2003 Arizona Diamondbacks
By Chris Reed (E-Mail the Author) and David Deardurff (E-Mail the Author)
7/19/03

We are here to serve. That is why I will no longer be updating the
Minors Tracker and David Dearduff will no longer be updating the
Majors Tracker.(What?) Instead, by popular demand, I will be updating the
team reports throughout the season while David handles the Major League
players Under-27 for each team. The season updates will tell you what each
team's future looks like, both at the major and minor league levels. The
new reports will contain stats and notes on the seasons of the top ten
players in the minors and on the Under-27 players in the majors..
The updates will be "lighter" than the annual team reports but I believe
everyone will be happy.

Majors Tracker

1. BRANDON WEBB (RSP) - DOB: 05/09/79
(97.0 IP, 2.41 ERA, 81 SO, 26 BB, 8 HR, 75 H) Terrible minor league stats
don't get you to the top of many lists. However, great major league numbers,
combined with a 3.41 ground ball to fly ball ratio do. Throw in an above
average K:IP rate and a K:BB rate above 3.00, and you have a bona fide star
with a "devastating" sinker. Think Kevin Brown
(also posted terrible minor league stats) - only better in his first year.
While he likely won't put up numbers much better than this throughout his
career,there's a good reason to bet he doesn't decline much.

2. JOSE VALVERDE (RP) - DOB: 01/24/79
(18.0 IP, 1.00 ERA, 23 SO, 9 BB, 2 HR, 9 H, 9 Sv) He has shown very little
control since his call up, but otherwise he is living up to expectations and
 threatening Matt Mantei's closer role (much to the dismay of Mantei himself
 who made the following comments to the Arizona Republic, "I don't have my
(freaking) job any more. It's a joke..."). The thing to be careful of with
Valverde is that he's already given up 2 HR this season - he also gave up 8
 in 47 innings last year in Tucson. With his startling K rate, if he controls
 the long balls, he could stick as Arizona's closer after this season.

3. OSCAR VILLARREAL (RP) - DOB: 11/22/81
(56.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 44 SO, 32 BB, 3 HR, 51 H) One of the most pleasant
surprises for the Diamondbacks this season, Villareal has always had the
talent, but the injury bug has plagued him. Initially thought to be a starter
(he will still likely end up in the rotation in the future if he can lower
the walks and pitches thrown per inning),
he has blossomed in his middle relief role. Bob Brenly has shown a lot of
confidence in Villareal who currently is tied for first in games pitched
in the National League. With a few less walks, Villareal's ceiling is as
high as any pitcher on the team.

4. ALEX CINTRON (SS) - DOB: 12/17/78
(207 AB, .304/.357/.478) To illustrate how over his head he is playing,
Cintron has 7 major league home runs in only 207 at bats. In 858 combined
at bats in 2001 and 2002, he also hit only seven home runs. He's not overly
 adept at stealing bases, although he possesses above average speed -
but his real strength is his infield glove. Look for him to stick with the
team for a long time with the recent trade of Tony Womack to the Rockies.
The Diamondbacks brass think he's the real deal...but his upside reminds me
of Omar Vizquel offensively, but not quite to that level in the field.

5. LYLE OVERBAY (1B) - DOB: 11/28/77
(223 AB, .278/.363/.413) Diet Mark Grace - all of the hype, but the results
aren't really that good. Actually, he makes Doug Mientkiewicz look like a
quality first baseman. The fact is, he hasn't developed the power that many
projected for him, and if he's not hitting .300, he's not going to cut the
mustard in the Majors - especially since while his glove is good, it's short
of stellar.
Still, he's a better pure hitter who could blossom into...Sean Casey.
But, that window is closing as he turns 26 at the end of the season.

6. JOHN PATTERSON (RSP) - DOB: 11/30/78
(41.2 IP, 6.91 ERA, 30 SO, 24 BB, 6 HR, 48 H) He once showed so much promise
 before a devastating arm injury that when he resurfaced with an exceptional
 major league debut last season, many of us hopped back on the bandwagon.
He never was able to find his groove this season, and Bob Brenly never
showed much confidence in him. With the emergence of Webb and Villareal,
Patterson may find his road to the majors blocked until he does something
that forces Brenly to keep him up. Don't look for anything to happen this
season.

7. LUIS TERRERO (CF) - DOB: 05/18/80
(3 AB, .000/.250/.000) He's always been an overrated prospect, and his
numbers in the minors still are giving off the same impression. One needs
to look no further than a 73:23 strikeout to walk ratio. For a power hitter,
while not acceptable, it is understandable. It is unforgivable for a guy who
has three home runs in 323 at bats in Tucson this season. Further, his power
projections aren't there, either, with an XBH:H ratio under 0.3. Still, he's
only 23 and finds himself in the majors, so the time to develop is there -
now that he's up, his clock starts ticking.

8. MATT KATA (2B) - DOB: 03/14/78
(100 AB, .330/.396/.560) At 24, he was unable to dominate in El Paso last
season. However, he's managed to turn his opportunity in the majors this
season into a profitable experience, one that has lead the Diamondbacks
to possibly consider him to be a part of their future. He's not incredibly
fast, doesn't walk a lot, and has never displayed a minor league slugging
percentage above .450. The numbers that he's put up are not the real
Matt Kata. Until I see differently over an extended period of time,
I'm going with the .700 OPS Peak Projection we gave him at the start of
the season - no better than a utility player. Fortunately, he's just a
stopgap for Scott Hairston.

