推 NLchu :(打哈欠) 07/16 09:56
推 acmonkey :沒有超賽的隊形 豆哥也會打的礙手礙腳吧 07/16 11:23
推 evilraistlin:我覺得不太可能放掉Rondo吧...養出來了阿... 07/16 18:41
推 rainingdayz :希望到時後三巨頭能再降價.....(幻想) 07/16 23:38
PS. 這篇是分析有哪些隊伍會想要再2010年來撈軟豆的，文有點長，不看也沒關係XD
新聞出處(必填):http://tinyurl.com/lgz9zn
作者:Zach Lowe
Now that most of the chips of fallen and the league has estimated the 2010-11
salary cap at somewhere between $50 million and $54 million (if you believe
that’s not a negotiating ploy), we can begin sorting out which teams will
have enough cap space after next season to offer Rajon Rondo a realistic free
agent deal. In doing this, I assumed that Rondo will have another very good
season in 2010, and that he’ll be looking for approximately $10 million per
season to bolt the C’s. (Remember, Boston will be able to offer him more
than anyone else under the league’s collective bargaining rules, and they’
ll be able to match any offer another team makes).
現在2010-2011最有可能的球隊薪資上限會落在50M~54M，我們可以開始分析哪些隊伍有
那個能力來搶軟豆。假設軟豆在接下來的一季打得不錯，而且他可能會爭取接近10M的
價格。(記住，超塞可以根據勞資協議來提供比其他隊多的薪水，也可以去Match其他隊的
出價。)
THE QUICK, ONE-SENTENCE CONCLUSION: The Celtics have very little competition
for Rondo, as most of the small number of teams with the cap space to sign
him have entrenched point guards or other priorities. Still, there are a few
teams out there to worry about.
一句話總結：超塞只有一點點的競爭者來搶軟豆，當然還是有一些隊伍需要注意。
I assumed a cap on the high side of the league’s early estimates (about $54
million) and eliminated any team who was already within about $8 million or
$10 million of that number. I also eliminated teams whose listed cap figures
for 2011 are a bit unrealistic. Portland, for instance, has about $19
committed for 2011, but that doesn’t include extensions for Brandon Roy and
Lamarcus Aldridge or Travis Outlaw’s $8 million cap hold.
我假設薪資上限接近54M，以及排除那些無法出8-10M的價格的隊伍，我也把拓荒者排除。
In general, I also assumed any low-level player with an option is going to
exercise it, and that any team with an option on a mediocre/low-level player
will renounce that player completely.
一般來說，我也假設有些low-level的球員會執行他們的一些選擇權，以及那些有選擇權
的隊伍會放棄一些中產或是低產的球員。
Note: All salary info taken from DraftExpress, Sham Sports and news reports
of recent signings.
(全部的薪資資訊是從DraftExpress(http://www.draftexpress.com/ )
Sham Sports(http://tinyurl.com/46qpn4 )以及最近的簽約新聞)
HERE ARE THE TEAMS LEFT STANDING:
‧ Chicago: The Bulls have about $35 million or so committed to their 2011
roster, assuming they renounce their rights to Brad Miller, Jerome James and
Tim Thomas–and I think that’s a safe assumption. To stick at this figure,
though, they’ll also have to renounce Ty Thomas instead of tendering him a
$6.3 million qualifying offer.
Of course, the Bulls already have a young point guard, don’t they? They’ve
also got ambitions of getting in on the Wade-Bosh bidding.
．公牛：他們在2010-11的薪資有大約35M是已經用掉的，假設他們沒繼續與大米，Jerome
James以及TT(這我們知道已經買斷了)簽約--我覺得這是保守的假設。而且他們還得不去
算Tyrus Thomas的6.3M的QO。當然公牛其實不太需要PG，他們早有了年輕的玫瑰不是？
而且他們的企圖也是在Wade跟Bosh身上。 不擔心。
‧ Cleveland: The Cavs will have about $24 million or so committed in 2011,
assuming they renounce both Z-man and the Big Second Banana and find a taker
for Delonte West’s partially unguaranteed $4.5 million deal. How likely is
that combination of three things? Ask John Krolik or Brian Windhurst.
Of course, Cleveland’s focus after next season is probably not going to be
on Rajon Rondo.
