http://rotoamerica.com/mlb/articles_details.asp?id=1388
Arizona Diamondbacks 2006 Season Preview - By David Regan
By David Regan, Senior Writer
Offseason Moves
It's tough to see where any of the organization’s offseason deals made the
team better in 2006, but there are a few certainly worth noting:
Trade: RHP Javier Vazquez and $5 million to the White Sox for RHP Orlando
Hernandez and CF Chris Young
This move accomplished two things: first off, the team saves $14.5 million
over the next two years. Orlando Hernandez will be a free agent after 2006,
whereas the team previously owed Vazquez $24 million over the next two years,
including $12.5 million in 2007. This will free up significant money for the
team to pursue a top shelf free agent such as Barry Zito. Second, the team
nets its centerfielder of the future in Chris Young, whom some liken to a
young Mike Cameron.
Trade 3B Troy Glaus to Toronto for RHP Miguel Batista and 2B Orlando Hudson
Again, this frees up significant resources, as the team had owed Glaus close
to $33 million through 2008. Meanwhile, Batista is a free agent after 2006.
Orlando Hudson gives the team a Gold Glove second baseman to help out the
pitching staff.
Trade RHP Oscar Villarreal and RHP Lance Cormier to Atlanta for C Johnny
Estrada
After watching the debacle that was Chris Snyder and Koyie Hill last year,
this was a move that had to be made. Estrada hit .314/.378/.450 back in 2004
and while he likely won’t ever reach those lofty heights again, he’s still
a solid bargain at $2 million. The team’s shaky bullpen might miss Villarreal
however.
It’s clear what the Diamondbacks are trying to do:
Build around a minor league system stacked with young position talent.
Clear out some big contracts (Glaus, Vazquez).
Gear up for 2007.
Now if only they can find a taker for Shawn Green (due $19.5 million through
2007)…
2006 Preview
As you’ll see, this is a team long on veteran hitters and short on any
semblance of pitchers with upside beyond Brandon Webb. Craig Counsell /
Orlando Hudson isn’t anyone’s ideal #1/#2 combination and I suspect that
a guy like Conor Jackson with his plate discipline will end up seeing time
in the #2 spot. This is a team that is in full rebuilding mode, and the
maturation of young players like Webb and Chad Tracy combined with a farm
system loaded with impact bats should combine to make this team a perennial
contender, but not for another couple years.
Starting Lineup
SS Craig Counsell
2B Orlando Hudson
1B Conor Jackson
3B Chad Tracy
LF Luis Gonzalez
RF Shawn Green
CF Eric Byrnes
C Johnny Estrada
Craig Counsell is the likely leadoff hitter, but more by default. Expect him
to lose his job all-together by July in favor of Stephen Drew. Orlando Hudson
brings a little pop to second base. Expect something in the neighborhood of
.280 with 12-15 homers. The middle of the order appears solid with youngsters
Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy, and veteran Luis Gonzalez. Gonzo should have one
more .280/25/90 season left in him. The biggest question is whether Jackson
can hold off Tony Clark for playing time.
Clark if you recall, had a breakout 2005 with 30 homers in just 349 at-bats.
You pretty much know what you’re getting with the rest of the order with
Shawn Green, Eric Byrnes, and Johnny Estrada. Nothing spectacular there.
Starting Rotation
#1 – Brandon Webb, RHP
#2 – Orlando Hernandez, RHP
#3 – Miguel Batista, LHP
#4 – Russ Ortiz, RHP
#5 – Claudio Vargas, RHP
Webb is the clear #1 in this rotation and after finishing strong in 2005
(last 5 starts: 3-1, 1.72 ERA, 4 BB, 32 K in 36 2/3 IP), Webb appears poised
to ascent to being one of baseball’s top starting pitchers. He’s had an up
and down spring, but with an improved defense (Hudson) behind him, as well as
more experience, look for big things from Webb.
What does the team have after Webb you ask? Not a whole lot. Orlando Hernandez
isn’t awful and should be motivated by impending free agency, but he’s more
of a #5 starter these days than a #2. Batista fared well as a reliever for the
most part and asking him to go seven innings as a starter might be a stretch,
and that could be a big problem considering the weak bullpen (more on that in
a minute). Arizona signed Russ Ortiz to one of the worst contracts in baseball
history last offseason when they locked him up to the tune of $33 million over
four years. Ortiz was signed because he was a “winner”, having won between
14 and 21 games for six straight seasons with the Giants and Braves. Just goes
to show the fallacy in using wins to evaluate pitcher effectiveness. Claudio
Vargas rounds out the rotation thanks to the deal sending Brad Halsey to
Oakland for Juan Cruz. If Vargas is on your fantasy team for more than a month
, you have issues.
Bullpen
Relievers – Brandon Medders, RHP (DL); Luis Vizcaino, RHP; Terry Mulholland,
LHP; Juan Cruz, RHP; Greg Aquino, RHP (perhaps)
Setup – Brandon Lyon, RHP
Closer – Jose Valverde, RHP
After looking at the weak starting rotation, things continue to go down hill
once we examine the bullpen. Valverde has very good stuff and could be a solid
closer and indeed, he’s been talked about as a fantasy sleeper to target once
the top closers have been picked over. Beyond Valverde though, there’s more
than a couple question marks. The team’s second best reliever may be Brandon
Medders, but he’s nursing a sore shoulder after missing all of 2004 with a
torn labrum. Brandon Lyon can never be counted on to pitch a full year, and
Greg Aquino, who may make the team, has had his share of injuries as well.
A team with Terry Mulholland as its lefty / long-reliever has issues. Luis
Vizcaino and Juan Cruz could play significant roles as the season progresses
and at least they both have some upside.
Prospects
Justin Upton, SS – There is no question among scouts about his bat, but
where he’ll end up on the diamond is unknown at this point. He’s slated
to start in Low-A as a shortstop and Upton could force Stephen Drew to 2B
once both make their way to the big club.
Stephen Drew, SS – Should be the team’s starting shortstop by mid-season
and appears capable of .300/25/100 type seasons in his prime, which would
make him an All-Star middle infielder.
Carlos Quentin, OF – Excellent combination of power and plate discipline.
Is major league ready after hitting .301/.422/.520 last year in Triple-A,
but is blocked by Shawn Green and Luis Gonzalez at the corner outfield
positions. Should see time in the big leagues this year depending on the
health of the current starters.
Chris Young, OF – Young is recovering faster than expected after suffering
a broken hand while working out early this sping. Barring an unexpectedly
poor 2006, he’s likely to be the team’s Opening Day CF in 2006. He’s got
30/30 type ability.
Dustin Nippert, RHP – Probably is the organization’s second best starter
behind Brandon Webb right NOW, but will begin the year in Triple-A. Fear not
though, he’ll probably see 20+ starts this year due to injuries and
ineffectiveness in the current rotation.
Honorable mentions: Carlos Gonzales, OF; Miguel Montero, C
Conclusion
It’s a stretch to predict much more than 80-82 for the Diamondbacks this
year, but brighter days are ahead. By 2007, the organization’s considerable
stable of positional talent will be pushing for major league jobs. The team
will also rid itself of the contract of Gonzalez ($11.5M in 2006) after this
year, along with Hernandez’s $4.5M and Batista’s $4.75M. Shawn Green’s
eight-figure salary will be off the books by 2007, so by 2008, the team should
be positioned to field a lineup of high-upside talent at a relatively low cost
, thereby allowing significant resources to be directed to upgrading the
starting rotation behind Webb and by then, probably Nippert. Cue the refrain:
“Wait ‘til Next Year”.
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