→ shoxx:這算是測謊？ 06/28 16:15
→ mulkcs:應該算是預言 XD 06/29 00:22
Neuroscientists Can Predict Your Behavior Better Than You Can
ScienceDaily (June 22, 2010) — In a study with implications for the
advertising industry and public health organizations, UCLA neuroscientists
have shown they can use brain scanning to predict whether people will use
sunscreen during a one-week period even better than the people themselves can.
"There is a very long history within psychology of people not being very good
judges of what they will actually do in a future situation," said the study's
senior author, Matthew Lieberman, a UCLA professor of psychology and of
psychiatry and biobehavioral sciences. "Many people 'decide' to do things but
then don't do them."
The new study by Lieberman and lead author Emily Falk, who earned her
doctorate in psychology from UCLA this month, shows that increased activity
in a brain region called the medial prefrontal cortex among individuals
viewing and listening to public service announcement slides on the importance
of using sunscreen strongly indicated that these people were more likely to
increase their use of sunscreen the following week, even beyond the people's
own expectations.
"From this region of the brain, we can predict for about three-quarters of
the people whether they will increase their use of sunscreen beyond what they
say they will do," Lieberman said. "If you just go by what people say they
will do, you get fewer than half of the people accurately predicted, and
using this brain region, we could do significantly better."
"While most people's self-reports are not very accurate, they do not realize
their self-reports are wrong so often in predicting future behavior," Falk
said. "It is surprising to find out that some technique might be able to
predict my own behavior better than I can. Yet the brain seems to reveal
something important that we may not even realize."
The study, the first persuasion study in neuroscience to predict behavior
change, appears June 23 in the Journal of Neuroscience.
For the study, Falk, Lieberman and their collaborators sought people who did
not use sunscreen every day. The study group consisted of 20 participants,
mostly UCLA students, 10 female and 10 male. The participants had their
brains scanned using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) at UCLA's
Ahmanson-Lovelace Brain Mapping Center as they saw and heard a series of
public service announcements. They were also asked about their intentions to
use sunscreen over the next week and their attitudes about sunscreen.
The participants were then contacted a week later and asked on how many days
during the week they had used sunscreen.
Lieberman and Falk focused on part of the brain's medial prefrontal cortex,
which is located in the front of the brain, between the eyebrows. This brain
region is associated with self-reflection -- thinking about what we like and
do not like and our motivations and desires.
"It is the one region of the prefrontal cortex that we know is
disproportionately larger in humans than in other primates," Lieberman said.
"This region is associated with self-awareness and seems to be critical for
thinking about yourself and thinking about your preferences and values."
The researchers developed a model based on 10 people and tested it on the
next 10. They shuffled the 20 people in different ways to test the model.
There are more than 180,000 ways to divide the 20 people into groups, Falk
said.
"We ran a simulation of the 180,000 combinations, developed our model on the
first 10 subjects on each of the 180,000 simulations, and tested it on the
second 10," Falk said. "We saw a very reliable relationship, where for the
vast majority of the 180,000 ways to divide the group up, this one region of
the brain, the medial prefrontal cortex, does a very good job of predicting
sunscreen use in the second group."
This finding could be relevant to many public health organizations, as well
as the advertising industry, Lieberman and Falk said.
"For advertisers, there may be a lot more that is knowable than is known, and
this is a data-driven method for knowing more about how to create persuasive
messages," said Lieberman, one of the founders of social cognitive
neuroscience.
Neural focus groups
While 19th-century department store pioneer John Wanamaker (quoted at the
beginning of this release) advertised effectively for his stores in
newspapers, he still said he was wasting half his advertising budget -- only
he didn't know which half.
"We're learning something about which half," Lieberman said.
While advertising agencies often use focus groups to test commercials and
movie trailers, in the future they and public health officials perhaps should
add "neural focus groups" to test which messages will be effective while
monitoring the brain activity of their subjects.
"A problem with standard focus groups," Falk said, "is that people are lousy
at reporting what they will actually do. We have not had much to supplement
that approach, but in the future it may be possible to create what we are
calling 'neural focus groups.' Instead of talking with people about what they
think they will do, a public health or advertising agency can study their
brains and learn what they are really likely to do and how an advertisement
would be likely to affect millions of other people as well."
"Given that there are emerging technologies that are relatively portable and
approximate some of what fMRI can do at a fraction of the cost, looking to
the brain to shape persuasive messages could become a reality," Lieberman
said. "But we're just at the beginning. This is one of the first papers on
anything like this. There will be a series of papers over the next 10 years
or more that will tell us what factors are driving neural responses."
"We hope to build a sophisticated model of persuasion that may incorporate
multiple brain regions," said Falk, who studies the neural basis of
persuasion and attitude change. She has been hired by the University of
Michigan-Ann Arbor as an assistant professor of communication studies and
psychology and a member of the university's Institute for Social Research,
starting in September.
While some people have emphasized reasoning and emotion as key areas on which
to base advertising campaigns, a key question may be whether messages and
advertisements can be produced that "make people feel, 'This is about me and
is relevant to my preferences and motivations,'" Falk said. "Perhaps
effective messages reinforce our values, our self-identity, what motivates
us. We will learn much more as we continue this line of research over the
years."
