[外電] 鎖定NBA：封館對Kobe的得分會造成什麼影響？

[LABOYS (洛城浪子)]

NBA lockout: How will work stoppage affect Kobe Bryant's scoring?
鎖定NBA：封館對Kobe的得分會造成什麼影響？

原文網址：http://0rz.tw/XMWRN

With an indifferent expression, stony silence and a downplaying of each
milestone, Kobe Bryant tried hard to show that he wasn't preoccupied with
climbing the NBA's all-time scoring list.

冷漠的表情，寂靜的沉默，對於破紀錄的輕描淡寫，
Kobe Bryant努力想向人們說明他並沒有執著於自己在NBA歷史總得分榜上的排名。

But not many believed him, including Phil Jackson. When I asked the former
Lakers coach last season which player Bryant wants to pass on the scoring
list the most, Jackson replied without hesitation, "Michael Jordan." Bryant
argued that wasn't true and continued touting his sole motivation entails
trying to minimize the gap between Bill Russell's 11 NBA titles and his own
five. Bryant isn't lying when he says that's his main motivation, but it's
misleading to act indifferent about it when teammates, media and the general
public know he's driven to be the best player ever.

不過沒有很多人相信他的話，像禪師Phil Jackson就是其中之一。
上個賽季，我問這位前湖人總教練：Kobe最想超越歷史總得分榜上的哪名球員時，

禪師毫不猶豫的回答我："Michael Jordan"。

Kobe則解釋說自己的唯一的動力，
是努力減少自己的五枚總冠軍戒指和Bill Russell的十一枚之間的差距。

當Kobe向大家表示總冠軍是他的主要動力時，他並沒有說謊。
但是當隊友，媒體和觀眾都知道他正在踩著挑戰成為史上最優秀的球員這條路上時，
Kobe對於提高得分榜排名的冷漠，則是會讓周遭的人產生誤解的。

So as the NBA continues a work stoppage that has no end in sight, it's only
natural to wonder how much of a shortened season or even a lost season would
affect Bryant's scoring. He's sixth on the NBA's all-time scoring list with
27,868 points, trailing Shaquille O'Neal (28,596), Wilt Chamberlain (31,419),
Jordan (32,292), Karl Malone (36,928) and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (38,387). So
it's likely that next season, if there is one, Bryant will probably only pass
Shaq, a milestone I think is safe to presume means awful plenty to the Black
Mamba.

眼前NBA正處於一個似乎沒有盡頭的停擺狀態，
人們很自然的會好奇一個縮水或者根本就不會存在的賽季，
會對Kobe的總得分產生怎樣的影響。

現今Kobe在NBA總得分榜上以27868分排名第六。

在他之前的有：Shaquille O'Neal（28596pts），Wilt Chamberlain（31419pts），
Jordan（32292pts），Karl Malone（36928pts）及Kareem Abdul-Jabbar（38387pts）。

如果會有下個賽季，那麼Kobe大概只可能超越Shaq，
而這個里程碑對於黑曼巴來說，自然意味著很多，也值得玩味。

But as far as how a work stoppage would affect where Bryant ends up on the
all-time scoring list? There's too many variables that complicate the answer.

但是關於聯盟停擺將會怎麼樣影響Kobe在得分榜上的排名，
卻有太多未知因素使得答案變得撲朔迷離。

The first question involves how long he will actually play.

而最首要的問題就是：Kobe到底會打多久。

Bryant's signed for three more seasons for $83.5 million, but that doesn't
mean the 2013-2014 season would be his final season. Knowing Bryant's thirst
for championships, it's conceivable the Lakers could keep him, but no one can
predict what will happen because it will depend on how Bryant's physical
condition holds up. But given his current state and the fact that the Lakers
seem to indicate they're preparing for Andrew Bynum to be the future of the
franchise, let's just assume Bryant hangs up his laces then. That means
Bryant has at least two full seasons and however long the 2011-2012 campaign
lasts to score 10,520 points, the amountneeded to surpass Abdul-Jabbar.