．騎士：2011年的roster他們會有24M被鎖死，假設他們不算大Z以及歐肥，以及不去履行
West的4.5M的部份合約。當然，騎士不會要軟豆。 不擔心。
‧ Los Angeles Clippers: The Clips helped themselves immensely by getting rid
of Zach Randolph ($17.3 million in 2011) in exchange for Quentin Richardson’
s expiring deal. Les Clips have about $34 million committed in 2011, assuming
they renounce Marcus Camby and Richardson and exercise options on Eric Gordon
and Al Thorton (all basically no-brainers).
Again, though, the Clippers have an entrenched point guard in Baron Davis. If
they manage to get rid of him, they could become serious Rondo players.
．快艇：快艇把肥約Zach給去掉(2011年是17.3M)，得到的是QR。他們的薪資在2011年會是
34M被用掉的，假設不包含Camby跟Richardson，以及Gordon跟Thorton執行球員選擇權。
Baron Davis已經是當家控衛了，要是管理階層想要交易他(13M)，那才會比較要重視的。
不擔心。
‧ Atlanta: The Hawks are at the very edge of our salary range here, as they’
ll be up to at least $42 million once you figure in the Mike Bibby and Zaza
Pachulia extensions plus rookie deals for their draft picks. They’d also
have to renounce Joe Johnson to get to $42 million; if they don’t, his cap
hold puts them well over the limit.
．老鷹：他們的薪資與我們的差不多，大概42M已經先用掉了。而且他們還要不算JJ的才
會是42M，總之，不擔心。
‧ Miami: Probably the most dangerous team on this list. The Heat have
literally nothing committed to 2011 beyond Dwyane Wade, who may or may not
opt out of his $17 million-plus deal for that season. Other than that, it’s
all team options (only two of which they are certain to pick up–Michael
Beasley and Mario Chalmers) and James Jones’s unguaranteed deal. Of course,
this could all change if Pat Riley caves and takes on some ill-advised
long-term contract. But if the Heat don’t sign Wade, Chris Bosh or LeBron
James (or perhaps even if they do sign one of them), they could come after
Rondo hard.
．熱火：可能是最危險的一個競爭隊伍。熱火在2011年沒啥約，D.Wade可能會跳或不跳
他的17M。剩下的都是球隊的選擇權以及James Jones的不保證約(他們可能會留下Beasley
以及Chalmers)。要是熱火不追典偉、龍王或是大帝(或是簽其中一個)，那有可能來追軟
豆。 有點擔心。
‧ New York: Another strong candidate if the premier 2010 free agents spurn
them. The Knicks have about $18.2 million committed to Eddy Curry and Jared
Jeffries (hi, Isiah!), plus $5.5 million in team options for Danilo Gallinari
and Wilson Chandler. Toss in a couple of rookie deals and assume they re-sign
either David Lee or Nate Robinson (but not both), and we’re approaching $35
million (especially if they choose Lee over Robinson). If they grab Robinson,
too, the Knicks may price themselves out of the LeBron-Wade-Bosh derby and
have to settle for someone on the next tier…like Rondo.
．尼克：另一個強大的競爭者。18.2M給了Eddy Curry以及Jared Jeffries(嗨，Isiah)，
加上Gallinari與Chandler的5.5M球隊選擇權。要是他們從David Lee或跳豆中選一個，
而他們有相當多的錢去搶大帝、典偉或是龍王，以及要是達到他們的目標，他們很有可
能再去搶一個，像是軟豆。
(我的os：要是依照尼克花錢不手軟的感覺....很危險XDD)
‧ New Jersey: The Nets only have about $18 million committed in 2011,
assuming they decide not to exercise team options on Yi, Chris
Douglas-Roberts and Sean Williams; renounce restricted free agents Josh Boone
and Jarvis Hayes; and renounce a bunch of cap holds.
But the Nets already have Devin Harris set at the PG spot.
．籃網：2011年只有用了18M，假設他們不簽易，Douglas-Roberts以及S.Williams；放棄
Boone以及Hayes。 不過他們有小哈了，所以不擔心。
‧ Houston: The Rockets are creeping over $40 million for 2011 between their
guaranteed deals (Yao, Shane Battier and Trevor Ariza for about $32 million
total), cheap-ish team options for quality guys (about $7.3 million combined
for Chuck Hayes, Aaron Brooks and Carl Landry) and whatever rookie deals
remain on the books from among the three second-rounders Houston selected in
the ‘09 draft.