Neuroscientists will learn whether they can predict behavior better and are
likely to obtain a more nuanced understanding of the roles played by
different parts of brain regions, said Falk, who this March received UCLA's
Charles E. and Sue K. Young Award for outstanding research and teaching. She
is interested in how to make more effective health and other public service
messages aimed at young adults.
"There is still much we do not know about how to get people to make healthier
choices," Falk said. "We hope to learn much more about what makes messages
more or less persuasive."
Different brain regions may be important for persuading people to tell or
e-mail their friends about a health message, product or service; Lieberman
and Falk are studying this issue of "creating buzz" as well.
However, the implications of the research go far beyond advertising,
Lieberman said.
"There are many applications beyond how you make a good 30-second
commercial," he said, "including how teachers can communicate better so their
students won't tune out or how doctors can convince patients to stick to
their instructions. We all use persuasion in some form or another every day."
Beware of hucksters
Some people are already offering "neuro-marketing," purporting to help
businesses sell their products and help candidates run their advertising
campaigns, Lieberman noted. They may, for example, recommend what colors and
sounds to use in commercials. Is this effective, or are they claiming
expertise they do not possess?
"In general, they are taking simple views of how different parts of the brain
work and are saying it is important to turn a particular part of the brain on
when advertising, and therefore you should do more of this or that,"
Lieberman said. "For instance, they will say you want to activate the
amygdala because that is the brain's emotion center. Typically they are not
looking at the relationship between what happens in the brain when someone is
exposed to an advertisement and what actually are the outcomes that you care
about. For example, do people change their behavior? Does someone spread the
message to others? Instead, they are giving generic analysis, and my guess is
that the vast majority of the advice they are giving is not accurate.
"To really understand the relationship between the brain's responses to
brands and persuasive materials and desirable outcomes, you actually have to
measure the outcomes that are desirable and not just say what should work,"
he said. "There are many folks claiming to be neuroscientists who have read a
little introductory neuroscience, and that is not enough expertise. It's
almost infinitely more complicated than that."
Co-authors on the Journal of Neuroscience paper are Elliot Berkman, a UCLA
graduate student of psychology in Lieberman's laboratory who will be an
assistant professor of psychology at the University of Oregon this fall;
Traci Mann, a professor of psychology at the University of
Minnesota-Minneapolis who was formerly on UCLA's faculty; and Brittany
Harrison, a former UCLA undergraduate student.
--
原始網址：
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/06/100623110114.htm
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作者: mulkcs (mulkcs) 看板: Cognitive
標題: Re: [新知] ScienceDaily-神經科學家比你更會預測你？
時間: Mon Jun 28 10:44:50 2010
腦部掃描看穿人心 可預測行為
http://www.jneurosci.org/cgi/content/abstract/30/25/8421
http://udn.com/NEWS/HEALTH/HEA1/5681762.shtml
（中央社華盛頓22日路透電）科學家今天指出，腦部掃描或許能比你自己，更能經準預測
你將做什麼，這可能為希望吸引消費者的廣告商或醫療官員提供有效工具。科學家找到方
法解讀「即時」腦部影像，可顯示看過防曬使用訊息的人，接下來那一週是否會真的擦防
曬。
加州大學洛杉磯分校（UCLA）的法克（Emily Falk）與同事在「神經科學期刊」（
Journal of Neuroscience）中指出，腦部掃描比志願受試者更精準。主導研究的心理學
家李柏曼（Mathew Lieberman）另外在聲明中表示：「許多人『決定』做什麼，然後卻沒
做到。」
不過有了功能性磁振造影（fMRI），科學家能看穿良好意圖，預測實際行為。功能性磁振
造影利用磁場測量腦部血流，這能看出哪個腦區較為活躍，但需要謹慎解讀。研究團隊找
來20名年輕男女進行實驗，他們接受腦部掃描時邊讀邊聽有關防曬用品使用安全的訊息，
其中穿插其他訊息，好讓他們猜不出實驗目的。
研究人員寫道：「第1天實驗時，開始掃描前，每個受試者指明各自前1週用防曬用品的情
形、他們下週使用的意圖以及對防曬用品的看法。」受試者看完訊息後回答更多關於自己
意向的問題，然後拿到含多種物品的禮袋，其中有防曬紙巾。
法克說：「1週後我們進行無預警追蹤，查看他們是否用過防曬。」約半數受試者先前準
確預測自己會不會用防曬，研究團隊2度分析他們的掃描結果，看看能否發現任何更精確
的腦部活動。其中1個腦區提供最多資訊，這裡是前額葉皮質的特殊部份。李柏曼解釋：
「從這塊腦區，我們可預測約3/4的人是否會比自稱的用更多防曬。」
（譯者：中央社林仟懿)
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原始網址：
http://scimage-news.blogspot.com/2010/06/blog-post_24.html#comment-form
這篇翻譯較為簡略，但ScienceDaily的文章將過程形容的仔細些。
實驗過程是，受試者將會讀或聽到使用防曬乳的重要性。
並問說受試者是否會在一來的一週內使用防曬乳。
研究發現，在MPFC的反應強度，會預測這些受試者是否使用防曬乳。
然而，另一種解釋是，MPFC或許只是觀察是否『言不由衷』的指標而已 XDDDD
我並不覺得這研究真的是預測人類行為啦 0rz
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