推 udkidd :好長@@....辛苦了 05/04 12:28
推 tsaiwaichen :翻譯推啊 05/04 13:01
推 cyjoe :數據會說話...但最重要的還是利用它們的人...Doc別躲 05/04 13:10
推 yuhuilu :大推~~ 05/05 00:57
http://0rz.tw/143YX
Hoop Data Dreams
By STEPHEN J. DUBNER and STEVEN D. LEVITT
After going dry for 86 seasons, the Boston Red Sox have won two World Series
in the past four years. This hot stretch began soon after the team hired Bill
James, the sport’s most accomplished statistician, as a senior baseball
operations adviser. Whether coincidence or not, this overlap was widely noted,
and it is now standard practice for baseball teams to hire a flock of statheads
and use their analyses to help make decisions on and off the field.
在86個球季沒拿冠軍之後，波士頓紅襪隊在四年內得了兩座世界冠軍。這段火熱時間自
球隊雇用了Bill James作為資深棒球營運顧問開始，而他是這個運動最有成就的數據專
家。不管是不是巧合，這段重複時期被廣為注意，現在棒球隊雇用一堆數據頭，使用他
們的分析以幫助場上和場下的決策變成標準做法。
This probably makes good sense for a sport like baseball, which is full of
discrete events that are easily measured. It is also understandable, however,
that there is less of an edge to be gained from statistical analysis now that
everyone is doing it.
這對棒球來說也許很有道理，因為它充斥了離散的事件，所以很容易衡量。然而，也可
容易理解，因為每個人都在這樣作，現在要從數據分析得到的優勢比較少了。
Basketball, meanwhile, might seem too hectic and woolly for such rigorous
dissection. It is far more collaborative than baseball and happens much faster,
with players shifting from offense one moment to defense the next. (Hockey and
football present their own challenges.) A lot of things happen on a basketball
court — picks, passes, defensive shifts — that aren’t routinely quantified.
This is not to suggest that basketball teams don’t think statistically. But
only recently have a few teams begun to hire a new breed of stathead to
scrutinize every conceivable variable.
同時間，籃球對於這種嚴肅的分析似乎是太慣常和模糊的。它比棒球更加需要合作，速
度更快，球員在這個瞬間進攻，下個時點就變成防守 (曲棍球和美式足球也有各自的挑
戰) 。太多事在籃球場上發生—掩護、傳球、防守技巧—沒辦法持續量化。這不代表籃
球隊不用數據思考。但是直到最近，才有一些球隊雇用了數據頭作為新血，想要檢驗每
個可以想像的變數。
The Boston Celtics, owned by several men with venture-capital backgrounds, have
for the past few years been one of the most data-driven teams in the N.B.A.
They have also just completed the biggest single-season turnaround in history,
entering the playoffs two weeks ago with a league-best 66 victories after
winning just 24 games last year.
波士頓塞爾提克隊有幾位有創投背景的老闆，在過去幾年變成 NBA裡最資料導向的球隊
之一。他們也剛剛完成了史上最大的勝場進步，從去年的24場進步到今年的66場，並在
兩週前打進了季後賽。
Coincidence? Probably, for the Celtics obtained two monstrously accomplished
players in the off-season, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. It didn’t take a
statistician to tell you that the Celtics would be a lot better this year than
last.
巧合嗎？有可能，對Celtics在休賽期得到兩個巨大成就的球員KG和Ray Allen來說。不
用一個數據專家就可以告訴你Celtics今年比去年好多少。
But the team also employs what the general manager, Danny Ainge, calls his
“secret weapon,” a 32-year-old named Mike Zarren, who seems to know every
data point about every N.B.A. player, past and present. Garnett calls him
Numbers, the Celtics Dancers call him Stats and Paul Pierce, the team’s
longtime standout, calls him M.I.T. even though Zarren never went there. He
did, however, lead a University of Chicago quiz-bowl team to four national
tournament victories and later graduated from Harvard Law. (Disclosure: Steven
Levitt taught Zarren while the latter was an economics undergrad at Chicago.)
He subsequently fell from the lofty realm of academia into his dream job, as
the Celtics’ stat savant.
但是球隊也雇用了一個”秘密武器”，這是GM Danny Ainge的說法，他是32歲的Mike
Zarren，他似乎知道每個NBA球員的每一種資料，不管是過去或是現在。Garnett叫他”
數字”，Celtics啦啦隊叫他”數據”，而本隊長期的資優生Paul Pierce叫他”M.I.T.”
