http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5181
Arizona Diamondbacks
Max Scherzer, rhp, Missouri – 11th overall
Brooks Brown, rhp, Georgia – 34th overall
Brett Anderson, lhp, Stillwater HS (Oklahoma) – 55th overall
Dallas Buck, rhp, Oregon State – 86th overall
Cyle Hankerd, of, Southern California – 87th overall
The system is absolutely loaded with position prospects--bordering on
historically loaded--and so it's not surprising to see Arizona concentrate
on pitching, and scouting director Mike Rizzo has a well known preference for
physically big pitchers who throw hard as well. Many teams were scared off by
Scherzer's medicals, but if he's 100%, he's right up there with the Lincoln/
Morrow/Reynolds trio. Brown is another classic power pitcher who almost
pitched his way into the first round with an above average fastball and curve.
While Scherzer and Brown will be run through the system pretty aggressively,
Anderson is a rare high school selection for the Diamondbacks. Expected to go
in the 15-20 range, he was just too good to pass up. Buck is an even larger
risk than Scherzer, though not on a monetary basis. His fastball went from
the low 90s as a sophomore to the mid-80s this year, and he's coming in with
a strained elbow ligament. If he returns to form he's a first round talent,
but that's a pretty big if. Hankerd went higher than expected as a classic
polished college guy without a tool that really stands out. This just in:
Mike Rizzo is good at drafting.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/askba/261494.html
What did you think about Dallas Buck going to the Diamondbacks as a third-round
pick. I personally think Buck should get healthy, go back to Oregon State for
his senior season and possibly be a Top 15 pick next season, assuming his stuff
returns. At worst, I imagine he'd go in the third round again. Might he return
to Oregon State, or is it a pretty done deal that he'll sign?
Derick Handley
Salem, Ore.
I'll be surprised if Buck doesn't sign with the Diamondbacks. He wants to cut
his losses and get started in pro ball.
Buck projected as an early first-rounder coming into the year, and while he
has continued to perform well for the Beavers, his stuff has been down and a
lot of clubs fretted about his elbow. His sinker went from 89-91 last year to
the mid-80s for much of 2006, and an MRI showed a sprain of his ulnar
collateral ligament.
Arizona took him with the 86th pick in the draft, a slot typically worth
$440,000. Look for the Diamondbacks to sign him at a discount, perhaps a
little bit more than half that amount, because of the health concerns. That's
probably the best deal that's out there, and more than he might get if he
returns to Oregon State. If his stuff doesn't bounce back and/or the
condition of his elbow deteriorates further, he'll be sunk in next year's
draft. He also will have had zero leverage as a senior.
It's a good gamble with the chance to pay off well for the Diamondbacks. More
than most scouting directors, Mike Rizzo sets up his draft board and worries
about ability a lot more than signability. A lot of teams were concerned about
Missouri righthander Max Scherzer's elbow, but Rizzo gladly pounced on him with
the No. 11 choice in the draft. He also got a lot of value with Georgia righty
Brooks Brown at No. 34 and Oklahoma high school lefty Brett Anderson at No. 55.
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