[外電] How much is Big Baby Worth to You?

[rayensighner (瓶子不是這樣看低)]

PS. 這篇算是作者的討論吧XD  其實沒啥"新"聞


新聞出處(必填):
http://celticshub.com/2009/07/14/how-much-is-big-baby-worth-to-you/


作者:Brian Robb

With a couple seemingly minor moves in the NBA yesterday, the market for big
men and especially Glen Davis just got a heck of a lot more interesting. Let’
s break down the moves and see how they could potentially drive the price tag
for Big Baby up which would go along with decreasing the likelihood the
Celtics will be able to retain his services by matching a high priced offer.

有關近來的小道消息，讓大家對於big man的目光集中在大寶貝上。來看看近來市場上

有啥動作以及來看看有關對於大寶他們準備怎麼出價。


Move #1: Detroit trades SG Aaron Afflalo, PF Walter Sharpe and cash to Denver
for a future 2nd round pick.

消息#1.  活塞把Afflalo+Sharpe+錢去換金塊的2輪選秀權。 

The deal was made here for a couple simple reasons as far as the Pistons were
concerned. First off with the signing of Ben Gordon, it created a crowded
backcourt situation for the team with Richard Hamilton all ready signed long
term. That reality created no major minutes left for Afflalo who was shipped
out of town to help Denver replace Dhantay Jones who fled to Indiana for a 4
year 11 million dollar deal.


活塞會做這舉動有幾個簡單的原因：

1.)因為簽了狗蛋，而原本又有RIP，所以Afflalo自然會連上場時間都沒有。而Afflalo

   去了丹佛也正好填補Dhantay Jones轉隊後留下的空缺。

The second and more important reason the deal was made as far as the Celtics
are concerned, was the additional cap space that was created for the Pistons
with the trade. Afflalo and Sharpe’s salary combine to make up 1.8 million,
and by not dealing for a player in return, that was the amount Joe Dumars was
able to reduce the team’s number under the salary cap, which now stands at
4.9 million according to Dan Feldman over at PistonPowered.com.

2.)也是比較重要的一個原因，當然目標是大寶貝囉。Afflalo+Sharpe的錢大概總和1.8M

，而且交易完後並沒有拿到球員，表示有多的空間以及薪資來爭取大寶貝的加入。

而依照http://tinyurl.com/kqtpfm的資料參考知道，目前活塞隊的薪資距離上限還有

$4,906,077 也就是差不多5M的薪資可用。

By dealing Sharpe, this deal also left Detroit extremely thin on the front
line, leaving it with only three players who could be considered as power
forward/centers in Charlie Villanueva, Jason Maxiell, and Kwame Brown. Thus
it seems Detroit will be going after one, if not two big man free agents out
there and it has been widely reported that one of those players will be Glen
Davis.

不過也因為把Sharpe丟掉了，現在的活塞禁區是非常小的。只剩下無眉人、Maxiel以及

奶油手。所以活塞看起來至少還要找一個，而看起來那個人就是我們的大寶貝。

From the Celtics perspective, it can’t be encouraging for them to see
Detroit stockpiling cap space, increasing the odds that they will make an
offer to Davis that the C’s will be unwilling to match. The Celtics have
been smart waiting it out with Big Baby thus far, trying to let a seemingly
down market drive down Baby’s price and suitors as many teams (San Antonio,
Orlando, Memphis) looked elsewhere to fill their big man needs.

對於超塞來說，活塞清空間是不樂觀的。因為活塞很可能會出一個超塞並不想跟的價錢。

超塞目前的策略就是等待，試著讓市場把大寶貝的價格給降低以及隨著時間降低追求大

寶貝的追求者的個數。

According to Gary Tanguay, Danny Ainge has placed a dollar value on Big Baby’
s worth. Last year we witnessed firsthand Danny’s reluctance to overpay for
a role player in the form of James Posey. In my estimation, the signing of
Rasheed Wallace made the need for the Celtics to bring back Big Baby a bit
less pressing since Rasheed will be able to log major minutes at the 4 and 5
spots. If they have to overpay Davis (5 million over several years) to keep
him here, Wallace in town made the chances of that happening a bit less
likely.

根據GT的說法，安吉對大寶貝已有個定數。去年我們可以看到安吉並不想跟Posey。而在

作者的眼裡，簽下希蛙可能會使續簽大寶貝的可能性降低。

The C’s are well over the luxury tax as it is, so it is clear that while the
team does want to bring Baby back, they will only do it if the price is
right. If the C’s don’t bring back Davis, there are still affordable free
agent options out there at the big man spots albeit not ones as attractive as
Davis. Realistically though whoever the C’s bring in as a fifth big man
(Scalabrine being the 4th) would only have to go 10-15 minutes a game barring
injury since Rasheed will eat up the bulk of the bench big man minutes.