They’d also have to renounce Tracy McGrady, Kyle Lowry, Luis Scola and Brent
Barry to reach this number, and, personally, I’d like at least two of those
guys on my team going forward (Scola and Lowry). So the Rockets are probably
out.
．火箭：2011年他們已經有40M用上了(光Yao,8d2以及高以愛就有32M了)，剩下的是
一些有球隊選擇權的球員(約7.3M，Chuck Hayes,小AB以及Landry)以及一些09年選上的人
。他們也要放棄踢咩、Lowry、Scola以及B.Barry。所以火箭大概是不擔心。
‧ Oklahoma City: The Thunder are a bit over $30 million in guaranteed deals
for 2010-11, assuming Nenad Krstic elects to take his $5.8 million player
option (duh). In theory, this leaves room for a run at Rondo, but: a) the
Thunder appear committed to Russell Westbrook at point guard; and b) Kevin
Durant and Jeff Green will be restricted free agents after the 2011 season,
so it’s not like the Thunder are going to be tossing around money after the
2010 season unless they want to go well over the luxury tax later.
．雷霆：30M已經用了，其中不包括Kristic(用選擇權放棄5.8M)。理論上，這是可以去搶
軟豆的。但是
a)雷霆已經有Russell Westbrook
b)雷帝以及Jeff Green將在2011變成FA…
故雷霆應該不太會去追軟豆，除非他們想繳豪華稅。 不擔心。
‧ Minnesota: The ultimate “in theory” team, since the Wolves will have a
ton of cap space if they renounce all of their cap holds and team options
(except for Kevin Love). But Minny already has a fairly well-documented
logjam at point guard. Kaaaaahhhhhhnnnnnn!!!! (Sorry).
．灰狼：這不用講了，不擔心。
‧ Sacramento: The Kings have about $40 million already committed in 2011
once rookie deals are factored in, and the guys at Cowbell Kingdom have
already thrown Rondo’s name out there as someone the Kings could/should
pursue after next season. The Kings could be a promising team if Tyreke
Evans, Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes continue to progress. But unless they
can get rid of Beno Udrih’s awful deal, they’ll have Udrih, Evans and
Sergio Rodriguez at the PG spot–provided they hang onto Rodriguez, who will
be a restricted free agent after next season. So it’s unclear at this point
how Rondo would fit in Sacto.
．國王：2011年國王將有40M已經被用上了，但是他們有想要軟豆的念頭。但是除非國王
要先處理掉Beno Udrih的約，要不他們會有Udrih,Evans以及Sergio Rodriguez卡在PG。
所以如果要軟豆的話，那也是頗奇怪的感覺。不擔心
So, am I missing any team out there with a realistic shot to make a run at
Rondo? The only one I can think of is Phoenix, but only if the Suns let Steve
Nash go (which is reportedly unlikely) and rebuild in a way that doesn’t
involve taking on enormous salaries from Golden State.
講到這裡，我有沒有漏討論到的隊伍？我唯二可以想到的是太陽隊跟勇士隊，但是除非太
陽要放掉Nash(這不太可能)，以及正在重建的勇士隊(他要追誰倒是比較廣的)。
If I haven’t missed an obvious suitor or two, the Celtics are in a pretty
strong negotiating position, considering how many free agents will hit the
market in 2010, how few teams have significant cap room and how few of those
teams have a need for a point guard.
要是我沒有漏掉明顯的競爭對手，考慮到2010年的龐大FA市場，有多少球隊有多的空間、
有多少球隊需要PG，超塞算是佔有主動權的。
I think the odds are pretty good that Rondo signs his next deal with Boston–
unless the Celtics prefer otherwise.
我可以比較相信超塞能夠續簽軟豆，除非超塞有其他打算。
PS. 軟豆有好幾場比賽都有著代表性的數據，會想拿大約真的不怎麼意外。
考慮到2011年要重簽隊上的大老，但是也別忘了注意軟豆。
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※ 編輯: rayensighner 來自: 220.141.47.145 (07/16 03:24)