[翻完] 全世界都在看台灣的成功 A victory for Taiwa …

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全世界都在看台灣的成功

台灣主權的成功

台灣逐漸民主, 而他的民眾認為他是台灣人不是中國人.
by Bruce Jacobs

台灣的總統大選發生了所有事情. 這場競選充滿了對立跟誹謗言論. 有兩項公投選項讓中
國抓狂. 選前的一個下午總統以及副總統在競選時被槍擊. 贏的一方在1,290萬有效票中
只贏少於3萬票. 而輸的一方用沒有任何證據的流言質疑選舉也表現出缺乏領導能力.

台灣在民主的發展已經二十年. 在1990年初期台灣的領導者以及投票者決定使用直接選舉
來產生總統. 在1996年的第一場總統大選在任總統李登輝贏得54%選票. 中國意圖影響台
灣選情發射接近台灣的飛彈而事與願違.

在2000年執政國民黨的分裂讓民進黨提名的陳水扁總統贏得39.3%的選票.

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上一週末的選舉.因為2000年主要的對手合併在讓陳水扁面對艱難的選情. 連戰予宋楚瑜認
為他們可以輕易的贏得選舉但民進黨證明了"一加一不等於二".

連與宋都有重要的特徵就是他們都是舊有獨裁政府而歷經1990年民主化過程. 而他們使用
舊有的系統使用謊言以及毀謗主導他的競選. (陳有時也溫和的反擊. 比如, 他影射連戰打
老婆.)

1945年當國民黨員第一次到台灣, 他們強迫台灣人民成為"中國人"以及使用獨裁"白色恐怖
"統治從中國到台灣的政權. 並制服了當地超過85%的台灣人民.

陳水扁在腹部中彈中死裡逃生. 而有機會在未來四年進行改革. 因此台灣的民主化運動為"
當台灣人"帶來一線生機.

這個台灣認同在這個島嶼上成長迅速. 從1992年到去年底. 由權威學術中心舉辦的一系列
投票表現. 台灣民眾中認同自己是中國人的從26%下降到不到10%. 而認為自己只是"台灣人"
的從17%上升到41%. 而認為自己是台灣人也是中國人的仍然在40%初.

陳帶領他的新思維"台灣國". 在全國性的選舉中民進黨第一次贏得過半數, 即使是很少.

新的思維"台灣國"也帶領許多連宋的進選策略, 雖然很多投票者懷疑他對這個小島(台灣)
最終的承諾.

選後連戰的不紳士言語, 要求選舉無效, 造成國際觀察者的焦慮. 我相信連戰又再一次的
展現他缺乏領導能力 - 但是台灣能仍然能夠夠在這挑戰中存活下來並發展. 因為國民黨新一
代的領導者將會取代連宋.

許多西方民主國家,包含澳洲, 美國 與 日本 擔心陳水扁在總統大選同時提出兩項公投議
題. 然而陳水扁相信公投可以加速台灣民主化的發展.

中國(他宣稱台灣為他的領土)擔心公投議題會成為正式獨立的前奏. 而美國擔心導致戰爭.
 然而事實上這兩個問題一點傷害都沒有.

台灣中央選舉委員會把總統投票以及公投投票分開. 而反對黨慫恿足夠的民眾拒絕公投以
確保公投無法成立. 這撼動了陳. 但他在腹部中彈後活過來並有機會在未來四年內繼續進行
他的改革政策.

許多在中國大陸工作的外國專家說他們比較傾向連宋因為他們相信連宋比較能夠為中國帶
來和平. 事實上連宋並沒有完整的政策而大部分他們的競選證見類似陳水扁.

海峽兩岸沒有進展是因為中國拒絕與陳水扁談判. 自從1996年他們徒勞無功的在等待另外
一組候選人當選總統.

台灣對中國有許多很重要的意義.

  他有許多國外的資金可以讓中國經濟成長.
  更和平的台海環境可以讓中國減少他的軍事支出. 雖然中國的軍方仍然傾向繼續擴展

現在是最好的時間點如果中國想要談判. 他們將會發現一個吸引人以及合理的人可以與中
國基於和平以及尊嚴談. 但他們將不會發現另一個台灣的叛國者也不會有另一個接受中國台
灣是中國的"一個中國政策".

台灣已經是擁有獨立主權55年. 即使是反對黨當選後未來仍是.

