Re: [轉錄][轉錄][今日] 洋基同意球員參賽 棒協： …

[cardfat ( )]

※ 引述《chunkae (.....)》之銘言：
: 我比你更早說出ERC這種東西，那為什麼我不願意去找ERC？
: 因為我根本就認為只拿一種數據
: 就來判定一個球員整體表現很搞笑的
: 就像你評估打者，你會只拿AVG就來扯嗎？
: AVG只能表現出他的安打能力，而且還不一定準呢，LD％過低搞不好是假貨
: ERC就純粹只能說明失分率而已 (我沒說ERC沒用)
: 想說你龜了那麼久可能會有整體表現的評估方式，害我特地來看
: 結果勒，又是一樣只能評估單方面的數據，加油好嗎？
: 而且ERC會比ERA高，你把持平的數字訂在3.5
: ERA你訂在3.0，你以為MLB是青棒聯盟嗎？還3.0勒
: 你去看看有幾個人在這數據之下
: 差距0.5也是你訂的，都給你爽就好了阿，我不能訂1喔
: 而且說會影響季賽這種話就只有你這種王迷在講
: 不就是想盡任何鳥話想證明王去投一球手會斷掉等等的
: 然後最愛把別的球員踩低低，甚至連會影響股票這種話都說出來
: 你剛好就是這種人，很愛找不知所謂的東西來呵護著王
: 不過昨天我在某篇文章說這句話時，當時二篇被M的股票文突然失蹤XD
: 既然我認為無法判斷是否影響，我何必花一堆時間去弄一個無意義的東西
: 就算弄出來，還不就只能自慰說有影響XD

真的蠻好笑的認為WBC有影響的隨便找也一堆
最好拿這一直攻擊王迷

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5054

Pitcher       IP       PECOTA     Actual     ER +/-
---------------------------------------------------
Relievers    323.7       3.82      4.14       +12
Starters     737.3       4.24      5.49       +104
Total        1061.0      4.10      5.08       +115

http://www.baseball-analysis.com/article.php?articleid=5060

I think there is a little bit of denial going on here. The starting pitchers
involved in the World Baseball Classic posted a 5.49 ERA over more than 735
collective innings in April. This is a very strong fact. That is a lot of
performance, equivalent to three or four full seasons worth of performance
for a durable starting pitcher. If you took a pitcher with a 4.24 ERA (the
weighted average PECOTA projection of the WBC starters) and had him throw 735
innings in a Diamond Mind Baseball simulation, the odds of his finishing with
an ERA of 5.49 or higher over that stretch would be many thousands to one
against. Even a simple binomial distribution tends to support this. The odds
of 19 of a group of 26 pitchers coming out on the high side of their weighted
mean PECOTA projection on the basis of randomness alone are about 200-to-1
against.


http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4188/is_20060813/ai_n16650069

WBC taking the blame for injuries, high ERAs



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◆ From: 210.64.169.238
推 t2007:wbc這時間辦真的很鳥...
推 t2007:不過kuo當年打完後，春訓威到不行..季末又轉sp...果然是奇才
→ chunkae:有人進步.有人退步.然後你只拿退步的來屁？
→ chunkae:那沒参加又退步的勒？你要怎麼解釋？
→ xyzyan:有人就挑自己想看的嘛 呵呵
→ cardfat:最好裡頭沒包含表現比較好的人  呵呵
→ chunkae:有好有壞.然後你拿變壞的說有影響?
在來一個好了

http://firetorre.blogspot.com/2006/04/wbc-and-pitching-part-2_24.html

# Of the 103 pitchers who qualify for the ERA title, 24 went to the WBC
# A pitcher who went to the WBC is 10% less likely to be doing well, and 10%
more likely to be performing poorly.
# Of the 42 pitchers who are struggling, 31% went to the WBC.
# If no pitchers went to the WBC, and trends existed at the same rate of
non-WBC pitchers, 37 pitchers would be struggling.
# If no pitchers went to the WBC, 27 pitchers would be exceeding
expectations, two more.
# Roughly the same amount of WBC and non-WBC pitchers are performing as
expected

※ 編輯: cardfat         來自: 210.64.169.238       (09/12 15:34)
→ chunkae:我可不可以說有参加反而更強?可以嗎?可以嗎?
→ sambacool:那也可以拿沒參加變濫的出來講 XD
→ chunkae:有参加的有爛有好.沒参加的也是有爛有好.
→ chunkae:老愛拿這講不就是借題發揮而已.跟說王會影響股票一樣
→ xyzyan:部分假設的 也拿出來說嘴 事前諸葛嗎  跟大預言家沒兩樣
→ cardfat:最好裡頭沒包含表現比較好的人 第一個link點了沒?
推 leddy:實在超級好笑, 你貼的下面那篇明明正反意見都有....科科科
→ leddy:WBC taking the blame for injuries, high ERAs 你是看了沒
推 leddy:"Injuries happen all the time," Martinez said
→ cardfat:不好意思才一屆我本來就不做評判
→ cardfat:"而且說會影響季賽這種話就只有你這種王迷在講"
推 k8543:2F舉錯例了吧,最後受傷了
推 lostinK:怎麼一堆酸民在王版呀...到底是要爭什麼..看了很煩
推 chun18:因為有少數王迷覺得除了王之外 國內球員都是垃圾的樣子
→ qk123:那可以寄信給"少數王迷"定孤支，八字沒一撇就搞成這樣
推 fgwilliam:還沒吵完阿...