推 ColbyRasmus:Kelly最後大概就是現在的Mitch Boggs吧 12/15 18:49
這一篇Joe Kelly的排名比JS的高好多@@
The St. Louis Cardinals
2010 MLB Record: 86-76 (2nd in the NL Central)
Minor League Power Ranking: 22rd (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List
The Prospects
1. Shelby Miller, RHP
Acquired: 2009 1st round (Texas HS)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A
Opening Day Age: 20
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.5
Notes: Miller, 20, has a good pitcher’s frame and he does a nice job of
staying tall in his delivery. He throws with a low three-quarter arm angle.
Miller occasionally has his front foot land a little too far toward third
base, which causes him to throw across his body as well as cause command
issues. A good athlete, he needs to work on consistency with his delivery. He
held his own in low-A ball in 2010 as a teenager by displaying good control
(2.85 BB/9). Miller posted a 2.42 FIP while missing a lot of bats (12.08
K/9). He produced an average number of grounders (46%). His repertoire
includes a fastball that touches 96-97 mph, a good curveball, and a changeup.
Miller certainly has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the organization
and he’ll open 2011 in high-A. The right-hander should spend the majority of
the season there but he’s talented enough – despite his age – to see a
late-season promotion to double-A. He should be ready for regular MLB action
in 2013.
2. Zack Cox, 3B
Acquired: 2010 1st round (University of Arkansas)
Pro Experience: 1 season
2010 MiLB Level: Rookie
Opening Day Age: 21
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0
Notes: The Cardinals organization gave Cox $2 million to sign as a
draft-eligible sophomore out of the University of Arkansas. He projects to be
a good hitter with a quick bat and solid line-drive power, which should
develop into 20-homer power over time. Cox rocks back and forth in his stance
but keeps his feet quiet. He’s quick to the ball and shows good hip
rotation. He does need to stay a little taller in his stance as he
occasionally leans out over the plate. Defensively, he shows quick hands but
could stand to improve his foot work and range at the hot corner. He has a
strong arm. There have been some questions raised about Cox’s ability to
stick at third base and some have suggested a move to second base. The
left-handed hitter could reach the Majors fairly quickly but it may take a
few years for his power to fully develop.
3. Joe Kelly, RHP
Acquired: 2009 3rd round (UC Riverside)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.0
Notes: I’m probably a little more aggressive in my ranking of Kelly than
other Top 10 lists, but the right-hander has an impressive mix of fastball
velocity (92-97 mph) and excellent ground-ball numbers (65% in 2010). Despite
some success (3.31 FIP), the 22-year-old was left in low-A ball all season
long. He split time between the rotation (18 starts) and the bullpen (8
relief appearances) and was a closer in college (He was drafted out of UC
Riverside, the same school that produced Marc Rzepczynski, who also has
above-average ground-ball rates). Kelly does struggle with his command and
control. He also doesn’t strike out as many batters as you would expect
(8.01 K/9) given his velocity. He throws with a low three-quarter or sidearm
slot. The right-hander does throw a little across his body at times. Like
Miller, he lands with his foot a little too close to third base, which causes
extra movement on his pitches but hurts his control. Kelly also has a long
arm action and lacks deception, which could help explain the lower strikeout
numbers. It remains to be seen if Kelly will be a long-term reliever or
starter but I’m hoping the organization gives him a chance to start.
4. Carlos Matias, RHP
Acquired: 2010 non-drafted free agent (Dominican Republic)
Pro Experience: 1 season
2010 MiLB Level: DSL
Opening Day Age: 19
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0
Notes: Matias is a raw prospect but he was an exciting sign for the
organization that isn’t known for investing a lot of money into the Latin
market. The club gave him $1.5 million. The right-hander has a big-time
fastball that can touch the upper-90s with good movement. He also has a raw
curveball and changeup. Matias has good control for his age. He’s not a big
pitcher- just 6’0” but he has large hands and his frame has room to fill
out. He throws with a high three-quarter arm slot and has a loose frame and
fairly clean delivery, which should help his body hold up to his big-time
velocity. The 19-year-old pitched in the Dominican Summer League in 2010 and
over-matched his competition with a 1.79 FIP and strikeout rate of 11.90 K/9.
Opponents hit just .144 against him. Matias should open 2011 in low-A ball.