Bruce Jacobs教授
是Monash University台灣研究組主任


: ※ 引述《Hinatsu (緋夏)》之銘言：
: : 重新整理
: : 然後把一些地方上色
: : 這篇文章把台灣這次大選的形勢
: : 與中國對台灣的關係做了說明
: : 也說了從1945年以來台灣人在認同上的轉變
: : 與對連宋的一些看法(蠻好笑的 XD)
: : 這不是對台灣不夠了解的人可以寫出來的東西
: : 所以裡面其實含有蠻多主觀成分
: : 聲明在先喔:)
: : http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/03/22/1079939577917.html
: : March 23, 2004
: : Taiwan is becoming democratic and its people feel they are Taiwanese,
: : not Chinese. By Bruce Jacobs
: : Taiwan's presidential election had everything. The campaign was full
: : of divisive and vilifying rhetoric. There were two referendum questions
: : that had China raving. On the afternoon before the election, the President
: : and Vice-President were shot while campaigning. The victor won by fewer
: : than 30,000 votes out of 12.9 million cast. And, to top it off, the loser
: : proved he lacked leadership qualities by challenging the result without
: : providing any evidence of fraud.
: : Taiwan has been in a process of democratisation for the past two decades.
: : In the early 1990s its leaders and voters decided to introduce direct
: : elections of the president. Incumbent president Lee Teng-hui won 54 per
: : cent of the vote in the first popular election in 1996. China's sending
: : of missiles close to Taiwan, in a blatant effort to cow Taiwan's citizens,
: : had backfired.
: : In 2000, President Chen Shui-bian, of the then opposition Democratic
: : Progressive Party, won with 39.3 per cent of the vote when the ruling
: : Nationalist Party split.
: : In last weekend's election, Chen faced an uphill battle because his two
: : main opponents in 2000 had united to form a joint ticket. Lien Chan and
: : James Soong thought they would easily win the election, but the DPP
: : proved that "one and one doesn't always equal two".
: : Lien and Soong had been key figures in both the old authoritarian government
: : and in the 1990s during the democratisation process. Yet they represented
: : the old system and conducted their campaign with lies and vilification.
: : (Chen sometimes replied in kind. For example, he implied that Lien beat
: : his wife.)
: : When the Nationalists first came to Taiwan in 1945, they forced Taiwanese
: : to become "Chinese" and ruled with a dictatorial "White Terror" regime
: : that came from the Chinese mainland and subjugated the local Taiwanese,
: : who account for more than 85 per cent of the population.
: : Thus, democratisation in Taiwan has brought a sense of being Taiwanese.
: : The sense of Taiwanese identity on the island has grown very quickly.
: : From 1992 until late last year, a series of polls conducted by a reputable
: : academic centre in Taiwan demonstrated that those who identify as only
: : "Chinese" among Taiwan's population has dropped from more than 26 per cent
: : to less than 10 per cent, while those who identify as only "Taiwanese" has
: : grown from 17 per cent to more than 41 per cent. The proportion who identify
: : as both "Taiwanese and Chinese" has remained in the low 40s.
: : Chen has ridden this new sense of a "Taiwanese nation" to power. For the
: : first time, the DPP has won a majority, even though very slim, in a
: : national election.
: : It is this new sense of a Taiwan nation that also guided much of the rhetoric
: : of Lien and Soong, though many voters doubted their ultimate commitment to
: : the island.
: : Lien's ungracious speech after the election, urging that the election be
: : declared null and void, has created some anxiety among foreign observers.
: : My belief is that Lien has again shown that he lacks leadership ability -
: : but that Taiwan will survive this challenge to its democratisation and move
: : forward, with younger Nationalist leaders replacing Lien and Soong.
: : Many Western, democratic countries including Australia, the United States
: : and Japan, were concerned that Chen had put two referendum questions on the
: : ballot paper at the same time as the presidential vote. Chen, however,
: : believed the referendums would enhance Taiwan's democratisation process.
: : China, which claims Taiwan as its territory, was concerned that the referendum
: : questions were the prelude to a formal declaration of independence. The US
: : was concerned that this could lead to war. In fact, the actual questions
: : were quite harmless.
: : Taiwan's Central Election Commission separated the presidential election
: : from the referendums and the opposition urged sufficient people to abstain
: : as to ensure the two referendum questions fail. This was a blow to Chen,
: : but he has survived a bullet to his abdomen and now has a chance of four
: : further years to implement his reform program.
: : Many foreign specialists working on China have said they preferred Lien
: : and Soong because they believed they would find it easier to make peace
: : with the Chinese. In fact, Lien and Soong lacked a comprehensive program
: : and much of their rhetoric resembled that of Chen.
: : The lack of progress in cross-Straits relations is a result of the u
: : nwillingness of the Chinese to speak to Chen. Since 1996 they have waited
: : fruitlessly for another candidate to become president.
: : Taiwan is important to China for many reasons. It provides a huge amount of
: : foreign capital, which contributes to China's economic growth.
: : A more peaceful cross-straits environment would also enable China to reduce
: : its military budget - although China's military may prefer to maintain the
: : tension that contributes to their ever-increasing resources.
: : If the Chinese want to negotiate, then it is time they talked to Chen. They
: : will find a charming and reasonable man who will deal with China on the
: : basis of peace and dignity. But they will not find a traitor to Taiwan, nor
: : a man who will accept China's so-called "one China" policy that includes
: : Taiwan.
: : Taiwan has been an independent, sovereign country for 55 years. It will
: : remain so. And it would have remained so had the opposition won the
: : presidential election.
: : Professor Bruce Jacobs
: : is director of the Taiwan research unit at Monash University

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