Re: What Is The Celtics' Salary Cap Situation?

[rainingdayz (小雨)]

※ 引述《solomon8355 (mon.)》之銘言：
不知那位高手可以幫我翻譯或是分柝這篇文章 3Q
        不敢當                ??


http://celtics.realgm.com/articles/367/20090202/what_is_the_celtics_salary_cap_situation/


我大概翻
因為最後一句話讓我點點點

What Is The Celtics' Salary Cap Situation?

超賽的薪資空間狀況怎樣呢?


大家都知道
2010年有很多大魚游入自由市場

超賽有辦法買到大魚又不超過薪資空間嗎?

There is an occasional theme on Celtics websites of pondering if and how they
could become players in the much-vaunted 2010 free agent market. Can the Cs
get below the salary cap sufficiently to make a play for a superstar?

There is a great deal of confusion about how the salary cap works and what
the rules are for determining what is included in a team’s salary total.

To help clarify matters I have done some research and consulted with experts
like Larry Coon, author of the unrivaled NBA Salary Cap FAQ. Here is my
report.



計畫A

放棄：雷槍+年輕人
簽下：Drew Gooden or Ron Artest or Ben Gordon or Lamar Odom or Chris Andersen
(複數年合約)

如此便不會放掉當前的未來性


I confess at the outset that the very idea that the Celtics could get far
enough below the salary cap to have sufficient capspace to sign a
maximum-salary free agent seemed absurd on its face. Just adding up the
contracts of the players under contract in July 2010 gets you close to the
salary cap as is. That doesn’t even include the possibility of re-signing
Ray Allen or any of the young players. And when one considers that Danny Ainge
’s first priority is to contend while his veteran team is still in its
prime, there would be great incentive to use the mid-level exception free
agent slot in the summer of 2009 to sign a quality veteran who could help the
team off the bench. A player like this, say a Drew Gooden or Ron Artest or
Ben Gordon or Lamar Odom or Chris Andersen, would require a multi-year deal
that would all but blow-up any chance of getting beneath the cap in 2010.

This would be Plan A. Play to win now, and do not sacrifice the present for
the future.


但是我們都知道

Ainge連 Posey 都不願意給四年合約
也不願放棄年輕人
(喔不來恩你聽到沒 給我努力一點)

bla bla bla

所以不可能(逼~)


But we know by Danny’s unwillingness to sign James Posey to a four-year deal
at the mid-level rate that he will not sacrifice the future for the present
either. He is always thinking two or three moves ahead. You have to think if
there is a path to get the Celtics a LeBron James or a Dwyane Wade in 2010,
Danny Ainge will move heaven and earth to find it.







計畫B

那再找一個方法不會危急到今年或是2009-10球季

作者說他參考了三個網站來估薪水


So let’s consider the plausibility of a Plan B. Let’s try to see if there
is a way for the Celtics to get beneath the cap in 2010 that does not
compromise the team’s ability to contend this year or in 2009-10. I am
relying on the salary information from three websites; I doubt it is precise
but after cross-checking I think it is close enough for our purposes.



作者提醒大家
有兩點薪資空間的觀念易誤會

首先
為了防止超賽先不簽自己的自由球員
借此暫時逃過薪資上限
進而可以去簽下很貴的他隊球員


所以 往往趨向於給自由球員比本來還高的薪水

Now we have to start with two often misunderstood rules about the salary cap.
First, and most important, a team’s unsigned free agents count against the
cap. This prevents teams from keeping its own free agents unsigned to get
beneath the cap, so it can sign an expensive player, and then go way over the
cap by signing its free agents. To give this provision muscle, the salary
amounts for unsigned free agents tend to be much higher than their last
salary.

例子：

吉祥物就是要漲價了

這讓超賽必須把他讓給別隊簽

或是更簡單地 直接"放棄"他(simply renounce him @@)


Brian Scalabrine, who earns $3.4 million in the last year of his contract in
2009-10, will count as a free agent against the Cs salary cap in 2010 for a
whopping $6.8 million. This forces teams seeking to clear capspace to either
sign their free agents, let other teams sign them, or simply renounce them to
get them off the books. If a team renounces a player, it cannot then sign
him, except (with a few exceptions irrelevant to the Cs situation) at a
minimum contract level.


第二個大家必須了解的觀念

不只聯盟算薪資總額超不超過的問題

其實這個錢也代表12個球員的薪水

所以 不到12個人的話
還是要繳出最便宜的薪水(the league rookie minimum)

Second, not only does the league determine a team’s salary total for cap
purposes by counting all players under contract and including unsigned free
agents. It also insists that there be 12 players accounted for, so if a team
has less than 12, the league adds in the additional salaries at the league
rookie minimum to get a team to a 12 player roster. The rookie minimum salary
will be around $500,000 in 2010-11.

