→ gentlebabyfu:不好意思，修掉了誰的推文？ 推211.159.140.177 12/21
當激情相互沖撞──海峽兩岸的不當行為
● 查爾斯‧霍金斯By Charles F. Hawkins
一個好友曾提出這樣的觀察：“激情應滲透著理性”。那是10年前他針對美國的公
共政策關于女性在軍中角色的辯論所說的，其實，這樣的觀察也呼應了目前台灣海峽兩岸
的緊張關系。
身為美國國防部門的前高級官員，我的友人在執行高難度的決策時，經常因了解雙
方根深蒂固的觀點而獲益。我的友人并不是周恩來或基辛格，幸好他不必在台灣的統獨問
題上做決定。
台海兩岸的激情會讓他不知所措。
激情的棘手之處在于，有時它透露太多了；當激情被煽動起來，就會失去理性和不
夠客觀。
几年前在華盛頓的一個午餐會上，一名人民解放軍資深上校告訴我：“如果台灣宣
布獨立，中國將會動用武力！”為了加強效果，他頓了一下才繼續說：“即使我們知道會
打敗仗，中?是會打！
這是很強烈的字眼。
即使是對一個旁觀者而言，中國在這方面的深刻感受也很容易被体察出來。最近在上
海西南外郊同年約十五六歲的高校學生的討論會上，我說曾到過台灣這個“國家”，
被一個年輕人指出我的錯誤。
在中國大陸，普通市民通常聲稱沒有政治立場，但台灣的統一課題肯定激發強烈情
緒。
而台灣的激情是更為分化的，一些人渴望獨立，另一些傾向統一。多數人希望維持
現狀──一种事實上已經獨立的狀態──以追求安定生活。
但是在台北，激情已霸道地駕馭了理性，就像在北京一樣。否則如何解釋政治人物
為改變憲法和獨立公投而進行的激烈爭辯？
恰恰是憲法賦予的民主讓許多台灣人民感到十分滿足，因為它給予他們選擇的自由
。一名台灣空軍資深上校向我解釋：“我們效忠憲法，而不是個別政党。我們宣誓捍衛憲
法，一如你們美國人宣誓捍你們的憲法。
這些，也是很強烈的字眼。這些說法在華盛頓的決策者和議員之間引起共鳴，他們謹
慎關注著，并且巧妙維持“一個中國原則”和“支持台灣（包括武力干預，如果需要的話
）以免中國大陸動武”的平衡。
然而，我們不能忘記，誠如北京和台北，就華盛頓而言，激情也是可以掩蓋理性的。
要使這個世界成為易于居住的地方，我們必然會經歷重重困難，人性就是如此。因
此，如何在統一and 憲制民主之間找尋一條和解的道路仍然是一大挑戰。假以時日，合并
可能會實現，那時，整個區域，整個世界都將受益。
与此同時，朝鮮的核武危机繼續醞釀，加上亞太地區的恐怖主義活動持續不斷，此
刻決不應該放棄客觀思考或背棄理性（其實任何時刻都不應該）。在外交手法上強調細致處理、集体決策
和協商机制的國際趨勢下，台灣海峽兩岸識時務的首腦們需要三思。
‧作者是美國資深防務問題分析家，曾在美軍步兵作戰部隊服役，廣泛游歷亞洲。此
文為本報（聯合早報）特約，蔡深江譯。
WHEN PASSIONS COLLIDE
Bad Behavior Across the Strait of Formosa
A good friend once observed, “Passion should inform reason.” He was
speaking a decade ago of the public policy debate in the United States over
the role of womenin the armed forces,
but he could just as easily have been addressing the current tensions
across the Taiwan Strait.
As a former senior official in the U.S. Department of Defense, my friend
often found it useful to understand the deeply held convictions of different
sides before making difficult policy decisions.
My friend was no Zhou Enlai or Henry Kissinger, and it is probably a good
thing that he did not have to decide between Taiwan independence and merger
with Mainland China.
The passions on both sides of the Taiwan Strait would have overwhelmed
him.
The problem with passion is that sometimes it informs too well; and when
passions become inflamed, reason is blinded and objectivity is lost.
“If Taiwan declares independence,” a PLA senior colonel told me over
lunch in Washington, D.C.a few years ago, “China will fight!” He paused for
effect, and continued,“China will fight even if we know we will lose!”
Those are powerful words.
The depth of feeling in China is evident to even the most casual observe
r. At a recent discussion with high school students─15 and 16 year olds─in
a southwestern suburb of Shanghai, one young man pointed out my error in saying
I had visited the “country” of Taiwan.
On the mainland, where ordinary citizens typically profess to be non-politi
cal, the matter of unification with Taiwan is guaranteed to incite strong
feelings.
On the Taiwan side passions are more diverse. Some yearn for independenc
e. Some favour unification.
Most prefer the status quo─a kind of de facto independence─and pursuit of
a good life.
But in Taipei, just as much as in Beijing, the arrogance of passion can
override reason. How else to explain the fiery rhetoric on constitutional
change and independence referendums by politicians seeking reelection?
Yet it is that very constitutional democracy that is so satisfying to so
many Taiwanese because it offers them freedom of choice. “We are loyal to
the Constitution,” a senior colonel in Taiwan’s air force explained
to me, “and not to a particular political party”. And, he continued, “we
are sworn to fight for the Constitution, just as you Americans are sworn to
do for yours.”
Those, too, are powerful words. And they resonate with policy makers and le
gislators in Washington, D.C.,
where a careful watch is kept over the delicate balance between the One China
policy, and support for Taiwan─including military intervention, if need be─
against the use of force by Mainland China. However,
it is well to remember, that in Washington, as in Beijing and Taipei, passion
can also obscure reason.
If the world were to become an easy a place in which to live, human nature
would dictate that we make it difficult. So the challenge of charting a course
that reconciles unification with constitutional democracy
remains. At some point a merger will likely occur, and the region─and the w
orld─will benefit from it.
Meanwhile, with a nuclear crisis brewing in North Korea, and continued t
errorist activities in the Asia
Pacific region, now is not the time to abandon objective thinking or discard
reason (if, indeed, there ever is such a time). In a part of the world where
subtlety, collective decision-making, and consultation are prized
diplomatic methods, wiser heads on both sides of the Taiwan Strait need to t
hink about that.)
The writer is a senior defense analyst in Washington, D.C., retired veteran
of infantry combat, and a frequent visitor to Asia.
--
陳湯有書曰：“臣聞天下之大義當混為一，昔有唐虞，今有強漢。匈奴呼韓邪單于已稱
北藩，唯郅支單于叛逆，未服其辜。大夏之西，以為強漢不能臣也。郅支單于慘毒行于
民，大惡通于天。臣延壽、臣湯，將義兵，行天誅。賴陛下神靈，陰陽并應，天气精明
陷陣克敵，斬郅支首及名王以下，宜縣頭蠻夷槁街邸間，以示万里，明犯強漢者，雖遠
必誅！
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 211.159.140.177
※ 編輯: gentlebabyfu 來自: 211.159.140.177 (12/21 01:23)