超塞已經差不多要繳豪華稅了，因此很明確的，要簽下大寶貝唯有用適當地價格才能簽下

。要是超塞不要大寶貝，仍然能在剩下的FA中找到大個子球員，儘管不像大寶貝那麼好用

。不過老實說，簽下第五個禁區球員(吉祥物算第四個好了)，一場比賽頂多也只能上10-1

5分鐘。因為希蛙會用得很頻繁。


Given the assumption that there are no major injury problems, (a realistic
concern given KG and Rasheed’s age) it would be unwise for the C’s to
invest too much money in the backup 4 spot when Glen’s minutes would be
limited thanks to the depth chart.

假設主力沒傷痛問題，那超支大寶貝並不是很好得選擇。

It has to worry fans that want Big Baby back in green that Joe Dumars has
shown the willingness to overpay at bit this offseason to get his guys (Ben
Gordon, Charlie Villanueva). Now that he has the cap room to offer Big Baby a
significant deal at a little under 5 million a year, if he does give Davis a
long term contract at that number, the C’s will have to think long and hard
about matching it. There are really no other big men on the open market right
now that could command that kind of money, so it seems only a matter of time
before Dumars makes Glen the big money offer he has been waiting for.

對於想要Baby留下的球迷很可能要說聲抱歉，因為Joe Dumars已經展現他就算要超支球員

也要簽下的決心(狗蛋、無眉人都是)。而現在他又有足夠的空間以接近5M來簽大寶貝，要

是他給大寶貝一個這樣長約，那超塞的眼光必須放遠以及該是時候放棄了。

以現在的市場上並沒有禁區球員值得那麼多錢，所以Dumars來迎接大寶貝似乎只剩下時間

的問題了\(〞﹌〝*)/。

Numbers wise in my estimation, Glen is not worth the 5 million a year on this
team and the team would be better served to sign a lower price short term
alternative to fill Big Baby’s role. Perhaps, someone like a Joe Smith, Drew
Gooden, or Rasho Nesterovic could fill Baby’s spot. Those guys are
downgrades to be sure, but will be a lot cheaper and could be had for only a
year or two commitment. Before we finish this up, let’s take a look at a 2nd
move from Monday that could affect the C’s pursuit of those guys.

作者認為大寶貝並不值5M/year，而且超塞應該要找一個低薪的球員以取代大寶貝的位置，

譬如，Joe Smith,Drew Gooden或是大N。雖然他們的數據不好，但是至少便宜多了，而且

只需簽個一或兩年。再來看看可能會影響超塞的第二個消息。


Move #2 Orlando Magic retain Marcin Gortat after matching the Mavericks’ 5
year/34 million offer sheet.

消息#2. 魔術留下鍋貼，讓小牛白出價了。

The loss of Gortat hurts the Mavs depth right now more than you might
imagine. The non-signing and loss of Brandon Bass (4 years/18 million) to the
Magic leaves the Mavs current roster with a very thin front line bench. After
Dampier and Nowitzki it consists of Shawn Marion as a potential undersized
6th man at the 4 (he might start anyway over Howard) and a couple of
throw-ins (Kris Humphries and Nathan Jawai) they received to make the
salaries work in the Marion deal.

小牛的禁區深度目前很慘，沒補強到還少一個Bass。蛋皮+德老外加一個第六人香妹(應該

是德老的替補)，還有兩個跑龍套的Kris Humphries與Nathan Jawai(這兩個只為了打平

交易香妹過來的)。


I mention this only because their need for big man could drive up the market
for the big man free agents I mentioned earlier if the C’s were to lose Big
Baby. Heck, they could even potentially get in on the Big Baby sweepstakes
even though Mark Cuban denied they had any interest in him a few months back.
With fewer options now, Cuban may have to reconsider although he could try to
fill the void with a trade as well.

小牛禁區也是很薄，因此也可能看上大寶貝。雖然庫班之前說對他沒興趣，不過現在FA

市場上的選擇是越來越少，故庫班也可能重新考慮。

So I guess my question to everyone as I work through all these potential
scenarios is what exactly is Big Baby worth to you? Zach Lowe took an eye
opening look at Big Baby’s numbers and performance on the floor this past
year, which should help everyone in coming to a conclusion.