So if a team had no players under contract and no free agents, the NBA would
show it with a salary level of $6 million.

Now let’s see where the Celtics stand salary-wise come the anticipated
summer of 2010.


接下來是一些加加減減
作者提出他覺得應該選擇誰
但是他也知道總管大人的習慣


Here are the firm contracts the Cs have for the 2010-11 season:

Kevin Garnett: $18.8m
Kendrick Perkins: $4.9m
Paul Pierce: $21.5m

That comes to: $45.2 million.

The Cs have options that year for Bill Walker and JR Giddens. Let’s assume
the Cs exercise those options for 2010-11.

J.R. Giddens: $1.1m
Bill Walker: $0.9m

That takes us to five players and a cap total of $47.2 million.

Then we have to deal with our two restricted free agents in the summer of
2009, Big Baby Davis and Leon Powe. If the Cs were not planning to contend in
09-10 it might be wise to let these guys go to create capspace. We are
planning to contend, so I imagine Danny will work to keep them. As restricted
free agents, Powe and Davis can solicit contracts from any team in the league
and then the Cs have a right to match them. Powe and Davis will not be
willing to settle for one-year deals, unless they are insane.

What are Powe and Davis worth? That is very hard to say, and their value this
season already has more gyrations than Oprah’s waist line. Looking at
players in a similar situation in the summer of 2008, I think Powe and Davis
are worth more than Sebastian Telfair and less than Ryan Gomes. So, for our
purposes, let’s say Danny signs them to three-year deals, and for 2010-11
they are each under contract at $3 million.

Leon Powe: $3m
Big Baby Davis: $3m

That takes us to seven players and $53.2 million.

Now there is the matter of Rajon Rondo. This summer, in 2009, the Cs and
Rondo could negotiate a long-term extension to kick in starting in 2010-11.
The Cs might be willing to do that because they could get Rondo for less than
he would get a year later if he continues to improve. Rondo might do it for
the security. If the Cs and Rondo decide to do so, we are back to Plan A,
because the team will not be able to get under the cap no matter what. Once
Rondo gets his next contract, he will be getting paid an eight-digit salary.

So for Plan B to work, Rondo and the Cs have to let him complete his fourth
season and then become a restricted free agent in 2010. An unsigned Rondo in
the summer of 2010 will count three-times his 2009-10 salary, or $6.3
million, for salary cap purposes.

Rajon Rondo: $6.3m

That takes us to eight players and $59.5 million. (Now, mind you, if the Cs
are able to sign a free agent in the summer of 2010, the immediate order of
business thereafter would be to sign the restricted free agent Rondo to a
long-term deal.)

Now that leaves six players that the Cs will have who are free agents in
2010: Gabe Pruitt, Patrick O’Bryant, Eddie House, Brian Scalabrine, Tony
Allen, and Ray Allen. Recall, as with Rondo, each of these players count
against the 2010-11 salary cap for the Celtics at a much higher rate than
their 09-10 salary. The “cap hold” figure against the cap for T. Allen,
Scalabrine and House are over $5 million each so they have to be renounced.
Let’s assume that the Cs decide that one of Gabe Pruitt and Patrick O’
Bryant show sufficient promise that the Cs do not renounce him. For our
purposes, let’s assume it is Gabe Pruitt. Therefore we assume Patrick O’
Bryant is renounced.

Gabe Pruitt: $1.6m

That takes us to nine players and $61.1 million.

And this means we have to renounce Ray Allen, too. He counts as a max
contract against the cap until he is resigned for less, signed by another
team, or renounced. Nice knowing you, Ray.

Then, finally, the Cs will have a first round pick in the 2010 draft. Unless
the Cs trade the pick for a future pick or renounce the pick – unlikely –
 it will count against the cap. For our purposes, let’s assume it is a low
pick and the cap hit will be $1.2 million.

No. 1 pick: $1.2m

So that takes us to a roster of ten players and a cap payroll of $62.3
million.

For the finishing touch, we have to add in two more rookie minimum contract
players to account for slots 11 and 12.

Minimum-salary player, roster spot #11: $0.5m
Minimum-salary player, roster spot #12: $0.5m

That takes us to a roster of 12 players (for cap purposes) and a payroll of
$63.3 million.

The Cap will be no more than $61 million in 2010-11, if even that high in the
midst of a depression. This seems to foreclose the idea of getting under the
cap if we wish to contend.

計畫B似乎是可行的!
但是...

But, to put the matter to rest once and for all, let’s see how far below the
cap the Celtics could get if Danny became obsessed with the idea, yet still
wanted to contend in 2009-10.

This is what he could do. (Remember, we can remove salaries, but, when we do,
we have to add in $0.5 million to account for a minimum salary roster spot.)