Kobe的合約還有三個賽季共計8350萬，
但是這並不意味著2013-2014賽季將會是Kobe的最後一個賽季。

基於到Kobe對於冠軍的渴望，湖人可能會續約他。
但是沒有人能預測會發生什麼，一切都取決於到那時候時Kobe的身體狀況。

考慮到Kobe現在的狀態，以及湖人似乎暗示Andrew Bynum將會成為湖人的未來的事實，
讓我們假設Kobe屆時將會退休吧。

這也就意味著，
Kobe至少還有兩個完整的賽季和未知的2011-12賽季，去超越他和賈霸相差的10520分。

Should next season go off without a hitch and the Lakers are able to host the
Oklahoma City Thunder Nov. 1 in their season opener, Bryant would need to
average 42.76 points through 246 regular-season games in those seasons to
reach him. For clarity purposes, say the 2011-2012 season is shortened to
50-games like it was in the 1998-99 campaign. Bryant would then have to
average 49.16 points through 214 regular-season games in those seasons to
surpass Abdul-Jabbar. And if there's not a 2011-2012 season at all, that
means Bryant would have to average 64.15 points per game through 164 games.

如果下個賽季正常舉行，湖人能夠在11月1日主場和奧克拉荷馬雷霆打開幕戰，
Kobe需要在這三個賽季的246場季賽中平均得到42.76分才能趕上賈霸。

更精準的說，假設2011-12賽季像1998-99賽季一樣縮水為50場，
那麼Kobe則必須要在214場季賽中平均拿下49.16分來超越賈霸。

如果要是2011-12賽季根本就不存在，
那意味著Kobe在164場季賽中必須平均狂砍64.15分才能超越賈霸。

It isn't practical to think Bryant would reach those numbers since he didn't
average that much even in his prime. Let's go back to recent history and
assume Bryant maintains the 25.3 points he averaged last season. Then in
three full more seasons, Bryant would score 6,224 more points in 246 more
regular-season games, putting him in third place with 34,092 points. If
Bryant has only 50 games next season  followed by two more full seasons,
Bryant would score 5,414 points in 214 regular-season games, putting him
still in third place, with 33,282 points. And if Bryant only has two more
seasons because of a lost 2011-2012 campaign, Bryant would score 4,149 points
in 164 games, causing Bryant to settle for fourth place, with 32,017 points.

認為Kobe能夠做到前面提到的壯舉是非常不現實的，
即使在他最顛峰的時期Kobe也沒辦法拿下這麼多的分數。

讓我們回頭看看近幾年的歷史，並且假設Kobe維持著上個賽季的平均25.3分：

那麼在剩下的3個完整賽季，Kobe在246場季賽將得到6224分以34092pts排名第三。

如果Kobe下個賽季只有50場季賽加兩個完整賽季，
那麼Kobe將在214場季賽中得到5414分以33282pts，依然能衝到第三。

而如果2011-12賽季泡湯，只有兩個完整的賽季，
Kobe則會在164場季賽中得到4149分，以32017pts排名第四。

Before Bryant fans get bent out of shape that this projection doesn't put him
on the NBA's all-time leaderboard, just remember what he said in 2010 when
asked if he can surpass Abdul-Jabbar.

在湖迷因為上面的推測沒有把Kobe排在第一而震怒之前，
讓我們來回顧2010年，當Kobe被問到他是否能超越賈霸時Kobe所說的話：

"I don't know how long I'll play," Bryant said.

"我不知道自己將會打多久。" Kobe是這樣回答的。

It's surely conceivable that Bryant's expiring contract after the 2013-2014
season isn't also his retirement date. But as mentioned before, that will
largely hinge on how healthy and effective Bryant remains at that point.
Let's say Bryant plays beyond that point and he maintains the 25.3 points he
averaged last season. Bryant would eclipse Abdul-Jabbar's mark in 416 more
regular-season games with that scoring average. If there is no shortened
season, that means Bryant would have to play five more seasons before
retiring in 2016 when he's 36. If there's no season, Bryant would hang it up
in 2017 when he's 37. And if there is a shortened season to 50 games, that
record also wouldn't be broken until the middle of the 2016-2017 season after
playing in the NBA for 20 years.