Knowing that should ownership match a 5 million dollar offer at 3 plus years
if it comes at the expense of better players to fill the backup small forward
and point guard spots? Is Big Baby actually worth five million? What price
tag would you put on him? And would you consider signing and trading Davis to
fill a more pressing need (backup SF) on the team if it was likely you were
going to lose him anyway? I’m curious to hear everyone’s opinion on this as
it appears likely to shake itself out sooner than later.

所以到底該不該match 3年5M/year的大寶貝或是去找一個PP或小豆子的替補? 揪竟大寶貝

有沒有值5M呢? 你覺得他應該值多少? 或是你覺得拿大寶貝先簽後換去找一個替補SF來會

比較好? 我真的很好奇。



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                                                           by    ωaterζantasy

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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 220.141.47.145
→ piercepaul  :PP和Ray的替補比較重要 因為現在沒替補
→ rayensighner:我比較想知道就算可以用2.5m簽大寶貝，會想簽嗎XD
→ rayensighner:還是先去找SF.SF的替補?
推 tzar        :我覺得大寶貝很值得5M啊，只是我們簽不起而已
推 kevinGODnett:PP的替補還是沒有消息嗎？
推 chenaren    :我比較喜歡Powe
推 YMOLE       :大寶貝是很好用沒錯 但也有可能只是在隊伍的體系下
推 NLchu       :能在季後賽有這種效率，5M值了
→ NLchu       :如果今天薪資沒那麼緊，球團就不會這麼斤斤計較了...
推 david760615 :我也比較喜歡阿炮 因他夠硬防守好 雖然大寶機動性強
推 kevinGODnett:突然覺得有錢球隊真好  豪華稅付的不手軟
→ rayensighner:我倒覺得安吉公開說大寶貝只值2.5M是為了降低價格@"@
推 chan1006    :我比較想等powe的傷好
→ rayensighner:Powe真的只能等了QQ
→ piercepaul  :等阿炮的傷好+1
推 NLchu       :說真的，大寶是真的該留，畢竟是一個肯搶肯拼的內線
→ NLchu       :在隊版我就不PO數字，整體來說內線總是比搖擺人稀少
→ NLchu       :今年選的搖擺人不滿意，明年還多得是，但能用的內線?
推 geeky       :我真的不懂為什麼一定是非找PP的替補不可....
→ geeky       :現在的陣容明明就可以很靈活的調度2~3號的位子
→ geeky       :就算放TA替補好了 只要有兩到三隻攻擊能力強的球員
→ geeky       :TA只要防守不出問題其實就夠了
→ geeky       :而且KG也可以偶二打一下三號位  在加上吉祥物
→ piercepaul  :如果河流讓年輕人們多上 當然不用替補
→ piercepaul  :問題就在他不讓他們上場 你都沒看比賽嗎
→ geeky       :其實三號位的替補並沒有那麼急迫啊....
→ piercepaul  :.....原來有人覺得2.3號的替補不急 那算了
→ geeky       :那就是河流的問題了啊  明明人員夠硬要把自己當家球
→ geeky       :星操到爆...
→ piercepaul  :但換個角度想 或許年輕人們也都跟TA差不多
→ piercepaul  :沒打都不知道 現在說這些都沒用
推 r9210117    :PP都說他們還沒辦法上場了....
推 ihx00       :乾脆找Tim Thomas好了,至少是個高砲台.偶爾給些籃板
→ WinShot     :最好是可以融入防守體系的球員  安吉才愛用
→ WinShot     :                             河流...  囧
推 LrgS        :rumor 小牛要去搶ODEM了
推 kevinGODnett:                ODOM
推 gaiaesque   :                ROOM
推 TT123       :3號根本沒替補...怎麼不急
→ TT123       :TA只要上場就是問題
→ WinShot     :                OPEN將
推 kevinGODnett:話說馬大少走了  有需要再補一個PG進來嗎？
推 SexyCassell :3號位替補比其他所有的問題加起來都還要急迫
→ SexyCassell :不管河流到底有沒有練新人
→ SexyCassell :TA、B.Walker、Giddens在PP看來都還沒準備好
推 SexyCassell :除非你不想多看KG打幾年 不然就讓他打3號吧....囧
推 kevinGODnett:Tim Thomas正是買斷了
→ kevinGODnett:             式
→ rayensighner:有看到，不過好像有人說他防守不好? 是個6'10的射手
推 using       :我覺得5M實在是非常尷尬的數字阿 真是會開價呢
→ rayensighner:其實也還沒報價吧 只是貌似活塞可以這樣出XD
話說這篇外電有寫說只要在5.6M以下超塞都會跟
http://tinyurl.com/mzf8uc

Boston has said that it will match any offer to the 6-foot-9, 289-pound Davis
under $5.6 million.