First, the Cs would have to sign a veteran big to a one-year MLE deal in
2009, say a Rasheed Wallace, and then let either Powe or Big Baby leave.
Assuming Wallace is renounced in 2010, we now have the cap total down to
$60.8 million.

Then, maybe go ahead and renounce Gabe Pruitt and trade the 2010 no. 1 pick
to someone for a future no. 1 pick, or whatever we can get down the road.
That gets the cap total down to $59 million.

Likewise, do not pick up the options in Bill Walker and J.R. Giddens. That
gets the salary cap total down to $58 million.

Then, the biggie. Paul Pierce is owed $21.5 million in 2010-11. But Pierce
also has the right to opt out of his contract. Have Pierce opt out and then
immediately sign a new four-year deal with the Cs starting at $10 million in
2010-11, with annual million dollar raises. So Paul sacrifices $21.5 million
in one season to get $46 million for four seasons. Would he do it? Possibly.
If Paul plays out the original deal, he will become an unrestricted free
agent approaching age 34 in 2011. Will there be teams willing to give him a
three-year deal then worth $25 million? Possibly, but possibly not. Paul
might just like the security and the chance to finish his career in Boston.
And the prospect of getting another star on the team.

So Paul does that deal and we are down to $46.5 million, for a 12-man roster.
We are still a good four million dollars away from the max contract salary
that Wade, James, Bosh, Yao and the other free agents will be eligible to
command, and that many teams will be in a position to provide. We have no
reason to think any superstar will forgo what would be around $25 million
over the course of a contract to play in Boston. Especially to join a team
consisting of four other veterans and seven minimum wage players. (The Cs
would lose their MLE and other exceptions in order to get under the cap and
sign a free agent.)




結論.....















There is no way Danny considers such an approach. It would be general manager
suicide.

總管大人絕對不可能
在2010再找來大明星
如果做了是主管的自殺行為




Let’s purge it from our considerations. The Celtics will not be under the
cap in 2010.

所以咧
請大家放棄這種想法吧
超賽絕對無法在2010控制自己的薪資總額的....(給他爆...)






不好意思
我打點心得~

從作者的選擇和他分析安吉的想法

皆可以看出
這支隊伍裡面各球員的重要性...


首先

PP不用說 靈魂人物
KG也是很重要

不過在考慮RA時都放在比較後面的地方...
這也滿實際的
但是自己滿喜歡雷槍的所以哭哭


另外下一個層級的

Perks House當做工具人想吧
Rondo是球隊的未來 可以給長約


再下一個層級的

就比較是交易的籌碼了
可以考慮換立刻有功能的ex Artest
或是換未來選秀


總之
我覺得這支球隊真的已經很了不起了
很珍惜這種組合(可惜沒去年的Posey Brown和自動變成教練的外星人)

超賽加油!
再衝一個冠軍吧~







很少po文
有問題請小力鞭
thx
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 122.53.83.214
推 littlexian  :如果晚上沒有強者翻的話 我來獻醜一下 我該睡了
→ littlexian  :現在凌晨兩點五十 囧
→ littlexian  :                     明天
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 61.229.186.104
※ 編輯: rainingdayz     來自: 61.229.186.104       (02/03 19:48)
推 nick13tw    :那年PP,RAY-GUN都到期,如果佛心來者都只領5M(誤)
→ nick13tw    :這樣剛好可以再簽一個LBJ..XD
推 fk920       :簽來打PG好像不錯耶0.0+ (大誤)
推 nogoodlaugh :與其要LBJ我比較想要魔獸
推 gohit       :以現在的狀況來看....也許阿泰來合式 @@
推 jerry213    :真希望三巨頭都在塞爾提克退休
推 gohit       :大家可以參考一下2119的文
→ gohit       :TO、大寶、POWE 都只約到09年 所以在09年時
→ gohit       :大寶、POWE勢必要選一個來簽 @@
→ gohit       :那麼TO再外加吉祥物就揮棄掉...這樣換來阿泰應該不錯
→ gohit       :這樣內線戰力就不算跌太多
→ gohit       :不過不管怎樣 都要優先考慮雷槍的續約
推 lygar       :不喜歡阿泰..不要來..
推 gohit       :還好吧 XD 不過我想應該沒人要 TO+吉祥物 換 阿泰吧
推 righthand   :超賽主要還是這兩三年 2012拓荒者會是西區老大？
推 HeavyBlue   :拓荒者難說  好球員要留得下來才會威
推 nick13tw    :拓荒者被Miles 9M幾乎算被玩完了
推 ILLwill     :要在大寶和阿炮擇一的話,我想選阿炮,大寶的身高有限
→ ILLwill     :感覺很尷尬,雖然我滿喜歡這個球員
→ ILLwill     :阿炮至少比較有速度,可以頂頂3,4號
→ rainingdayz :之前有文章提到 大寶打球很聰明