9. ROBBY HAMMOCK (3B) - DOB: 05/13/77
(103 AB, .282/.312/.515) As a backup catcher, Hammock would have some
value. However, as he's currently being used, he's the Matt Kata of corner
infielders. One of the players who helped the 'Backs get through the loss
of Johnson and Schilling, he simply won't be able to keep this up - one
needs to look no further than the five walks and nineteen strikeouts in
only 103 at bats. He'll be lucky to stick with the team as a reserve for
the next couple of years.

Minors Tracker

1. SCOTT HAIRSTON (2B) - DOB: 5/25/80 - ETA: 2004/2005
(Double A - 208 AB, .298/.368/.505) Hairston is a tremendous hitter
with question marks surrounding his defense. He's made six errors in
47 games at second base - not great, but passable. It looks like Hairston
might be able to stick at second base provided he continues to improve.
Offensively, he's skills are undeniable and he could be one of the best
offensive second basemen in the game.

2. SERGIO SANTOS (3B) - DOB: 7/4/83 - ETA: 2006
(High A - 336 AB, .289/.370/.411) Santos has been a huge surprise for the
Diamondbacks, hitting very well in High A-Lancaster at a very young age.
Arizona has kept him at shortstop for the time being, though the general
consensus is that he will outgrow the position and move to third. His error
total is high (as you'd expect from a 20-year old), but with Chad Tracy
knocking the cover off the ball in Tucson Arizona will likely try to keep
him at short for as long as possible. He has more power potential than
his .411 SLG implies and he has great upside as a shortstop and as a
third baseman.

3. CHAD TRACY (3B) - DOB: 5/22/80 - ETA: 2003/2004
(Triple A - 347 AB, .314/.368/.447) Tracy just rakes. He doesn't take a lot
 of walks or hit tape measure home runs. He just smacks base hits at a rate
better than .300. Tracy has the glove to man the hot corner and the bat to
be an above average player at a position that has been a problem for the
Diamondbacks since Matt Williams' health and production took a huge
dive a few years back.

4. CHRIS SNYDER (C) - DOB: 2/12/81 - ETA: 2006
(Double A - 66 AB, .182/.270/.303 ... High A - 245 AB, .314/.414/.518)
Snyder is a 22-year old who the Diamondbacks picked in the second round
of the 2002 draft out of the University of Houston. He has great skills
behind the plate and dominated at the plate at the High A level. However,
he was too old for the league and he needs to prove he can hit at a higher
level of competition. The early results from Double A aren't great,
but it's not a big enough sample to say anything significant.
He has the potential to be a great defensive catcher with
average-above average offense for the position.

5. CONOR JACKSON (OF) - DOB: 5/7/82 - ETA: 2007
(Shortseason A - 106 AB, .255/.347/.434) Jackson was a tremendous collegiate
 hitter with excellent plate discipline and solid power. The Diamondbacks
landed the former third baseman in the first round (before Billy Beane could
get his grubby little hands on the slugger) and promptly moved him to the
outfield. Jackson hasn't dominated in his professional debut, but his 19
doubles point to more power in the future.

6. ADRIANO ROSARIO (RSP) - DOB: 5/16/85 - ETA: 2007
(Low A - 114 2/3 IP, 3.38 ERA, 74 SO, 24 BB, 3 HR, 114 H) Rosario is one
of the quietest prospects in the game. You'd think a kid who turned 18
while pitching in Low A-ball would get some attention. Especially when he
is posting a great ERA and showing great control. Even moreso when he has
a mid-90's fastball and good slider. The only negative in Rosario's
game is his low strikeout rate. This is likely because of his inexperience
and lack of a good breaking ball. Still his numbers are great for
his age and he is one breaking ball away from getting a lot of hype.

7. EDGAR GONZALEZ (RSP) - DOB: 2/23/83 - ETA: 2003/2004
(Triple A - 69 2/3 IP, 4.00 ERA, 38 SO, 17 BB, 2 HR, 69 H
Double A - 36 IP, 3.50 ERA, 30 SO, 11 BB, 1 HR, 40 H)
Gonzalez made his Major League debut against the Padres as the youngest
player in the Major Leagues. The 20-year old has really been pushed up
the ladder by the Diamondbacks brass and so far everything has worked out.
Gonzalez definitely isn't dominant, but he has solid control and keeps the
ball in the park. He has the potential of a #3 starter and right now looks
like a back of the rotation pitcher.

8. BRIAN BRUNEY (RP) - DOB: 2/17/82 - ETA: 2004
(Triple A - 14 IP, 0.00 ERA, 15 SO, 4 BB, 0 HR, 6 H
Double A - 31 1/3 IP, 2.59 ERA, 28 SO, 13 BB, 1 HR, 29 H)
Bruney is a flame throwing reliever who might be groomed to be a
 "closer of the future" if he was in another organization. However,
Jose Valverde has been racking up saves left and right in Arizona and
Bruney will likely have to settle for "very good reliever of the future."

9. CARLOS QUENTIN (OF) - DOB: 8/28/82 - ETA: 2007
(Injured) The Stanford product was the second of the D-Backs two first
round picks. The slugger will miss the season with Tommy John surgery, but
should bounce back 100% and be on the field in 2004. Yes,
he reminds me of Xavier Nady.

10. MIKE GOSLING (LSP) - DOB: 9/23/80 - ETA: 2004/2005
(Triple A - 101 IP, 5.35 ERA, 69 SO, 42 BB, 8 HR, 136 H) In the off-season
I wrote that while Gosling had a good ERA, his peripheral ratios were
below average. I said then that his success was either the product of
lefty guile or luck. Right now, the answer looks like luck. Gosling is
getting destroyed in the PCL. On the positive side, his performance has been
so awful it leads me to believe that something is wrong. Huh?
If something is wrong, then something can be fixed.
If something isn't wrong, then he just isn't a good pitcher.
We'll find out in the second half of the season and in 2004.