5. Tyrell Jenkins, RHP
Acquired: 2010 supplemental first round (Texas HS)
Pro Experience: 1 season
2010 MiLB Level: Rookie
Opening Day Age: 18
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.0
Notes: Jenkins was nabbed out of a Texas high school with a supplemental
first round pick in 2010. He has a tall, skinny, projectable frame. A good
athlete, especially while fielding his position, the right-hander utilizes a
high leg kick and his delivery has some effort in it. He throws a good
fastball that can touch the mid-90s. He also has a curveball and changeup,
both of which he’s learning to command. Jenkins currently throws his
breaking ball with a slightly higher arm slot than his fastball. After
signing, he pitched just three innings in rookie ball. He’ll likely move
slowly through the minors but his good fastball could help him dominate
hitters in the low minors, as long as he can command the pitch. The
organization hasn’t had the best drafts in recent years but I was a big fan
of their first three selections in 2010.
6. Seth Blair, RHP
Acquired: 2010 supplemental 1st round (Arizona State U)
Pro Experience: None
2010 MiLB Level: Did Not Play
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 3.5
Notes: Blair had a nice junior season of college, and the Cardinals
organization grabbed him with a supplemental first round pick. He was a
highly-touted prep pitcher, too, but signability caused him to slide deep
into the draft (He’s represented by Scott Boras). Blair throws with a low
three-quarter delivery and there is some effort to his actions. He also
utilizes a long stride. His fastball sits in the low-to-mid-90s but he
struggles to command it. Blair also has a curveball, changeup and occasional
slider/cutter. He didn’t pitch after signing, but he should open 2011 in
low- or high-A ball. He has the potential to develop into a solid No. 3
starter.
7. Lance Lynn, RHP
Acquired: 2008 supplemental 1st round (U Mississippi)
Pro Experience: 3 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AAA
Opening Day Age: 23
Estimated Peak WAR: 3.0
Notes: Lynn has the potential to develop into a durable No. 3 or 4 starter. He
’s a big, strong athlete, although his fastball has just average velocity in
the 88-92 mph range. It has excellent sink, in part due to the downward plane
that Lynn gets on his pitches. He throws with a low three-quarter arm angle.
His repertoire also includes a good slider, changeup and an occasional
curveball. Lynn spent all of 2010 in triple-A and he posted a 4.43 FIP with
164 hits allowed in 164.0, so he hardly dominated the competition. His
strikeout rate was also modest at 7.74 K/9. He’ll likely return to triple-A
for 2011 but Lynn should be ready to serve as an emergency injury fill-in at
the MLB level.
8. Eduardo Sanchez, RHP
Acquired: 2005 non-drafted free agent (Venezuela)
Pro Experience: 5 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 2.0
Notes: Sanchez projects as a high-leverage reliever who could eventually
serve as the Cardinals’ closer. The right-hander throws with a three-quarter
arm slot and displays impressive, easy velocity. His fastball sits in the
mid-90s and can hit the upper 90s. He commands the heater well but struggles
with the consistency of his slider, which could develop into a plus pitch.
Sanchez’ value is diminished somewhat by his small frame but there isn’t
much effort in his delivery, which should help him stay healthy. He’s
displayed solid ground-ball rates in his career and he split 2010 between
double-A and triple-A. He produced goods strikeout numbers in triple-A (10.33
K/9) but struggled with his control (4.00 BB/9) against advanced hitters. The
21-year-old prospect should be ready to make his MLB debut at some point in
2011.
9. Oscar Taveras, OF
Acquired: 2008 non-drafted free agent (Dominican Republic)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: Rookie
Opening Day Age: 18
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.0
Notes: The 18-year-old Taveras gives the organization another impressive
Latin prospect on the Top 10 list. He made his North American debut in 2010
and was ranked as the fourth-best player in the rookie Appalachian League by
Baseball America. Overall, he hit .327/.367/.531 in 211 at-bats and displayed
good power (.204 ISO). Taveras hits with a wide stance and needs to get his
front foot down quicker. His swing gets long at times but he shows good bat
speed. He also keeps his hands in a good position to help his avoid hitting
with an upper cut. There is still some loop to his swing though, which could
probably be eliminated by leveling out his shoulders and lowering his back
elbow. His frame still has room to fill out.
10. Jordan Swagerty, RHP
Acquired: 2010 2nd round (Arizona State U)
Pro Experience: None
2010 MiLB Level: Did Not Play
Opening Day Age: 21
Estimated Peak WAR: 1.5
Notes: Seth Blair’s teammate at Arizona State was also nabbed by the
Cardinals organization. Swagerty could be a fast-moving reliever. He has a
low-90s fastball that touches the mid-90s, as well as a plus curveball. He
throws with a short, quick arm action and a tight, compact delivery. He
utilizes a long stride as to finish off his max-effort delivery. Everything
about his delivery screams reliever, so Swagerty will likely remain in the
bullpen. He didn’t pitch after signing but should open the year in low- or
high-A ball and could reach double-A by the end of the season. He should
settle in at the MLB level as a set-up man or closer.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-10-prospects-the-st-louis-cardinals/
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