，即便Zarren從來沒唸過那裡。然而，他的確帶領過一支芝加哥大學的機智問答隊，得
到四個全國巡迴賽勝利，稍後則從哈佛大學法學院畢業。(資訊揭露：Steven Levitt在
芝加哥大學教過Zarren，當時後者就讀該校經濟系大學部。) 他隨後從個高級的領域掉
到了他的夢想工作，作為Celtics的數據專家。
Zarren also happens to be the team’s associate counsel, although this would
be hard to believe if you came across him at a game, way up in the cheap seats,
wearing his green satin Celtics jacket and shouting himself hoarse: “He
pushed! He pushed! . . . You got ’em, K.G.!” To describe his Celtics fandom
as rabid would be a gross understatement. This is his third season on the
Celtics’ payroll — he worked two years without pay as a law student and while
clerking for a judge — but his family has had season tickets since 1974. He
began regularly attending games at age 5, and since moving back to Boston after
college, he has missed only five home games.
Zarren剛好也是球隊的助理顧問，但是你在比賽中看到他會很難相信，坐在高高的便宜
位子，穿著綠色的 Celtics夾克，嘶啞地大喊”他推人了！他推人了！把他們宰了，KG
！”要說他是瘋狂的Celtics球迷，還是太簡單地低估他了。這是他第三個球季在Celtics
支薪—之前他工作了兩年沒支薪，當時他是個作法官助理的法學院學生—但是他的家庭
從1974年就持有季票。他五歲就開始定期地看比賽，自從大學後搬回波士頓，他只錯過
五次主場比賽。
“Three of those,” he says, “were due to illness.”
”有三次是因為生病”他說。
Danny Ainge was a key player on the last Celtics team to win an N.B.A. title,
more than 20 years ago. He also played Major League Baseball for three summers,
with the Toronto Blue Jays. You might think that is why he embraces the
statistical approach to sport now commonly called “moneyball,” after the
title of Michael Lewis’s book, but in fact Ainge is not a true believer. “I
just think there’s a lot of to-do about nothing in some of that,” he says.
“I mean, I heard about on-base percentage in 1976 when I was a junior in high
school.”
Danny Ainge是上次Celtics得到冠軍的關鍵球員，那是在二十多年以前了。他也替多倫
多藍鳥隊打了三年的大聯盟。你也許會想這是他擁抱運動數據分析的原因，在棒球界通
常被叫做”錢球”，以Michael Lewis的書為名。但是其實Ainge不是個真誠的信徒。”
我只是認為有太多說是你該去作的事，但是其實沒什麼內容。”他說”我的意思是，我
大概在1976年就聽過上壘率了，那時我是個高二生。”
Ainge hired Zarren simply because he wants any advantage worth having, and
Zarren’s insights are “more information on every decision we make,” Ainge
says. “Mike is a much smarter guy than I am. I’m open to smarter people than
me. It still comes down to my instincts. I have to make the choice, no matter
what my scouts say, no matter what the models say. I don’t think it’s
realistic to think that a statistical model will ever be foolproof in
basketball because there are so many variables, but I do think it can help
us.”
Ainge雇用Zarren的原因是他想要任何值得擁有的優勢，而 Zarren的洞見在於”我們作
決定時提供更多資訊”Ainge 說。”他是個比我聰明很多的人。我對於比我聰明的人保
持開放心胸。這仍然是跟我的直覺有關。我必須要作選擇，不管我的球探怎麼說，不管
數據模型怎麼說。我認為想要用個數據模型，就可以永遠避免在籃球方面當個白痴是很
不切實際的。因為有太多變數，但是我仍然認為它可以幫助我們。”
There are two channels through which Zarren can help the Celtics. The first is
by assessing potential deals and draft picks, which means bouncing information
off of Ainge. The second channel is strategic advice, which means going to
Coach Doc Rivers, whom Ainge says is “skeptically receptive” to Zarren’s
insights. You sense that Zarren has gained credibility within the Celtics not
because the basketball people adore his regression analyses but because he
adores the sport. “Most geeks are not basketball guys,” Zarren says, “and
most basketball guys are not geeks. You have to be both to be successful in
this developing field.”
Zarren可以透過兩種管道幫助 Celtics。第一種是評估可能的交易和選秀對象，也就是
反應資訊給Ainge。第二種則是策略建議，也就是向Doc Rivers教練，Ainge說他對Zarren
的意見是” 容易接納，但是保持懷疑”。你可以感覺到Zarren在Celtics已經得到信賴
度，但不是因為籃球人熱愛他的迴歸分析，而是因為他本身就熱愛這項運動。”大部分
怪胎不是籃球人。”Zarren說”而大部分的籃球人不是怪胎。要在這個發展中的領域成
功，你兩者都要是。”
What’s the most efficient shot to take besides a layup? Easy, says Zarren: a
three-pointer from the corner. What’s one of the most misused, misinterpreted
statistics? “Turnovers are way more expensive than people think,” Zarren
says. That’s because most teams focus on the points a defense scores from the
turnover but don’t correctly value the offense’s opportunity cost — that is,
the points it might have scored had the turnover not occurred.
