aren’t many and most of the
interesting position guys are defense-oriented players. Kubitza could be an
exception and Braxton Davidson was one of the more exciting bats in the ’14
high school class, but more depth is obviously needed. If you want future
utility infielders there are many candidates.

The chain of causation for such problems is difficult for an outsider to
parse. Remember that this is the same organization that developed Freddie
Freeman and (more impressively from a sleeper perspective) Evan Gattis, so I
wouldn’t conclude that they simply can’t find hitters. Bargain-hunting in
the draft has been an issue: it seems to work with pitchers but less so with
hitters (Gattis excepted) in the modern context. It will be interesting to
see if the change in leadership opens up the purse strings or leads to a
change in philosophy.

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推 bravefan    : 前幾年產出不錯造成現在的農場貧瘠?
→ Roawen      : JS是傳統數據派的 他要寫這麼多人 通常讀者也是看看
→ Roawen      : 就好 最近釋出的還有BP的Top 10  寫的內容好多了
推 cj910       : 打者真的很貧弱 希望交易外野雙J來填補一下
→ opqasd      : JS應該是說他會比較重視tool有沒有轉換成場上的成績
→ opqasd      : tool真的很好的就算成績還沒出來他也是會評高分
→ opqasd      : 勇士這些人是有還不錯的tool, 比如說Sims跟Hursh的
→ opqasd      : 速球, 但是變化球不穩定, 所以三振一直出不來
→ opqasd      : 速球就大概是高於平均, 變化球有很大進步空間跟可能
→ opqasd      : 控球普普通通, 大概就是只能拿這種排名
→ opqasd      : 倒是Sims我一點也不覺得以他的控球在勇士可以當工作
→ opqasd      : 馬, 希望他的變化球可以練出來, 拿多一點三振
→ opqasd      : 投個6局左右就差不多了...最好最好應該是Hanson型
→ opqasd      : 不過這樣他的變化球要變得很強才行XD
→ opqasd      : 我是覺得他評的算是中肯, 這幾隻的確是有上大聯盟
→ opqasd      : 能力, 也有天分, 但是天份目前還沒轉化成成績
→ opqasd      : 如果能有個breakout的球季, 前七名都算是有機會
→ opqasd      : 評價大幅上升的prospect
→ opqasd      : 後面的幾個RP跟工具人沒啥好講的, 還有幾隻就是有傷
→ opqasd      : 或是還很小
→ gfn423      : KyleWren被送去酒鬼了，換來ZachQuintana,斧頭幫正
→ gfn423      : 式告別Wren家族...
推 bagayu      : J.R. Graham GG了嗎?...前兩年不是還前幾名?...@@"
→ Roawen      : 丁尺傷歸後 今年2A成績差強人意 大概轉RP了
推 opqasd      : Graham傷後據說球速還在, 但是投球姿勢跑掉了
→ opqasd      : 控球非常的糟糕, 有一陣子暴投亂飛很多, 變化球也
→ opqasd      : 都不出來
推 EvanGattis  : TLS被交易掉啦@@
推 qikl        : 下一個可能就是樓上的Gattis
推 EvanGattis  : 我會好好練擋球的(淚
推 opqasd      : 扣掉擋球不說, Gattis的體型實在太大隻, 蹲長久不太
→ opqasd      : 可能, 再加上他生涯前兩季都不算很健康, 又快30了
→ opqasd      : 如果真的沒有要拼這兩季, 換一換是很好的選擇
→ opqasd      : 情感上非常難過, 熊仔打擊是真貨, 能打有cluth個性
→ opqasd      : 又好, 有DH給他說不定就是David Ortiz了
→ tucker      : 只能說白熊不太適合國聯球隊~只希望不要為換而換
推 cj910       : 說到擋球 Bethacourt接補能力很成熟 但是擋球也很爛
推 opqasd      : 也沒有到很爛啦，不好而已，年輕捕手很多都這樣。他
→ opqasd      : 有成為好防守捕手的天份，移動能力好，臂力好又準，
→ opqasd      : 擋球可以練。比較有問題的是打擊
推 cj910       : Bethancourt去年不是打的還不錯?? 雖然看起來也是
→ cj910       : 球來就打的type 比較好奇是他的長打 他的身材很好
→ cj910       : 不知道有沒有養出長打的可能性??
→ opqasd      : 你都寫完了啊XD 球來就打又沒有長打, 這樣還沒問題?
→ Roawen      : Kyle Wren還可能成為ML稱職的4號of   Zach Quintana
→ Roawen      : 除了年輕外 幾乎無任何較好的項目可言 這筆交易不知
→ Roawen      : 道在做什麼的
→ opqasd      : 銖九族
推 synchron    : 我也覺得Wren有機會成為不錯的腿哥，對面的新秀不
→ synchron    : 熟就不說
→ dahw        : 這筆交易感覺只是為了把Wren丟掉而丟掉 實在看不懂
→ Roawen      : 剛看Tomahawk 才發現Graham跟Martin都沒被放進40人
→ Roawen      : 名單 規則5被選走的機會超高的阿.. 再看一下作者狂
→ Roawen      : 酸腿弟Constanza為何可以佔一個位置  然後Peraza好
→ Roawen      : 像也還沒到要保護的時候... 這佈局 看不懂阿~
→ Roawen      : 作者真的講得沒錯阿 哪有保護Williams Perez跟Yean
→ Roawen      : Carlos Gil 反而放掉兩個接近ML的道理?
推 opqasd      : 大概想要交易掉吧, 至少Martin沒甚麼用