當然，Kobe在2013-14賽季結束合約後並不一定就是他退休的時刻。
但就如前面所提到的，這些主要都取決於屆時Kobe是否保持健康，且維持他的效率。

假設Kobe合約到期後繼續打球，並且保持他上賽季的場均25.3分，
Kobe想要超越賈霸還需要打上416場季賽。

如果沒有縮水的賽季，
這就意味著Kobe還必須在2016（到時候Koeb 36歲）退休前續戰五個多的賽季。
如果11-12賽季泡湯，則需要推遲到2017年。

如果11-12賽季縮水成50場比賽，那直到Kobe的第20年職業生涯 -
也就是2016-17賽季的中間，賈霸的記錄才會被打破。

If your head is spinning, you'll only feel more of a headache knowing there's
more variables that complicate this measure.

如果現在你的頭已經暈了，那麼當你知道仍有許多未知因素使這個問題更複雜時，
你大概只會感到更加頭痛。

Bryant's regular-season averages last season of 25.3 points in 33.9 minutes
per game marked his lowest statistical output since the 2003-04 season, but
that output proved more efficient when you consider his point total in the
previous three seasons, including 2007-08 (28.3 points in 38.9 minutes),
2008-09 (26.8 points in 36.1 minutes) and 2009-10 (27 points in 38.8
minutes). But with a possibly prolonged offseason, will the extra amount of
rest cause him to feel more energetic, allowing him to play heavier minutes
and score at a more prolific rate?

Kobe去年平均33.9分鐘和25.3分的數據是自從2003-04賽季以來得分最低的。

但是當你考慮前三個賽季的統計：

2007-08賽季 (38.9分鐘，28.3分)、2008-09賽季 (36.1分鐘，26.8分)，
以及2009-10賽季 (38.8分鐘，27分)，則顯得上個賽季的他更有效率。

因為停擺的緣故，休賽季可能會延長，多出來的休息會不會使Kobe能量更加充沛，
上場時間增多並且更有效率的得分呢？

The Lakers are changing their offense from the triangle to a faster-paced
offense emphasizing a high-low set with Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol getting
touches off pick-and-rolls. Will Bryant still manage to find his sweet spots
like Mike Brown promised? Or will Bynum actually get his wish in assuming a
larger control of the offense?

湖人的進攻策略也由原來的三角戰術，
逐漸轉為更快速的，更強調Andrew Bynum和Pau Gasol進行高低位擋拆的進攻。

Kobe會像Mike Brown承諾的那樣，在嶄新的戰術體系中適得其所嗎？
而Bynum是否能會實現他擁有更多進攻出手權的願望？

How healthy can Bryant stay? The above calculations assume Bryant will play
in all 82 games the rest of his career, an unrealistic expectation
considering how uncertain his career will last and the possibility of injury.
Will this cause Bryant to facilitate more to ensure he stays sound? Or will
the time off give Bryant even more explosive offensive moves once he gets
back on the floor?Will the controversial procedure he had on his right knee
this offseason suddenly turn Bryant into a younger version of himself? Or
will it at best just cause a temporary delay in future problems or contribute
to everything that currently ails his right knee?

此外就是，Kobe能保養自己到什麼程度？

上面的計算都是建立在Kobe能夠在剩下的所有職業生涯比賽披掛上陣的前提下。

考慮到Kobe職業生涯的不確定性和傷病的可能，這個大前提可說是個不太現實的希冀。

封館將會使得Kobe保持健康更容易？
還是足夠的休息時間能讓Kobe在重回球場找回更加富有爆發力的進攻動作？
Kobe今夏在右膝做的那個富有爭議的手術會突然使Kobe重獲新生？
還是這個手術最多暫緩未來的問題，對Kobe右膝的疼痛只是治標、不能治本？