嘖嘖，是真是假不知道=   ="
※ 編輯: rayensighner    來自: 220.141.47.145       (07/15 03:12)
推 Kirihara    :這樣太貴了啦
推 r9210117    :當然要放話阿
推 bhdog       :大寶貝 我也覺得只值3M左右而已
推 tseng40     :同意樓上 我也覺得頂多3M/Year
推 tzar        :ODOM值9M~10M的話，BIG BABY少說也有4~5M啦
→ piercepaul  :Odom絕對值千萬  大寶雖然上季表現不俗 但要成為獨當
→ piercepaul  :一面的禁區球員他還有一段路要走 他只是剛好適合我們
→ piercepaul  :的隊形 我不覺得他去其他隊會跟在這裡一樣出色 去馬
→ piercepaul  :刺可能還ok 因為TD跟KG都非常全能
→ using       :我覺得5M稍嫌貴的原因是上季根本是他衝數據的機會
→ using       :一般來說以他的身手根本不會有上季那麼多出賽時間吧
→ piercepaul  :其實都是看教練給不給上場吧 很多球員都是需要機會的
→ using       :恩阿 可是我覺得該給他的時間大概是第七第八人的份量
→ using       :就這個角色5M實在是很微妙的價錢 Odom就值千萬
→ using       :不過我連Bargnani都值五年五千萬了XD
→ using       :   覺得
→ using       :上面那句推錯= = 我的意思是狀元郎值得
→ piercepaul  :反正等著看吧~我覺得安吉應該又會神來一筆了~
推 feelike     :也許可以考慮用Big Baby先簽後換，來點什麼東西.....
→ feelike     :BBD如果用4.5百萬簽下來，我們也給不了太多時間.....
→ feelike     :就算Perk+KG+Rasheed都上28分鐘，BBD也只有12分鐘
推 Haskell     :我覺得不能這樣算時間耶  就像上季誰想到KG會傷這麼
→ Haskell     :重  perk也有舊傷  要有保險的機制才能增加奪冠把握
→ Haskell     :去年也是有PJ來補上Perk受傷不能打的情形 不然很難說
→ Haskell     :尤其現在是老人隊了  "先發整季保持健康" 這機率<1/2
推 feelike     :可是花4.5百萬買個保險???保險就是Rasheed呀....
→ feelike     :就算有一個受傷了，去夏季聯盟中抓一個擋一下
→ feelike     :戰力還是不會掉落太多的，我很喜歡BBD，但是有時候
→ feelike     :在商言商，這個保險買的太貴，恐怕不是球隊能負荷
推 WinShot     :夏季聯盟抓上來的河流根本不會讓他上場...
→ WinShot     :季後賽就會再看到跟今年一樣的先發打滿場
→ WinShot     :拼到後來每隻都帶傷上陣
推 feelike     :如果活塞開4百萬左右，就應該要Match嗎?
推 fascinated  :三號位置真的很缺 靠TA+那幾個菜鳥當PP替補 肖想冠軍
→ fascinated  :可能季賽還是能衝到60勝 但.... TA 吉祥物能賣就賣了
推 Haskell     :400我覺得是值得的  TA真的不可靠  要找個大鎖比較好
推 feelike     :這就是盲點了呀，四百萬買BBD，那要補SF的錢從哪來?
→ feelike     :要知道現在簽BBD四百萬等於八百萬呀，就會壓縮到球隊
→ feelike     :預算去簽SF的部份，我當然希望球隊可以像大市場一樣
→ feelike     :敢花錢補強，不過這也會影響到明年簽約的金額呀!!!!
推 azureliu    :連Gortat都賣到5年3400萬了...(／‵Д′)／~ ╧╧
推 feelike     :明年PP可能重簽，加上Ray、House的約到期，BBD的約不
→ rayensighner:只剩下雙年吧
→ feelike     :能太大，Rondo明年有QO，其實我們能有的空間不大
這裡有篇外電在聊   http://tinyurl.com/ma3jul
要是我們出大寶貝(5.9M先簽)+TA(2.5M)+吉祥物(3.41M)
去換Tyson Chandler(12.3M)
不過我個人覺得這不怎麼樣...因為下一季小錢還有1.3M的約才會走完，整個壓到我們
薪資。雖然有球員選擇權，不過怎麼看都不怎麼有趣XD。
※ 編輯: rayensighner    來自: 220.141.47.145       (07/16 01:59)
→ geeky       :乾脆叫bigbaby減肥改打小前一切問題就解決了(誤)
推 feelike     :第一、小錢傷病不斷。第二、你想要組成鋼鐵禁區嗎?