什麼是除了上籃最有效的投籃方式？很簡單，是角落的三分球，Zarren說。什麼是最常
被誤用、被曲解的數據？”失誤付出的代價比人們想的還要大。”Zarren說。這是因為
大多數的球隊專注於藉由對方失誤所得到的分數，而沒有正確地衡量進攻的機會成本—
也就是說，如果失誤沒有發生，你可能會得到的分數。
As for what the Celtics know about their own and opposing players — well, that
information is guarded like the crown jewels. Off the record and under duress,
Zarren did reveal some valuable information, but we judged credible his threat
to hunt us down and kill us if it were published. He was willing to admit that
Ray Allen’s worth goes far beyond his perimeter shooting, that Rajon Rondo’s
rebounding was an undervalued asset, that Leon Powe’s surprisingly strong play
was not so surprising to the Celtics and that, as transformative a player as
Garnett was known to be, he has generated a variety of offensive and defensive
pluses that even the Celtics didn’t anticipate.
至於 Celtics了解自己和對手球員多少—嗯，這項資訊被保護的像是皇冠上的珠寶般。
在聲明不列入紀錄和被脅迫的情況下，Zarren的確揭露了一些有價值的資訊，但是我們
相信他說要把我們滅口的威脅，還有如果把它寫出來，他就要殺了我們。他”承認”Ray
Allen的價值比他的外線跳投還要多很多，Rajon Rondo的籃板是個被低估的資產，Leon
Powe令人驚訝的好表現對 Celtics來說不是太驚訝，還有，KG被認為是多功能型球員，
他對進攻和防守帶來多大的提升，即便Celtics都沒有預期到。
Zarren is also responsible for the Celtics’ basketball-related technology and
uses a service that delivers video footage tagged with statistical information.
With just a few mouse clicks, he can call up every clip in which LeBron James
of the Cleveland Cavaliers has touched the ball at the top of the key and see
whether he went left or right, was double-teamed or not, passed or shot — and,
if the latter, whether he missed, scored or was fouled. So if the Celtics
dampen James’s scoring the next time they play a high-stakes game against the
Cavs, Zarren might be entitled to a smidgen of credit.
Zarren也負責 Celtics籃球有關的科技，使用一項將影像連結到數據資訊的設備。只要
點幾下滑鼠，他就可以叫出每個騎士隊的LeBron James在禁區底端拿到球的片段，看看
不論他是往左或往右走、被包夾與否、傳球或是投籃—還有，如果投籃，他是沒進、得
分、或是被犯規。所以如果下次Celtics想要在一場很重要的比賽中抑制James的得分，
Zarren也許值得一點點的肯定。
Still, there remains a significant universe of basketball statistics that are
simply not captured: each pass thrown and caught, each player’s position on
the floor at a given time, any number of angles and proximities and nuances.
Zarren lusts after such data and is quietly pushing for a technological
solution that would produce it. One possibility: embed the floor of each N.B.A.
arena with electronic sensors and have the players wear microchips in their
sneakers.
沒錯，還有多如宇宙般的籃球數據根本沒被摘錄下來：每個傳出去和被接到的傳球，任
何時間每個球員在場上的站位，各種的角度、接近程度、細微差別。Zarren追逐這些資
訊，安靜地推動一項可以產生這些資訊的科技。有一個可能性：在每個 NBA場館的地板
上加裝電子感應器，然後讓球員在球鞋裡裝微晶片。
The last few decades have been sad ones for the Celtics, marked by loss of life
(including Len Bias, their 1986 first-round draft pick) and losses on the
court. All that gloom will dissipate if they can manage to win their 17th
championship this season. Other teams will of course rush to mimic the
Celtics’ formula — beginning, presumably, by trying to acquire a player like
Kevin Garnett. But there are a lot more Mike Zarrens in the world than there
are Kevin Garnetts, and they also happen to come with a much lower price tag.
過去數十年對Celtics來說是悲傷的，以失去生命作為標記(包括Len Bias，他們1986年
的第一輪選秀) ，還有球場上的失敗。所有這些憂鬱的心情將被消散，如果這季他們能
得到隊史第17座冠軍。其他隊當然會模仿 Celtics的方程式—我們假設，會從得到一個
像KG般的球員開始。但是世界上還有比KG更多的像 Mike Zarren這種人，同時他們只要
一個便宜很多的價格標籤。
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