Lastly, how will Bryant's game evolve? There's was a four-season pattern in
which his scoring rate had dropped. It went from 2,832 points in the 2005-06
season to 2,430 in 2006-07, 2,323 in 2007-08, 2,201 in 2008-09, 1,970 in
2009-10 before jumping back up to 2,078 in 2010-11. HoopData shows that, with
his fractured right index finger, sprained right knee and sprained left ankle
two seasons ago, a greater percentage of Bryant's shots were blocked, he
finished with fewer and-ones and made fewer shots at the rim, dropping from
66% in the 2008-09 season to 58.6% during the 2009-10 season. That same
website shows that last season with a healthier and surgically repaired right
knee, a sprained left ankle and an arthritic right index finger, he made more
shots at the rim, had more and-ones, had equal amount of shots blocked,
proved more efficient from shots within 10-15 feet (49.7% in 2009-10 to 51.5%
in 2010-11, but proved less efficient from shots within 16-23 feet (38% in
2009-10 to 33% in 2010-11).

最後則是，Kobe的比賽內容還會怎樣改變？
有四個賽季之間，Kobe的得分是在減少的。

從2005-06賽季的2832pts到2006-07賽季的2430pts，再到2007-08賽季的2323pts，
接2008-09賽季的2201pts，2009-10賽季的1970pts，直到2010-11賽季回漲到2078pts。

HoopData( http://0rz.tw/YBfQg )顯示，
兩個賽季前的右手食指斷裂，扭傷的右膝和左腳腳踝，使Kobe投籃被賞火鍋的機率更大，
進算加罰的次數減少。籃下進攻的命中率也低了，
從2008-09賽季的66％跌至2009-10賽季的58.6％。

除此之外，上個賽季隨著恢復健康和手術修復過的右膝，左腳踝扭傷和右手食指關節炎，
Kobe籃下的命中率回升，進算加罰的次數變多了，被蓋鍋數則不變。

在10-15呎的投籃更有效率（2009-10賽季的49.7％上升到2010-11賽季的51.5％)，
但是在16-23呎的投籃則退步（從2009-10賽季的38％跌至2010-11賽季的33％)。 

There's no mathematical equations that can solve these questions, but they're
intriguing to ponder nonetheless. There's only thing that's certain, Lakers
legend Jerry West, who predicted Bryant would at least get 30,000 points,
said one time that Bryant's not going to cede an inch with this effort even
if it causes him to kick and scream.

沒有任何公式能夠解決這些數字問題，但儘管如此，思考這些事情本身也是很有意思的。

但是有一件事是已經確定了，
湖人傳奇 - 曾預言Kobe得分會超過30000分的Jerry West曾說過：

Kobe如此努力，如此砥礪，就是因為他絕不想在這件事情上退讓半步。

"Health is an important issue and age," West said. "There's one opponent you
can't defeat and that's age. He will try that, by the way."

"健康與年齡是重要的議題，" West說。

"有一個你無法打敗的對手，那就是歲月。順帶一提，Kobe會試試。"


--Mark Medina--


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◆ From: 118.161.3.37
※ 編輯: LABOYS          來自: 118.161.3.37         (08/03 14:06)
推 kenny1104:歲月真是最大的敵人 想起之前連砍50分 就有股淡淡的哀傷
推 zealeliot:不期不待 留在場上讓球迷看看就心滿意足 超越大歐是要的
推 zBen:不求超越誰  但是希望可以破30000分
推 benson:推健康與年齡~~~
推 pujolsX:KB打法只要愈來愈養生~或許可以期待XD
推 loquito:SG養身 PG養身 SF跑不快跳不高  結論:封館真棒
推 Kreen:一點也不棒呀，這樣連別隊都沒得看了，而且我相信封館在久PG
→ Kreen:跟 SF 他們也不會有更好的狀態。Orz
推 benson:封館三年 這樣所有約都跑完 可以找狀態好又年輕的PG SF
推 flyintmtc:要找年輕的PG SF 乾脆連SG PF 一起找年輕的XD
※ 編輯: LABOYS          來自: 118.161.3.37         (08/03 19:01)
推 iittala:封館才能讓老大休息  永遠強力支持封館!!!
推 ray18363:挑個筆誤，第6頁KOEB
推 joveryant:多來點這樣的文章吧!!!
→ kok823:對wade和LBJ更慘 巔峰年剛好封館
推 Izon21:能超越喬丹就滿足了